UNDERSTANDING STORM TIDES

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1 UNDERSTANDING STORM TIDES

2 Run from the water, hide from the wind..

3 CATEGORY CATEGORY CATEGORY CATEGORY CATEGORY WIND mph knots mph knots mph knots mph knots > 155 mph > 135 knots STORM SURGE 4-5 feet m 6-8 feet m 9-12 feet m feet m > 18 feet > 5.5 m U.S. National Weather Service, NOAA SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE

4 FIRST, SOME DEFINITIONS.. STORM SURGE: Change in water level due to the effects of the storm ASTRONOMIC TIDE: Everyday change in water level due to the gravitational interaction between the earth, moon and sun STORM TIDE: The peak water level that results from storm surge in combination with the astronomical tide and other forms of ongoing sea level change (decadal change, sea level rise).

5 HURRICANE ISABEL SEPTEMBER 18, 2003 V.S HURRICANE August 23, 1933 Storm of the Century

6

7 (FEET) 7.9 feet

8 7.9 feet (FEET) Storm Surge 4.8 feet Category 1

9 8.0 feet

10 8.0 feet Storm Surge 5.8 feet Category 2

11 0.93 feet

12 (feet) 2.28 feet +1.4

13 Who predicts tides and records water levels in the U.S.? Officially, it s NOAA/NOS National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Ocean Service

14

15 MEASURING WATER LEVELS AT A TIDE STATION Feet Hampton Roads (Sewells Pt) VA Station Datum (STND)

16 MEASURING WATER LEVELS AT A TIDE STATION Feet Hampton Roads (Sewells Pt) VA Where s the Tidal Datum? Station Datum (STND)

17 MEASURING WATER LEVELS AT A TIDE STATION Feet Hampton Roads (Sewells Pt) VA * MSL *National Tidal Datum Epoch Station Datum (STND)

18 MEASURING WATER LEVELS AT A TIDE STATION Feet Hampton Roads (Sewells Pt) VA MSL MSL Station Datum (STND)

19 MEASURING WATER LEVELS AT A TIDE STATION Feet Hampton Roads (Sewells Pt) VA MSL MSL MSL Station Datum (STND)

20 MEASURING WATER LEVELS AT A TIDE STATION Feet Hampton Roads (Sewells Pt) VA MSL MSL MSL MSL Station Datum (STND)

21 MEASURING WATER LEVELS AT A TIDE STATION Feet Hampton Roads (Sewells Pt) VA MSL Station Datum (STND)

22 MEASURING WATER LEVELS AT A TIDE STATION Feet Hampton Roads (Sewells Pt) VA MSL MLLW Station Datum (STND)

23 MEASURING WATER LEVELS AT A TIDE STATION Feet Hampton Roads (Sewells Pt) VA MHHW MSL MLLW Station Datum (STND)

24 So sea level is rising and NOAA is keeping track.. What do they do with these tidal datums? Answer: Vertical reference on Nautical Charts

25

26 4 feet below MLLW

27 MLLW

28 Besides the tidal datums, NOAA keeps track of another key sea level parameter: Monthly Mean Sea Level

29 Why keep track of Monthly Mean Sea Level? 1: Sea level trends (rise or fall) 2: Seasonal and decadal change 3: Base level for storm surge

30 Monthly Mean Sea Level, Hampton Roads (Sewells PT), VA Sea Level Trend: 1.4 ft/century

31 Monthly Mean Sea Level, Hampton Roads (Sewells PT), VA Sea Level Trend: 1.4 ft/century Sep03 Aug33

32 Monthly Mean Sea Level, Hampton Roads (Sewells PT), VA Sea Level Trend: 1.4 ft/century Aug33 Sep44 Aug55 Mar62 Oct54 Sep60 Sep99 Sep03

33 Monthly Mean Sea Level, Hampton Roads (Sewells PT), VA Sea Level Trend: 1.4 ft/century

34

35 Jan Sep

36 Monthly Mean Sea Level Sewells Point, VA Oct02 Sep03 Oct04 Oct05 Sep06 Sep08 Jun MSL Feb03 Jan04 Feb07 Dec08

37 HAMPTON ROADS (SEWELLS PT), VA MONTHLY DEVIATION FROM SEASONAL TIDE & SEA LEVEL TREND

38 HAMPTON ROADS (SEWELLS PT), VA MONTHLY DEVIATION FROM SEASONAL TIDE & SEA LEVEL TREND 19-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE

39 Decadal Change at Three NWLON Stations, U.S. East Coast

40 HAMPTON ROADS (SEWELLS PT), VA MONTHLY DEVIATION FROM SEASONAL TIDE & SEA LEVEL TREND 19-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE

41 72-73 HAMPTON ROADS (SEWELLS PT), VA El Nino MONTHLY DEVIATION FROM SEASONAL TIDE & SEA LEVEL TREND 19-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE

42 HAMPTON ROADS (SEWELLS PT), VA El Nino MONTHLY DEVIATION FROM SEASONAL TIDE & SEA LEVEL TREND 19-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE

43 HAMPTON ROADS (SEWELLS PT), VA El Nino MONTHLY DEVIATION FROM SEASONAL TIDE & SEA LEVEL TREND 19-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE

44 A Storm Tide is the sum of: The astronomic tide including seasonal cycle The sea level trend The decadal change in sea level Storm surge

45 In the meantime, how can I find a good local reference for storm tides in my part of the country? Short answer: Try Highest Astronomical Tide and look for a Salt Bush

46

47

48 Making the Case for a new Reference: EXTRATIDAL HIGH WATER (XHW) High Water Height Above the Tidal Datum of Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT) Measured Above MSL

49 Making the Case for EXTRATIDAL HIGH WATER (XHW) Tropical Depression ERNESTO.. September 1, 2006

50 1.98 feet ERNESTO HAT

51 Water level in feet above MLLW

52 2.59 feet ERNESTO HAT

53 3.10 feet ERNESTO HAT

54 Water Level (feet above MLLW) ERNESTO 2006

55 Making the Case for EXTRATIDAL HIGH WATER (XHW)

56 August feet HAT

57 ISABEL September feet HAT

58 KATRINA August feet HAT

59 Hurricane IKE XHW 7.05 feet

60

61 Chandeleur Islands

62 Photo courtesy of Dr. David Forrest, VIMS

63

64 Sea Dykes in the Netherlands

65 HURRICANE KATRINA AUGUST 29, 2005

66

67

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