Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: NOVEMBER 16, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales

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1 Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: NOVEMBER 16, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales OCTOBER 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The October contiguous U.S. average temperature was 57.4 F, 3.3 F above the 20th century average. This was the fourth warmest October on record and warmest since Fourteen states from the Great Plains to West Coast, including Alaska, had an October temperature that was much above average, with numerous locations within those states being record warm. Washington had its warmest October on record with a temperature of 52.8 F, 5.6 F above average, besting the previous record of 52.3 F set in Near-average October temperatures were observed across the Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Northeast, with belowaverage temperatures in parts of New England. The October contiguous U.S. maximum (daytime) temperature was 69.3 F, 2.5 F above average, the 15th warmest on record. Above-average maximum temperatures were observed in the West, where seven states across the Rockies and Northwest and Alaska had maximum temperatures that were much above average. Below-average maximum temperatures were observed in the Southeast. The October contiguous U.S. minimum (nighttime) temperature was 45.5 F, 4.0 F above average. This was the second warmest October minimum temperature on record. Only October 1947 had a warmer minimum temperature, at 46.2 F.

2 Much of the country had warmer than average minimum temperatures, with the largest departures from average across the West. Eights states were record warm, while an additional nine states were much warmer than average. Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during October was 32.2 percent below average and the 27th lowest in the period of record. During October, there were 3,247 record warm daily high (1,055) and low (2,192) temperature records, which is more than three and a half times the 845 record cold daily high (668) and low (177) temperature record. The October precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 2.75 inches, 0.59 inch above average and the 20th wettest on record. Above-average precipitation was observed across the southern half of the contiguous U.S. from the Southwest, through the Southern Plains, and into the Southeast. Seven states had October precipitation totals that were much above average. South Carolina had at least* it s second wettest October with inches of precipitation, 7.37 inches above average. The state observed inches of precipitation in October Below-average October precipitation was recorded in parts of the Northwest, Ohio Valley, and Florida. According to the November 3rd U.S. Drought Monitor report, 26.2 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down about 5.2 percent compared to September 29th. Drought conditions dramatically improved across parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley where heavy precipitation flooded the region in late October. Drought also improved across the Southeast and in parts of the Northwest. Drought conditions worsened across parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. Precipitation was spotty across the West with long-term drought conditions continuing to plague the region.

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6 Climate Highlights Year to Date January October 2015 The year-to-date contiguous U.S. average temperature was 57.0 F, 2.0 F above average, the sixth warmest on record. This was also the warmest year-to-date since Above-average temperatures were observed in the West and Southeast. Overall, 16 states, including Alaska, were much warmer than average. Arizona, California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington were each record warm. Below-average temperatures were observed in the Midwest and Northeast. The January-October contiguous U.S. maximum (daytime) temperature was 69.0 F, 1.7 F above average, the sixth warmest on record. Record warm maximum temperatures were observed across the Northwest Montana, Oregon, and Washington were record warm. Nine additional states across the West, including Alaska, were much warmer than average. Florida was also much warmer than average. Below-average maximum temperatures were observed across the Ohio Valley. The year-to-date contiguous U.S. minimum (nighttime) temperature was 45.0 F, 2.2 F above the 20th century average, the third warmest on record. Thirteen states had a record warm year-to-date minimum temperature. Twelve of the record warm states were in the West, from the Rockies to West Coast, including Alaska. Florida also observed a record warm January-October minimum temperature. Below-average minimum temperatures were observed in the Northeast. Based on REDTI, the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during January-October was 15.2 percent above average and the 40th highest in the period of record. The year-to-date precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was inches, 1.63 inches above average, and the 22nd wettest on record. Above-average precipitation was observed across the central U.S., where Kentucky, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas were much wetter than average. No state was record wet for the year-to-date.

7 Below-average precipitation was observed along both coasts. California, Connecticut, and Oregon each had precipitation totals that were much below average. California had its fourth driest year-to-date, while Oregon had its third driest. The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI) for the year-to-date was 40 percent above average and the 13th highest value on record. On the national scale, extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperatures, one-day precipitation totals, and days with precipitation were much above average. The USCEI is an index that tracks extremes (falling in the upper or lower 10 percent of the record) in temperature, precipitation, land-falling tropical cyclones, and drought across the contiguous United States. Regionally, the CEI was record high in the West and Northwest. In the West, the components that examine extremes in warm daytime and nighttime temperatures, the spatial extent of drought, and days without precipitation were much above average. In the Northwest, extremes in warm daytime and nighttime temperatures, the spatial extent of drought, and one-day precipitation totals were above average. The Southwest had its sixth highest year-to-date CEI due to extremes in warm daytime and nighttime temperatures and days with precipitation. Significant Events In early October, a strong low pressure system moved into the Southeast as Hurricane Joaquin moved off the East Coast. The two systems interacted, streaming deep tropical moisture into the Carolinas over a five-day period. Historic rainfall totals of inches were widespread with localized totals greater than 25 inches around Charleston, South Carolina. The heavy rainfall caused significant flooding across the region, including coastal flooding that was exacerbated by strong onshore flow and astronomical high tides. The flooding resulted in over 400 roads, including Interstate Highways, being closed and at least 16 fatalities. In late October, several storm systems impacted the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley, including the remnants of Hurricane Patricia. Heavy rainfall caused significant flooding across the region. On October 30th, Austin, Texas's Bergstrom Airport was forced to close when 5.76 inches of rainfall was observed in one hour, adding to the calendar-day total of inches. This was the second wettest day on record for the city. Texas as a whole had its fifth wettest October with 5.84 inches of precipitation, 3.31 inches above the 20 th century average. Climate Highlights Soil Moisture Conditions

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14 Climate Highlights Severe Weather Analysis All Event Distribution October Tornado Event Distribution October

15 Wind Event Distribution October Hail Event Distribution - October

16 Long Range Analog Analysis Due to the overwhelming evidence for a strong and building ENSO, I am maintaining the analog mapping to the following ENSO years from NOW out through Spring 2016:

17 , 20% , 10% , 15% , 20% , 5% , 30% November 2015 December 2015

18 January 2016: February 2016: March 2016:

19 European Model Outputs: DEC, JAN, FEB JAN, FEB, MAR FEB, MAR, APR

20 MAR, APR, MAY

21 NOAA CFS V2 Model Outputs:

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23 NOAA Official Seasonal Forecasts Temperature and Precipitation:

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25 AccuWeather s Winter Forecast Monthly HDDs for WINTER (out of 66 past winters from 1950, GCS = Gas Consuming States): Forecast Made Oct. 18, 2015: o Winter Full USA: 238,555 HDDs; 60 th Coldest; o Winter GCS: 72,110 HDDs; 52 nd Coldest; Forecast Made Nov. 16, 2015: o Winter Full USA: 236,364 HDDs; 61 st Coldest; o Winter GCS: 70,426 HDDs; 55 th Coldest; Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Past 5-Winter Average: Past 10-Winter Average: 244,852 HDDs; 51 ST Coldest; 271,201 HDDs; 8 TH Coldest; 246,194 HDDs; 50 th Coldest; 217,975 HDDs; 66 th Coldest (1 st Warmest); 256,794 HDDs; 38 th Coldest; 247,134 HDDs; 48 th Coldest; 258,361 HDDs; 32 nd Coldest; 248,397 HDDs 248,706 HDDs COLDEST WINTER since : ; 283,480 HDDs WARMEST WINTER since : ; 217,975 HDDs

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