Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX. Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio

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1 Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio

2 Outline A Look Back At 2014 Spring 2015 So Far El Niño Update Climate Prediction Center Outlooks 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

3

4 Austin Mabry & Bergstrom Bergstrom went 41 days without rain (7/25-9/3) 7 th longest period since 1942 (record: 64 days in 1993) Camp Mabry was only climate site that had above normal rain due to heavy rain event night of 7/17-7/18 (over 5 ) Over half of our rainfall in 2014 at both Camp Mabry and Bergstrom occurred in five events lasting 3 days or less! Austin Mabry: (7/16-7/18) (9/17-9/19) (11/20-11/22) (5/12-5/14) (11/4-11/6) of (52.9%) Austin Bergstrom: (5/12-5/14) (11/20-11/22) (5/27-5/28) (11/4-11/6) (9/17-9/19) of (54.3%)

5 Location Average Temp Normals Difference Austin Bergstrom Austin Mabry San Antonio Del Rio Location Average Max Temp Normal Max Temp Difference Austin Bergstrom Austin Mabry San Antonio Del Rio Location Average Min Temp Normal Min Temp Difference Austin Bergstrom Austin Mabry San Antonio Del Rio

6 th Warmest 75 th Coldest th Warmest 6 th Coldest

7 2014 Drought Monitor

8 Flash Flooding

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12 2015 Climographs

13 2015 Precipitation So Far

14 Current Drought Monitor

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17 April 12 th April 19th

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21 Why may help be on the way? Warmer than normal sea surface temps (SSTs) in Pacific El Niño Conditions Latest Weekly SST Departures: 0.9 o C 1.3 o C 1.3 o C 0.8 o C La Niña Conditions

22 Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niñ0 3.4 region. 3 Month running-mean SST departure Definitions For El Niño: Positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC For La Niña: Negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC 0.9 o C

23 ONI Evolution Since 1950 El Niño Neutral La Niña

24 El Niño Conditions Present! Approx. a 70% Chance that El Nino Conditions will Continue through summer 2015, and a greater than 60% chance it will last through autumn. El Niño Conditions Normal ( Neutral ) Conditions

25 El Niño Winter Teleconnections El Niňo typically causes subtropical jet to be active over southern U.S. and polar jet to be displaced to the north Subtropical jet Teleconnections are statistical linkages between changes occurring in widely separated regions

26 El Niño Winter Teleconnections El Niňo typically causes South Central Texas to be wetter and cooler than normal more than half of the time! 10-50% wetter than normal Trend Holds ~50% of the time Subtropical jet 1-2 o C cooler than normal Trend holds ~75% of the time

27 El Niño Conditions Continue!

28 El Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook The majority of the models indicate Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will remain greater than or equal to +0.5C through the end of Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 April 2015).

29 El Niño Conditions Continue! The NCEP CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts El Niño through NDJ

30 6-10 Day Outlook

31 8-14 Day Outlook

32 May 2015

33 May / June / July Outlook

34 April Drought Outlook

35 April 16 th July 31 st Drought Outlook

36 2014 Hurricane Outlook AY Actual 8 6 2

37 Normal and Record Activity Named Hurricanes Major Average ( ) Record High 28 (2005) 15 (2005) 7 (2005) Record Low 4 (1983*) 2 (2013*) 0 (2013*) *Last Year this Occurred

38

39 Tropical Storm Risk December Forecast ACE Major Hurricanes Hurricanes 79 (± 58) 2 (± 2) 6 (±3) 13(±4) April Forecast Tropical Storms Two Professors in the Department of Science and Climate Physics at University College London, UK ACE Accumulated Cyclone Energy wind energy index. Reasons for Below Normal Season: Suppression of trade winds over the Caribbean and North Atlantic ENSO Neutral Conditions (not the current ENSO forecast) They note high uncertainty in their trade winds and SST forecasts

40 Colorado State University Major Hurricanes Hurricanes April Forecast Tropical Storms Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray One of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20 th Century Reasons For Forecast: Moderate Strength El Niῆo Negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Strong Atlantic Subtropical High & Strengthened Trade Winds

41 NAO Hurricane Teleconnections Iceland Azores NAO Positive Phase Subtropical high shifted to north and east (hurricanes recurve farther east) More East Coast landfalls (although most out to sea) NAO Negative Phase Subtropical high shifted to south and west (hurricanes blocked from recurving to the north) More Gulf Coast landfalls

42 El Niῆo Hurricane Teleconnections A Decreased Number of Storms in the Atlantic Basin Storms affected by atmospheric circulation, largely through the vertical wind shear profile. Increased vertical wind shear due to increases in westerly winds aloft.

43 El Niῆo Hurricane Teleconnections

44 ENSO Hurricane Influence El Niño vs La Niña

45 North Carolina State University Major Hurricanes Hurricanes April Forecast Named Storms Dr. Lian Xie, Professor of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Significantly less active than the overall averages from 1950 to present Evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin. Reminder that it only takes one landfalling storm to create loss of life and property see Hurricane Andrew (quiet 1992 Hurricane Season)

46 Spotter Phone: Website: weather.gov/austin or mobile.weather.gov Facebook: NWSSanAntonio

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