A Realtime Forecasting System for the Chesapeake Bay Tributaries: Interoperability and Metadata for Automation
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1 A Realtime Forecasting System for the Chesapeake Bay Tributaries: Interoperability and Metadata for Automation David Forrest Virginia Institute of Marine Science
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3 East Coast ELCIRC grid Mixed quad/tri grid nodes elements 1 or 30 layers Smallest: 1114 m^2 Largest: 3409 km^2 (30m to 50,000m sq) Forcing: Tides Winds,Pressure Combined Winds NAM AWIP12 Weatherflow 2km Produces outer boundary for inundation and surge models
4 James & York River Detail
5 Hampton Roads Model near VIMS
6 Global or National Scale Winds for Research Models Small number of models: Global Forecast System (GFS) North American Meso(NAM) NARR- North American Reanalysis Format: Gridded Binary (GRIB) Small number of relevant grids defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WMO #1 5 Global WMO #2 2.5 Global WMO #3 1 Global WMO # Global WMO #212 32km CONUS WMO #218 12km CONUS For researching specific events, scientists commonly use one-off conversions or hard coded solutions.
7 Regional and Local Scale Winds for Real Time Modeling Localized atmospheric models use nonstandard grids for higher resolution coverage of regions of interest (e.g, 8km, 4km, 2km) Local modelers and archivists often use subsets of larger models for space and speed concerns Interoperability with local models requires use of metadata about the local models
8 File Level Metadata filename: rams-2km_chesapeake path: file global attributes: dimensions: g0_lat_0 = 206 g0_lon_1 = 162 lv_isbl2 = 14 variables: float PRES_GDS0_SFC_10 ( g0_lat_0, g0_lon_1 ) center : US National Weather Service - NCEP (WMC) long_name : Pressure units : Pa _FillValue : 1e+20 level_indicator : 1 gds_grid_type : 0 parameter_table_version : 2 parameter_number : 1 model : Global Wind-Wave Forecast Model forecast_time : 0 forecast_time_units : minutes initial_time : 10/30/2009 (00:00)... float g0_lat_0 ( g0_lat_0 ) long_name : latitude GridType : Cylindrical Equidistant Projection Grid units : degrees_north Dj : Di : Lo2 : La2 : Lo1 : La1 :
9 Storm Surge Modeling Process Download Atmospheric Model Output Interpolate in space to unstructured grid node points Interpolate in time to match model time step Assemble Hindcast/Nowcast data with Forecast data (Assimilation) Configure surge runs for synoptic time Submit Runs Post-process output for analysis, visualization, and sharing, and next assimilation step Repeat
10 Noreaster
11 Combining Forecasts Need continuity between prior runs and forecast run
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14 Storm Surge Modeling Process Download Atmospheric Model Output Interpolate in space to unstructured grid node points Interpolate in time to match model time step Assemble Hindcast/Nowcast data with Forecast data (Assimilation) Configure surge runs for synoptic time Submit Runs Post-process output for analysis, visualization, and sharing, and next assimilation step Repeat
15 Conclusions Working with local atmospheric modelers provides high quality winds for storm surge and inundation modeling, but requires more data management infrastructure and automation than research models. Standardization of data and metadata enables interoperability with data providers modelers and data consumers The flexibility provided by using the metadata enables near-real-time research and realtime forecasting
16 End
17 Atmospheric Models Synoptic Times: 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z Surface and MSL winds and pressures Models: GFS 0.5 degree X 3hr for 84 hr NAM (AWIP12): 12km grid X 3hr for 84 hr Weatherflow: 8km and 2km grids X 1hr for 36hr Wakefield WRF-GFS: (8km or 4km) X 1hr for 24hr Wakefield WRF-NAM: (8km or 4km) X 1 hr for 24hr
18 Inundation Model Hampton Roads
19 Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Results for Isabel Surge Ensemble Image courtesy of Noblis
20 Inundation Grids DC/Upper Potomac Hampton Roads VA Dorchester, MD York River Forcing: East Coast ELCIRC U,V,Pressure Ensemble of Winds GFS 0.5deg NAM 12km WRF-NAM WRF-GFS Weatherflow
21 Gloucester Point Tide Gauge Damaged
22 Inundation Model Dorchester
23 Dorchester Land Cells
24 Dorchester Detail
25 Potomac Inundation Grid Extent
26 Potomac Inundation Grid Detail
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