Ensemble Trajectories and Moisture Quantification for the Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Event
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1 Ensemble Trajectories and Moisture Quantification for the Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Event Chasity Henson and Patrick Market Atmospheric Sciences, School of Natural Resources University of Missouri 19 September 2017 E1 Tropical Weather
2 Acknowledgements University of Missouri Research Board PRECIP Missouri EPSCoR Missouri Transect This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Awards AGS and IIA Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation or the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
3 Acknowledgements National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale & Microscale Meteorology (MMM) Lab Wei Wang Chris Davis Alicia Bentley, University at Albany, SUNY Computational and Information Systems Lab (CISL) Cheyenne (doi: /d6rx99hx) Data Support Section Sponsored by the National Science Foundation
4 Event Summary NOAA 500-mb analysis for 1200 UTC 02 October 2015, displaying an extratropical cyclone centered over Alabama with Hurricane Joaquin located near the Bahamas. NOAA surface analysis for 1200 UTC 02 October 2015, displaying a stationary front just off the East Coast with Hurricane Joaquin located near the Bahamas.
5 Event Summary a b Visible satellite images of Hurricane Joaquin and the associated moisture plume directed towards South Carolina at (a) 1200 UTC 03 October 2015 and (b) 1200 UTC 05 October Images captured by NOAA s GOES-East satellite.
6 Event Summary Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) 1200 UTC 03 October 2015 PW (shaded, mm) hPa ascent (black) hPa layer-averaged PV (red, PVU) hPa irrotational wind (vectors, m s -1 ) 250-hPa wind speed (shaded, m s -1 ) Image provided by Alicia Bentley. [mm] [m s -1 ]
7 Observed sounding from Charleston, SC National Weather Service at 0000 UTC 04 October Temperature ( C) is represented by the abscissa and pressure (mb) is shown on the ordinate. Images obtained using The Universal RAwinsonde OBservation program (RAOB).
8 Research Goal Determine role of each feature Hurricane Extratropical Cyclone Coastal Front Determine cause of convection Hypothesis: front lifts parcel to LFC Total observed precipitation in inches for South Carolina beginning 0000 UTC 01 October 2015 and ending 1100 UTC 05 October Image courtesy of the National Weather Service Forecast Offices in South Carolina and North Carolina.
9 Methodology Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Control Simulation of actual event No_Joaquin Removal of hurricane vortex Fredrick et al Tang et al Verification Model Evaluation Tools (MET) v5.1 Trajectory Analysis Read/Interpolate/Plot (RIP) v4.5
10 Model Specifications Advanced Research WRF (ARW) Version Domains d01: 15-km grid spacing d02: 3-km grid spacing Start: 0000 UTC 01 October 2015 End: 1200 UTC 05 October 2015
11 Model Specifications Initial conditions from ECMWF (0.141 ) 50 vertical levels, model top of 50 hpa Schemes: WSM 6-class microphysics YSU boundary layer Revised MM5 Monin-Obukhov surface layer Unified Noah land surface RRTMG longwave and shortwave radiation Tiedtke cumulus (d01 only)
12 MET/MODE Verification Total Precipitation (mm) Observation Control d02 Earth Observation Laboratory (EOL) of NCAR
13 Verification 20 in. Observation Control d02 Red Cent Dist Angle Diff Area Ratio 0.62 Interest 0.93
14 Control d01 No_Joaquin 1200 UTC 03 October 2015 Sea Level Pressure (hpa) 500-mb Height (m) 500-mb Relative Humidity (%)
15 Control d02 No_Joaquin 0000 UTC 01 October UTC 05 October 2015
16 6-hour Backward Trajectories Initiated: 1200 UTC 03 October 2015 A Trajectory Vertical Level at A Height (km) at A Pressure (mb) at A Red Orange Green Blue Violet B
17 1200 UTC 03 October 2015 Cross Section Potential Vorticity (PVU) Potential Temperature ( C) Circulation Vectors (m s -1, dpa s -1 ) A B A B
18 1200 UTC 03 October 2015 Cross Section Potential Vorticity (PVU) Potential Temperature ( C) Circulation Vectors (m s -1, dpa s -1 ) A B A B
19 1130 UTC 03 October 2015 S1 Skew T A S1 Parcel Diagnostics Pressure: 938 mb LFC: 605 mb Vertical Vel: 24.9 cm s -1 Temp: 22.8 C PW-WV: 54 mm A B B Temperature ( C) Dewpoint Temperature ( C) Horizontal Wind Vectors (m s -1 )
20 1135 UTC 03 October 2015 S2 Skew T A S2 Parcel Diagnostics Pressure: 908 mb LFC: 858 mb Vertical Vel: cm s -1 Temp: 20.8 C PW-WV: 56 mm A B B Temperature ( C) Dewpoint Temperature ( C) Horizontal Wind Vectors (m s -1 )
21 1140 UTC 03 October 2015 S3 Skew T A S3 Parcel Diagnostics Pressure: 874 mb LFC: --- Vertical Vel: 55.1 cm s -1 Temp: 19.2 C PW-WV: 57 mm A B B Temperature ( C) Dewpoint Temperature ( C) Horizontal Wind Vectors (m s -1 )
22 Skew Ts 1130 UTC 03 October UTC 03 October UTC 03 October 2015 S1 S2 S3 Temperature ( C) Dewpoint Temperature ( C) Horizontal Wind Vectors (m s -1 )
23 Conclusion Hurricane Joaquin No impact on precipitation amount Change in precipitation location Control d02 Convection Total Precipitation (mm) Frontal boundary lifted parcel to LFC Angle of moisture flow = precipitation orientation Earth Observation Laboratory (EOL) of NCAR
24 Further Research Additional Simulation Analyses Removal of terrain Removal of latent heating Removal of surface heating Removal of evaporation from precipitation Additional Trajectory Analyses Moisture Budgets Compare to past events (2010, 2014, 2016) Determine trend of such events
25 Citations European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, 2011: ECMWF's Operational Model Analysis, starting in Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO. [Available online at Accessed 22 June Fredrick, S., C. Davis, D. Gill, and S. Low-Nam, 2009: Bogussing of Tropical Cyclones in WRF Version , National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO. Tang, Q., L. Xie, G. M. Lackmann, and B. Liu, 2013: Modeling the Impacts of the Large- Scale Atmospheric Environment on Inland Flooding during the Landfall of Hurricane Floyd (1999). Adv. Meteor., 2013, 1-16.
26 Contact Chasity Henson Patrick Market Hurricane Joaquin near the Bahamas at 1545 UTC 30 September Image captured by NASA s Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team using the MODIS instrument aboard NASA s Terra satellite.
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