Winter Climate Forecast

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1 Winter Climate Forecast 25 th Winter Weather Meeting, OMSI and Oregon AMS, Portland Kyle Dittmer Hydrologist-Meteorologist Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Portland, Oregon Professor of Earth Science PCC Southeast Campus, Portland, Oregon October 28th, 2017

2 Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission - CRITFC CRITFC website,

3 Portland Climate Forecast Performance Month: Temperature (mean monthly): Avg. (n=20) Observed Precipitation (% normal): Avg. (n=20) Observed November Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) Above Normal ( %) 118% 123% December Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) Near Normal (90-110%) 93% 83% January Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) Near Normal (90-110%) 102% 89% February Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) Near Normal (90-110%) 98% 260% March Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) Above Normal ( %) 117% 203% but what about Snow events?! Forecasted four events two moderate, two minor (6-inch seasonal total), December to February. Observed five snow events: Dec. 8 (minor), 14 (moderate); Jan. 7 (minor), (major); and March 6 (minor) a 11-inch seasonal total. average: average: 106% 152%

4 Government Camp Climate Forecast Performance Month: Temperature: Observed Precipitation: Observed Snow fall Observed Forecast Observed November % 72% % 74% December % 142% % 168% January % 59% % 114% February % 153% % 150% March % 189% % 111% April % 112% % 67% May % 119% % 19% average: % 121% % 100% Water Supply Forecast (MEI method): Columbia R. at The Dalles, Jan.-July: 111 MAF (issued Oct. 2016), 109%. Observed: 137 MAF. Error ±19%. 101 MAF (issued April 2017), 100%. Observed: 137 MAF. Error ±26%.

5 Introduction Methods CRITFC forecast uses a holistic, integrated big picture view. Big-picture: Solar Forcing (e.g., sunspot cycles) does influence our global weather patterns. In memoriam: Dr. Landscheidt, of Germany ( ). Track ENSO with the Multi-variable ENSO Index: MEI. NOAA s Sea-Surface Temperature Departure Forecasts. Hydro-Climate approach: Use a regression: Multi-variable ENSO Index ( ) vs. historic runoff for the Columbia River at The Dalles, then compute a 2018 Water Supply Forecast. Select the right mixture of 20 past Water Years (next slide). Pattern recognition is key: both La Niña and ENSO-Neutral years.

6 Introduction Methods Ensemble forecasting 20 past water years: WY2018 TDA runoff PDO-warm PDO-cold El Nino E-neutral La Nina x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X x X (MAF) Average: ENSO-neutral/LaNina border: 12 STDEV: 13.8 Solar minimums: 5

7 SUNSPOT COUNTS LA NIÑA

8 NOAA SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES - LA NIÑA

9 MEI SIGNAL SUGGESTS LA NIÑA MEI tracks the Sea-Level Pressure, surface winds (2D), Sea-surface Temperature, Air Temperature, and fraction of Cloud cover.

10 PDO SIGNAL...THE COLD PHASE CONTINUES

11 ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECAST Blue line = long-term average (WY )

12 Summary: the CR Gorge Hood River Month: Temperature (mean monthly): Avg. (n=20) Precipitation (% normal): Avg. (n=20) November Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) 0.1 Above Normal ( %) 110% December Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) -1.4 Above Normal ( %) 111% January Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) 1.3 Near Normal (90-110%) 99% February Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) -1.6 Near Normal (90-110%) 108% March Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) -0.3 Above Normal ( %) 111% Expect many snow events or 135% of normal (NOV-FEB); seasonal total 35-inches. NOV 2.5-inch (up to 8), DEC 11-inch (up to 22), JAN 11-inch (up to 24), FEB 8-inch (up to 17), MAR 2-inch

13 Summary: the mountains Government Camp Month: Temperature (mean monthly): Avg. (n=20) Precipitation (% normal): Avg. (n=20) Snow fall % Normal November Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) -0.2 Above Normal ( %) 119% 31 87% December Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) -0.9 Near Normal (90-110%) 105% % January Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) 0.8 Near Normal (90-110%) 109% % February Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) -2.3 Above Normal ( %) 113% % March Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) -0.2 Above Normal ( %) 115% % April Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) -0.5 Near Normal (90-110%) 99% % May Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) -0.7 Near Normal (90-110%) 107% 7 131% Expect a seasonal total of: 266-inches or 119% of normal (NOV-MAY).

14 Summary: the Portland Forecast Month: Temperature (mean monthly): Avg. (n=20) Precipitation (% normal): Avg. (n=20) November Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) 0.4 Above Normal ( %) 114% December Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) -0.7 Near Normal (90-110%) 99% January Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) 1 Near Normal (90-110%) 102% February Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) -1.4 Near Normal (90-110%) 100% March Near Normal (-1.8 to degf) 0.1 Above Normal ( %) 117% EXPECT HIGH VARIABILITY INTENSE RAIN EVENTS, FLOODS, FOG, WIND STORMS, GORGE WIND, FREEZING RAIN, etc. WATER SUPPLY FORECAST: 112 MAF (±14 MAF) or 109%, COLUMBIA RIVER AT THE DALLES, JANUARY - JULY. but what about Snow events?! Expect FIVE events: 3 moderate (3-4 inch), 2 minor (1-inch). DEC 1-inch (up to 2.5), JAN 3.5-inch (up to 8.5), FEB 1.5-inch (up to 4), and MAR 0.5-inch (up to 1) (80% - 95% likely)

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