The Storm Surge and Inundation Modeling for Nor easter Event in the Chesapeake Bay, and Super-Regional Testbed in the Gulf of Mexico

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1 The Storm Surge and Inundation Modeling for Nor easter Event in the Chesapeake Bay, and Super-Regional Testbed in the Gulf of Mexico Harry Wang, Jie Gao, Derek Loftis and Yi-cheng Teng Department of Physical Sciences, Virginia Institute of Marine Science VIMS Industrial monthly meeting February 18, 2011

2 Top High Water Events Sewells Point NOS CO-OPS Data Date Storm Type Above MLLW ( ) August 23, 1933 Hurricane (unnamed) 8.02 feet September 18, 2003 Hurricane Isabel 7.89 feet November 12, 2009 Nor easter 7.75 feet March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 7.22 feet September 18, 1936 Hurricane (unnamed) 6.72 feet November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving Nor easter 6.63 feet February 5, 1998 Twin Nor easter (#2) 6.58 feet October 7, 2006 Columbus Day Nor easter 6.52 feet April 27, 1978 Nor easter 6.41 feet April 11, 1956 Nor easter 6.32 feet September 16, 1933 Hurricane (unnamed) 6.12 feet January 28, 1998 Twin Nor easter (#1) 6.04 feet September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 5.97 feet

3 Outline The storm surge modeling for November 2009 Northeaster in the Chesapeake Bay The inundation simulation and comparison with the on-land gauge measurement The recent effort in the Super-regional testbed project for the entire Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coast

4 November Northeaster 2009 Synoptic Setup 12Z (7 am EST) Tue Nov 10th 12Z (7 am EST) Thu Nov 12th Weather across the mid- Atlantic is quiet as Tropical Storm Ida is making landfall along the Gulf coast. Low pressure redeveloped and intensified off the coastal Carolinas. Note the strong pressure gradient with a high pressure system north of the coastal low.

5 Local WRF Model 4 km Resolution Global Forecast System Gridpoints

6 Nova Scotia Large Domain Storm Washington DC, Metro. Surge Model Long Island Ocean City, MD B.C. from large domain Great Hampton Road Open Boundary condition Duck, NC High resolution nested inundation model Florida Keys

7 Northeaster November 13, 2009

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9 SLOSH Model Grid VIMS Model Grid

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11 Storm Surge Model Results - US East Coast

12 Storm Surge Model Results - lower Chesapeake Bay

13 (Con t)

14 Ensemble forecasts - (30 hour with 6 hour update at Bay Bridge tunnel )

15 Ensemble forecast (progressive diagram for different stations)

16 Uncertainty Analysis ( mouth of Chesapeake Bay)

17 Sewell s Point (James River)

18 The inundation simulation and comparison with on-land gauge measurement during 11/2009 northeaster

19 USGS Nor Ida Gages

20 Inundation Simulation Results Lower Chesapeake Bay

21 (Con t 1)

22 (Con t 2)

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24 New Development in Super-Regional Testbed in the Gulf of Mexico

25 SELFE model Setup SELFE* is a semi-implicit, Eulerian Lagrangian, finite element model that has been parallelized. (For the initial setup in SURA project, a global coordinate**, 2D version was used) Model domains Gulf of Mexico, a large domain with 2,008,824 nodes and 3,961,501 elements. The tidal simulation results from 22 stations in the Gulf of Mexico are produced and compared (recommended by Aaron). Tidal boundary conditions: M2, K1, O1, S2, N2, K2, Q1 Time step = 90 s, total run time = 28 days Two type of bottom drag coefficient were used (1) Manning roughness coefficient = (constant) (2) Manning roughness coefficient = (constant) * Zhang, Y.-L. and Baptista, A.M. (2008) "SELFE: A semi-implicit Eulerian-Lagrangian finite-element model for cross-scale ocean circulation", Ocean Modelling, 21(3-4), ** Comblen, R.S. Legrand, E Deleersnijder, V. Legat (2009): A finite element method for solving the shallow water equation on the sphere, Ocean Modelling. 28,p12-23

26 The model domain and Gulf of Mexico stations:

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36 Results: Using Manning Coefficient

37 Benchmark Information a. Running on a Linux cluster machine with infiniband b. Compiler : PGI MPI version: MPICH2 c. Benchmark (for large domain) Scalability 16 cpus: 3hrs for 1 day 32 cpus: 1.7hrs for 1 day 64 cpus: 1.0hrs for 1 day 112 cpus: 46 min. for 1 day 256 cpus: 20 min. for 1 day Wall Clock Tim e (m in/day) # of compute cores

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39 Acknowledgement: CIPS (Chesapeake Bay Inundation Prediction System) was funded by NOAA IOOS Program and the project ended in December Principal Investigator: Kevin Sellner, Executive Director, Chesapeake Research Elizabeth Smith, Res. Assist. Prof., Exec. Dir., CBOS, 768 W 52nd St., Crittenton Hall, Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, VA T: , F: E: exsmith@odu.edu Harry Wang, Assoc. Prof., Va. Inst. of Mar. Sci., College of William and Mary, Greate Road, Rt. 1208, Gloucester Point, VA T: F: E: wang@vims.edu William Boicourt, Prof., Univ. of Md. Environ. Sci. Ctr., Horn Point Lab., 2020 Horns Pt. Rd., Cambridge, MD T: F: E: boicourt@hpl.umces.edu Ming Li, Assoc. Prof., Univ. of Md. Environ. Sci Ctr., Horn Point Lab, 2020 Horns Pt. Rd., Cambridge, MD T: F: E: mingli@hpl.umces.edu Jay Titlow, Chief Meteorologist, WeatherFlow, Inc., 790 Poquoson Ave., Poquoson, VA T: F: E: jtitlow@weatherflow.com Barry Stamey, Dir., Strategic Collaboration, Noblis, Inc., 3150 Fairview Park Drive South, Falls Church, VA T: F: E: barry.stamey@noblis.org Dennis King, Res. Prof., Univ. of Md. Environ. Sci. Ctr., Chesapeake Bay Laboratory, 1 Williams Street, Solomons, MD. T: F: E: dking@cbl.umces.edu Michael Koterba, Chair CBOS, U S Geological Survey, Suite 107A, 410 Severn Ave. Annapolis, MD T: F: E: Michael.Koterba@noaa.gov Partners: Anthony Siebers, Meteorologist-In-Charge, National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA John Billet, Science Ops. Officer, National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA Doug Wilson, Mgr., Integrated Observation Program, NOAA Ches. Bay Office, Annapolis, MD Peter Ahnert, Hydrologist-in-Charge, Middle-Atlantic River Forecast Center, State College, PA

40 Recent meeting with VA Department of Emergency Management Michael M. Cline, State Coordinator of Emergency Management Brett A. Burdick, Deputy State Coordinator for Administration Stewart Baker, VA Hurricane program manager Interested in the product and potentially work with CIPS partner!!!