A Preliminary Severe Winter Storms Climatology for Missouri from

Transcription

1 A Preliminary Severe Winter Storms Climatology for Missouri from K.L. Crandall and P.S Market University of Missouri Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences

2 Introduction The NWS issues warnings for heavy snow, freezing rain, high winds, flash flooding, river flooding, thunderstorms, tornadoes, tropical storms, and hurricanes. In a broad sense, these are all defined as severe weather as any of them can and do pose a threat to life and property. - Storm Prediction Center

3 Introduction To date there has never been an all-inclusive climatology with economic impacts done on severe winter storms for the entire state of Missouri Photo: Springfield NWS

4 Methodology Data Resources National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) Missouri Climate Center (MCC) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Central Library

5 Methodology The Ice Storm Database from the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Local National Weather Service (NWS) offices Local newspapers

6 Methodology Initial identification of events NCDC Storm Data Publications CRRELL Ice Storm Database Daily frozen precipitation maps from MRCC Aid with indentifying precipitation type Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) forms

7 Methodology Identifying cyclone type or particular weather feature Daily weather maps Determining economic loss for each event NCDC Storm Event Database and Storm Data Publications CRREL Ice Storm Database MCC Local newspapers

8 Methodology Classification of events 3 categories have been created to sort the severe winter storms Significant snow event: 6 inches or greater snow fall Significant glaze event: At least ¼ inch of ice accumulation Significant mixed event: Meets both of the above criteria

9 Example Event Taken from the winter season Caused between $500,000 and $5 million in property damages First event in the NCDC Storm Event Database

10 16-17 January 1994

11 Daily Weather Maps: 16 January 1994

12 Daily Weather Maps: 17 January 1994

13 Cyclone Type By the track of this cyclone this severe winter event is associated with an Alberta Low Why is cyclone type important?

14 January 1994 COOP Form for Bernie, MO in Stoddard County Bernie, MO (Google Maps)

15 Event Details and Economic Impacts NCDC Storm Data Publications

16 Event Details and Economic Impacts Event Record Details Event: Winter Storm Begin Date: 16 Jan 1994, 1000 CST Begin Location: Southeast Missouri End Date: 17 Jan 1994, 0600CST CST End Location: Not Known Magnitude: 0 Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Property $ 5.0M Damage: Crop Damage: $ 0.0 State: Missouri Map of Counties Bollinger, Butler, Cape Zones Girardeau, Carter, affected: Dunklin, Howell, Madison, Mississippi, New Madrid, Oregon, Pemiscot, Reynolds, Ripley, Scott, Shannon, Stoddard, Wayne Description: A layer of ice up to two inches thick formed over sections of southeast Missouri, followed by 6 to 10 inches of snow. Numerous trees and power lines fell down due to ice accumulation. Structural damage to older barns and collapsed roofs were also reported due to the heavy weight of the snow and ice. A large number of car accidents were also reported on area highways. Some areas were without power in excess of 24 hours. NCDC Storm Event Database

17 16-17 January 1994 Event Conclusions Significant mixed precipitation event Considerable economic loss Classified as an Alberta Low

18 Results 191 severe winter storms were originally identified 164 meet the desired criteria Photo: John Springli Photo: Springfield NWS

19 Results Number of Severe Winter Storms Per Month From that Impacted the State of Missouri Number of Storms Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 5 0 Winter Season

20 Results Dominant Storm Type for the Month of October Number of Storms Snow Glaze Mixed Precipitation 10 0 October

21 Results Dominant Storm Type for the Month of November Number of Storms Snow Glaze Mixed Precipitation 10 0 November

22 Results Dominant Storm Type for the Month of December Number of Storms Snow Glaze Mixed Precipitation 10 0 December

23 Results Dominant Storm Type for the Month of January Number of Storms Snow Glaze Mixed Precipitation 10 0 January

24 Results Dominant Storm Type for the Month of February Number of Storms Snow Glaze Mixed Precipitation 10 0 February

25 Results Dominant Storm Type for the Month of March Number of Storms Snow Glaze Mixed Precipitation 10 0 March

26 Results Dominant Storm Type for the Month of April Number of Storms Snow Glaze Mixed Precipitation 10 0 April

27 Results The greatest number of severe winter storms occurred in January with 45 followed by December with 44 The least number of severe winter storms occurred in May with 0 storms followed by October with 1 storm

28 Results Snow only storms were the most common with 103 storms Freezing rain only storms and mixed precipitation storms occurred much less frequently with 34 and 27 storms respectively

29 Results NCDC Storm Data Publications estimates that severe winter storms cost the state of Missouri between $683 million and $829 million over the last 50 years (the data has not yet been adjusted to 2010 dollars)

30 Results The most costly severe winter storm occurred between January 2007 Property and crop damages around $355 million The primary precipitation type associated with the event was freezing rain

31 Future Work Cyclone type analysis More in-depth economic analysis Investigation of the role of various teleconnections in severe winter storms in Missouri

32 Conclusion This is just a brief glimpse of the severe winter storms climatology for Missouri from that is being created. When this climatology is completed it will help with forecasting and preparing for severe winter storms in Missouri.

33 References Changnon, S. A. 1969: Climatology of Severe Winter Storms in Illinois. Illinois State Water Survey Bulletin 53. Storm Prediction Center, cited 2012: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ). [Available online at

34 Thank you for listening and I will take any questions or comments kcmn5@mail.missouri.edu