The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Steve Koch, NOAA/FSL

Transcription

1 The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Steve Koch, NOAA/FSL A facility where the NWP research and operational communities interact to accelerate testing and evaluation of new models and techniques for research applications and operational implementation, without interfering with current operations Unidata presentation 7 February 2005

2 DTC Accomplishments since April 2003 Strong working relationship between central DTC partners (FSL and NCAR), NCEP, and AFWA Completed the basic WRF Reference Code (including NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and NCAR Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamic cores) Ported NCEP Post and Verification codes and the NMM to ijet (also transferred to NCAR, NCEP, & AFWA computers) for use in the Test Plan work SI able to initialize NMM WRF (joint EMC/FSL effort) Visiting scientist program initiated in summer 2004 Completed WRF Test Plan: WRF EM core implemented at EMC as part of Initial Operating Capability

3 WRF Test Plan: Getting to the NCEP IOC DTC demonstrated the capabilities of the candidate dynamical cores to qualify them for a 6-member WRF IOC ensemble system to run daily in High Resolution Window (HRW) domains: = NCEP NMM + NCAR ARW dynamical WRF cores + NMM and ARW cores with switched physics packages + Model variants using bred Initial / Boundary Conditions Ensemble should improve accuracy over a single deterministic forecast and a measure of uncertainty IOC implemented 21 Sept 2004, but with only 2 members (the two dynamical cores without physics swapping). Full 6-member ensemble is scheduled for May 2005 implementation at NCEP.

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5 DWFE Core Objectives Two primary operational objectives: 1. Compare Eta-12 to WRF run at 5 km grid spacing with explicit convection (no CP scheme) over CONUS during a winter season 2. Expose forecasters to future WRF capabilities before WR-NAM Two primary research objectives: 1. Do encouraging 4-km BAMEX WRF runs (summer 03, 04) provide forecast value during winter and for longer lead times (~48h) than in BAMEX? 2. Determine extent to which gravity waves, lake-effect snow, CAD, coastal fronts, etc. can be skillfully forecast

6 DWFE WRF Model Domain DWFE domain covers the Gulf of Mexico, Canadian cold air source, Gulf Stream, and upstream conditions

7 DWFE WRF Model Configuration FSL and NCAR are running 2 different versions of WRF: 2 different Dynamical Cores (NMM & ARW) 2 different Physics Packages (NCEP & NCAR) Explicit Convection (run without CP scheme) Uses 38 levels, 5-km resolution Initialized at 0000 UTC, forecasts out to 48 hours Initial and boundary conditions from operational Eta: 00 UTC Eta212 grids for both runs These grids have a resolution of 40 km

8 WRF is a modeling system, not a model WRF is designed so that model configurations can be interchanged easily WRF makes it easy to: create new model components share parameterizations efficiently transfer research findings to operations NMM core EM core NCEP mixed Kessler MP Purdue-Lin Ferrier MP KF CP BMJ Grell Explicit PBL, etc Etc

9 DWFE WRF Model Physics Suites Run 1: ARW, NCAR Physics Suite NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM) WSM 5-class microphysics No cumulus parameterization Yong-Sei University (YSU) PBL Dudhia shortwave RRTM longwave Run 2: WRF-NMM, NCEP Physics Suite NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM) Ferrier microphysics (as in Eta) No cumulus parameterization Mellor-Yamada-Janjic 2.5 PBL (as in Eta) Eta (Lacis-Hansen shortwave) Eta (Fels-Schwartzkopf longwave)

10 DWFE Dissemination of Model Products FX-Net and AWIPS (by 1400 UTC) offers diagnostic flexibility and ability to see full details DTC web site (and to JOSS):

11 Forecaster Preparation for the DWFE An Operational Introduction to the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Modeling System 5-km WRF BMJ NWS-NCSU CSTAR VISITVIEW PRESENTATION RFC 10-km analysis 5-km WRF explicit Gary Lackmann, NCSU With contributions from Michael Brennan, Stephen Jascourt, Steve Koch, Jeff Waldstreicher, Kelly Mahoney, David Novak, Wei Wang, WRF Tutorial Class & others 1

12 DWFE Verification Activities On this page will be links to these verification tools: (1) Grid-to-Point precipitation tool: produced using the FSL Real-Time Verification System (RTVS), this verification tool takes model forecast values and interpolates them to hourly HADS gauge locations. Statistics are provided for whatever models, forecast period, and overall time period one chooses. (2) VSDB web tool: forecast values are compared with surface and upper-air rawinsonde observations that are gathered by NCEP for performing their next model analysis. Statistics will also be available for Grid-to-Grid precipitation. (3) Ebert-McBride Grid-to-Grid precipitation tool: an entity-based approach, which decomposes the total forecast error into such components as displacement, volume, and pattern error of Contiguous Rain Areas. Technique was applied by FSL to verification of mesoscale convective systems in IHOP.

13 Eta-12 WRF-ARW WRF-NMM RTVS precipitation verification of 6-h forecasts over the entire DWFE domain 10 Jan - 2 Feb

14 Eta-12 WRF-ARW WRF-NMM RTVS precipitation verification of 24-h forecasts over the entire DWFE domain 10 Jan - 2 Feb

15 DWFE uses the NCEP Verification System

16 DWFE uses the NCEP Verification System

17 Archival of DWFE Model Runs We are archiving the 3-hourly output files from both the ARW and NMM runs on the NCAR MSS at full model resolution on a daily basis for use in future research studies. We are archiving two types of output files for each model: 1) wrfout files NETCDF format Raw model output on its native grid 2) post-processed files (meso.awpdwfe) GRIB format Model fields run through NCEP post processor Post processor interpolates raw output to constant pressure surfaces and then to a common horizontal grid

18 Examples of Phenomena Forecast by DWFE WRF Models FSL is also making available on its FX-Net system the ability to display the 8-10 km High-Resolution Window (HRW) domain WRF model runs from NCEP

19 Lake Effect Snowbands: 17 January 2005

20 KBUF 1835Z Base Reflectivity WRF-ARW 18h Forecast Precipitation for 1800 UTC

21 hpa Lapse Rates Forecast by NMM at 1200 UTC WRF-NMM 18h Forecast Precipitation for 1800 UTC

22 Narrow Reflectivity Bands: 23 January 2005

23 ARW 3-h forecast Composite Reflectivity Lake-effect snowbands Lake-effect snowbands Narrow Cold- Frontal Rainband Narrow Cold- Frontal Rainband 0600 UTC Radar Mosaic

24 Topographically forced Snowbands in Blizzard of 23 January 2005

25 Total Snow Accumulation Hudson Valley CT River Valley

26 WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F24

27 WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F27 988

28 WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F30 982

29 STMAS 5-km Surface Mesoanalysis for 0300 UTC 995

30 Curiosities: Potential Vorticity Streamers Downwind of Mountain Peaks 2 February 2005

31 700 hpa Vertical Vorticity from 12h WRF-NMM Forecast

32 Curiosities: Reflectivity Structures in Marine Boundary Layer 23 January 2005

33 Cloud Streets Marine Stratus Mesoscale Cellular Convection

34 Curiosities: Diabatically-generated Mesovortex over Lake Erie 22 January 2005

35 STMAS Analysis for 1900 UTC 22Jan05

36 ARW-5 18h Forecast for 1800 UTC 22Jan05

37 Eta-12 18h Forecast for 1800 UTC 22Jan05

38 Concluding Statements The DTC is producing a very large set of valuable and accessible high-resolution model data for numerical modeling and mesoscale process research studies. The DTC is creating a unique and powerful infrastructure for the research community to participate in the testing and evaluation of contributed model codes with the potential to lead to future operational improvements.