Sierra Weather and Climate Update

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1 Sierra Weather and Climate Update Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9

2 Percent of Average Precipitation Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015

3 Mean Temperature Departure from Normal Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015

4 Percent of Average Precipitation Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015

5 Mean Temperature Departure from Normal Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015

6 May 2015 Precipitation Percent of Normal 01 May 2015 Thru 31 May 2015

7

8

9 United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD

10 thru Aug United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD

11 Water Year Oct 2010 Thru 30 Sep 2011

12 Water Year Oct 2011 Thru 30 Sep 2012

13 Water Year Oct 2012 Thru 30 Sep 2013

14 Water Year Oct 2013 Thru 30 Sep 2014

15 Water Year to date 01 Oct 2014 Thru 30 Sep 2015

16 Water Year Precipitation Percent Temperature Departure (F)

17 Water Year Precipitation Rank Oct 2014 Thru Sep 2015 Reference Period 1896 Thru 2014 Lowest 10 % Record Driest

18 Oct-Sep Temperature Rank Oct 2014 Thru Sep 2015 Reference Period Lowest 10 % Record Driest

19 Western US Temperature Percentiles Oct 2014 thru Mar 2015 Reference Period 120 Years WestWide Drought Tracker Updated Monthly WRCC

20 8-Station Index Precipitation Wettest ( ) Two driest years, ( , ) CA - DWR

21 5-Station Index Precipitation Wettest ( ) Two driest years, ( , ) CA - DWR

22 Northern Sierra Winter Season Snow Water Content wettest Average Central Sierra driest Southern Sierra Thru 01 Jun 2015 Cal DWR

23 15-Year Mean Sierra Snow Water Equivalent 2015 March 29 Noah Molotch - NASA/JPL

24 Snotel Basin-Average Water Year Precipitation 2014 Oct 1 thru 2015 Apr 12

25 Snotel Basin-Averaged Snow Water Equivalent 2015 April 12

26 The Great Snow Drought of Precipitation Snowpack

27 Elevation of Lake Tahoe at Tahoe City 2011 Oct 01-1 Jun 2015 Natural Rim

28 Number of U.S. Wildland Fires through October 2, 2015 (numbers after 1990 adjusted by NIFC in 2007) Average = thru Oct 2. Number of Fires Year Western Regional Climate Center Source: National Interagency Fire Center

29 Acres burned U.S. Fires through October 2, 2015 Values after 1990 adjusted by NIFC in Ave from = 6.25 M acres. Number of acres Year Western Regional Climate Center Source: National Interagency Fire Center

30 Several types of summaries And presentations available.

31 Sierra Nevada Precipitation Snow Season Oct-Mar thru California Climate Tracker

32 Sierra Nevada Precipitation Water Year Oct-Sep thru California Climate Tracker

33 Water Year Oct-Sep Temperature Departure Sierra Nevada thru

34 Tmax Tmin Water Year Oct-Sep Temperature Departure Sierra Nevada 1895/96 thru 2014/15

35 Winter Temp Spring Temp Summer Temp Sierra Nevada thru Mar 2014 Fall Temp

36 Tmax Tmin Water Year Dec-Jan-Feb Temperature Departure Sierra Nevada 1895/96 thru 2014/15

37 Tmax Tmin Water Year Jun-Jul-Aug Temperature Departure Sierra Nevada 1895 thru 2015

38 California Climate Tracker Summary Graph 12 Months Ending Sep 2015 Temperature Precipitation

39 Select: YOSE-SEKI area, 12 months ending in Dec, Temperature 0 C, 9-year running mean.

40 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Annual through 2013.

41 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Annual through 2014.

42 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Winter thru

43 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Spring thru 2015.

44 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Summer thru 2015.

45 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Autumn thru

46 Sierra Nevada Freezing Level vs Climatology Nov 2014 thru 10 Oct 2015

47 Elevation of Freezing Level over YOSE-SEKI. Monthly. Jan 1948 thru 3 Oct January February March April May June July August September October (3 rd ) November December

48 Percent of Reanalysis precipitation with below-freezing temperature at 1800 m / 5900 ft. Yosemite - Sequoia - Kings Canyon area. Water Years 1948/ /15. snow rain

49 Percent of Reanalysis precipitation with below-freezing temperature at 1800 m / 5900 ft. Yosemite - Sequoia - Kings Canyon area. Winter (DJF) 1948/ /15. snow rain

50 Percent of Reanalysis precipitation with below-freezing temperature at 1800 m / 5900 ft. Yosemite - Sequoia - Kings Canyon area. Spring (MAM) snow rain

51 Through September 2015 El Nino La Nina NOAA ESRL ( CDC ), Wolter and Timlin

52 Ocean Departures from Average Temperature ( C ) 2015 Sep 27 - Oct 03

53 Ocean Surface Temperature ( C ) 2015 Sep 27 - Oct 03

54 Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures Updated through 2015 Sep 27 - Oct 03

55 Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. Washington Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. ENSO Arizona Central Sierra

56

57

58

59

60

61 So far, so good...

62 So, what about the future???

63 Dec-Jan-Feb Temperature Temperature & Precipitation Official Outlooks Three Month Winter Dec-Jan-Feb Precipitation Orange / Red - Higher likelihood of warmer / drier than usual Green / Blue - Higher likelihood of cooler / wetter than usual NOAA Climate Prediction Center

64 Seven experiments in near-term climate forecasting Dec-Feb Precipitation. NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble). Dynamical Models CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2 CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1 CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2 GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric Research NASA: US National Aeronautics and Space Administration NMME: National Multi-Model Ensemble IMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble 2015 Sep 27

65 Seven experiments in near-term climate forecasting Dec-Feb Temperature. NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble). Dynamical Models CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2 CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1 CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2 GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric Research NASA: US National Aeronautics and Space Administration NMME: National Multi-Model Ensemble IMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble 2015 Sep 27

66 Thank You!

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