Operational Estuarine & Coastal Forecast Systems in NOAA s. National Ocean Service

Transcription

1 Operational Estuarine & Coastal Forecast Systems in NOAA s. National Ocean Service Eugene Wei, Frank Aikman III and Richard Patchen NOAA S S National Ocean Service Workshop on: Data Assimilation in Support of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems April 3-5, 2007 Acknowledgements to: Zack Bronder, Mary Erickson, Tom Gross, Kurt Hess, John Kelley, Hong Lin, Greg Mott, Lyon Lanerolle, Ed Myers, Dick Schmalz, Mark Vincent and Aijun Zhang

2 Outline Requirements for forecast systems The state of NOS forecast systems Operational Systems Management The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework Applications Ecosystem Geospatial NOAA Ocean Modeling Perspective

3 NOS Oceanographic Forecast Systems Requirements Support of safe & efficient navigation Water levels for under-keel clearance Currents for right-of of-way, maneuverability Emergency response HAZMAT Homeland Security Search & Rescue For environmentally sound management of the coastal zone Ecosystem applications Marine geospatial applications SST Salinity

4 ~~~~~~~~ Cook Inlet Columbia River Great Lakes (Mar. 2006) San Francisco Chesapeake Bay (Aug. 2001) New York Harbor (Feb. 2003) Delaware Bay Galveston Bay (Jun. 2004) St. Johns River (Oct. 2005) Tampa Bay Gulf of Mexico

5 NY/NJ Operational Forecast System Nested Grid (NYOFS) Operational since February 2003

6 NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System - result of technology transfer from Ohio State University/NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab Canada New York Forecast Guidance of Surface Water Currents For Lake Erie Pennsylvania Ohio - uses Princeton Ocean Model GLERL/OSU Great Lakes version

7 Forcing Data for Operational System Operational Estuarine Models Require Real- Time Observations and Forecasts of: Coastal Boundary Conditions Riverine Fresh Water Inputs Atmospheric Forcing ODAAS: Operational Data Acquisition and Archive System

8 Atmospheric Forcing Nowcasts: Local Analysis & Interpolation Lake Erie Surface Wind Analysis Forecasts: NWS/NCEP operational models NAM (WRF) Global Forecast System (GFS) RUC

9 Coastal Boundary Conditions NWS Operational Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) NOS Experimental East Coast Data Assimilation (ECDA) NOS Gulf of Mexico (NGOM)

10 Estuarine Fresh Water Inputs Riverine fresh water inputs are important: Affects the estuarine stratification Produces the density-driven driven circulation Buoyancy effects on ship UKC Salinity determination NWS River Forecast Centers: Forecast guidance at points Hourly USGS observed transport 6 hourly forecasts of discharge NWS Mid-Atlantic RFC Inputs

11 Individual Model Systems NOAA/NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework * Standardized for any model at any location REAL-TIME DATA INGEST QA/QC (CORMS) 24 x 7 NOS OPERATIONAL MODELS FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE (water level, water temp, currents, & salinity) PRODUCTS (web pages and digital pt. & gridded data) FOR USERS QA/QC (CORMS) 24 x 7 * Consistent with IOOS (DMAC); the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF); and COARDS/CF Conventions

12 Ecosystem Applications of Hydrodynamic Models Ecosystems: Noxious biota sea nettle probabilities Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) red tide in Gulf of Mexico Hazardous materials (HAZMAT) dispersion SST Salinity Likelihood of Chrysaora Future: coupling with models for water w quality; sediment transport; and nutrient n impacts

13 Development of a West Florida Shelf 3D Prediction System Coupling of Basin Model to Shelf/Estuary Model (for HABs) GOM model nodes Gulf of Mexico West Florida Shelf Tampa Bay Charlotte Harbor

14 nowcoast GIS web mapping portal to real-time coastal observations and NOAA forecasts Geospatial Applications Vdatum To integrate bathymetry and land topography into a digital elevation model On-map display + Geo-referenced hyperlinks NOAA/NCEP daily SST analysis Resolve NOAA-USGS shoreline inconsistencies

15 On-going Technical Issues Forecast uncertainty estimation ensemble averaging Data assimilation techniques HF Radar; altimetry; IOOS data; etc. Higher spatial resolution in key areas (e.g. in navigation channels; for storm surge and inundation modeling) Nesting vs. unstructured grids; Finite difference, element and volume approaches Model coupling Riverine-estuarine-coastal-basin; Hydrodynamic-wave; hydrodynamic-sediment transport physical-biogeochemical coupling (ecological; water quality; habitat) Establish a series of Modeling Evaluation Environments (MEE) to evaluate existing and emerging modeling technologies to select appropriate community models to support requirements for models to address navigational, inundation, and ecological

16 Broader NOAA Perspective

17 Community Ocean Modeling and Analysis: IOOS: Added value provided by focused integrating efforts IOOS provides the added value of integration and interoperability Advance data assimilation techniques in step with new observation technology Observing System Experiments (OSE and OSSE) Leveraging of non-federal modeling efforts Community standards and interoperability Existing NOAA Modeling Infrastructure that Supports IOOS (Mission Driven) Deep Ocean: Coastal Ocean: Developing: HYCOM, MOM, WW III, GODAS Hydrodynamic Port, Estuary and Shelf models (POM, ROMS, ADCIRC, etc.) Ecological Models (HAB) ESMF, Coupled Systems, Multdisciplinary models

18 Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and Forecasting OBSERVATIONS Satellite In situ OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION CLIMATE FORECAST OCEAN FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN BOUNDARY SPECIFICATION MODEL ATTRIBUTES: Global to Regional Scale MODEL ATTRIBUTES: Global to Regional Scale MODEL ATTRIBUTES: Regional to Local Scale Rapidly Relocatable Shared history, coding, and data processing OPERATIONAL OCEAN FORECASTS Climate Forecast System Real-Time Ocean Forecast System Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System

19 Developing NOAA Strategy Research Phenomena of Interest Observing Systems Operations Products and Services Time Time ENSO Update Giant Bluefin Tuna HAB Bulletin Space Space Operational Ocean and Coastal Forecast Guidance NOS, NWS Ops Observations & OSSE IOOS, NESDIS, OAR, JCSDA Data Assimilation & OSE NESDIS, NWS, OAR, JCSDA

20 To Summarize Requirements for coastal ocean forecasts The current state of NOS forecast systems Operational Systems Management The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework Applications Ecosystem Geospatial NOAA Ocean Modeling Perspective

21 Geospatial Applications nowcoast GIS web mapping portal to realtime coastal observations and NOAA forecasts Vdatum To integrate bathymetry and land topography into a digital elevation model

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