Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: SEPTEMBER 19, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP,

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1 Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: SEPTEMBER 19, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, SEPTEMBER 2016 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The contiguous U.S. average September temperature was 67.2 F, 2.4 F above the 20th century average, making it the ninth warmest September in the 122-year period of record. Above-average temperatures were observed for most locations east of the Rockies, with record warmth across parts of the Southeast, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic. Twenty-eight states across the Midwest, Southeast and Northeast were much warmer than average. Alaska was also warmer than average. Ohio was record warm, with a monthly temperature 4.9 F above average. Near-to-below-average temperatures were observed from the Rockies to the West Coast. The contiguous U.S. average maximum (daytime) temperature during September was 79.5 F, 1.7 F above the 20th century average, the 23rd warmest on record. Above-average maximum temperatures were observed for most locations east of the Rockies with much-above-average maximum temperatures in the Southeast and Northeast. Near-average maximum temperatures were observed for much of the West and Great Plains with below-average maximum temperatures in the Southwest and Northern Rockies. The contiguous U.S. average minimum (nighttime) temperature during September was 54.9 F, 3.0 F above the 20th century average, the fourth warmest on record. Above-average minimum temperatures were observed for most locations from the Rockies to East Coast. Record warm minimum temperatures were observed in parts of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. The West Coast and parts of the Southwest had near-average minimum temperatures.

2 During September there were 3,715 record warm daily high (1,100) and low (2,615) temperature records, which is more than five times the 669 record cold daily high (422) and low (247) temperature records. Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during September was 103 percent above average and the seventh highest value on record, driven in large part to warm temperatures across the densely populated Northeast as well as the Midwest and Southeast. The September precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 2.70 inches, 0.21 inch above the 20th century average, and ranked near the median value in the 122-year period of record. Above-average precipitation was observed across the interior West, Northern Plains and Rockies, Upper Midwest and parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Delaware, Iowa, Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina, Utah and Wisconsin were much wetter than average. The remnants from both Hurricane Hermine and Tropical Storm Julia brought heavy rain to parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coastal regions. Hurricane Hermine formed in the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall along the Florida Panhandle on September 2 as a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph. Hermine was the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Wilma in Hermine quickly weakened after making landfall, but its remnant low pressure system moved across the Southeast, bringing flooding rains to Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. At least five fatalities were attributed to Hermine. The U.S. CRN site in Blackville, South Carolina observed its wettest day in its 14-year history when the remnants of Hermine pass on September 2nd with 7.86 inches, with 7.35 inches of the rain falling in 12 hours. These totals correspond to once in one hundred year events at the 12- and 24-hour time intervals. In late September, extremely heavy rainfall impacted central and northeastern Iowa causing record and near-record river levels across the state. Five-day precipitation totals exceeded 10 inches for some locations. The Cedar River in Cedar Rapids, Iowa crested at its second highest level, shy of the 2008 record, with water inundating large parts of the city. Heavy precipitation fell across Hawaii during September due to remnants of tropical systems and upper-level low pressure systems. Honolulu observed its second wettest September in a 77-year period of record with 2.92 inches of rain, 417 percent of normal. On Maui, the heavy rains caused flooding and mudslides on the windward side of the island with some locations observing more than 5 inches of rain on the 12th and 13th. Kahului recorded 1.24 inches of rain, 326 percent of normal, and the sixth wettest September since records began there in Below-average precipitation was observed across parts of the West Coast, Central Rockies, Southeast and Northeast. Maine and Vermont each had monthly precipitation totals that were much below average. The warm and dry conditions in the Northeast contributed to expanding and intensifying drought conditions. Some parts of New England are experiencing one of their worst droughts in over 50 years. According to the October 4 U.S. Drought Monitor report, 19.4 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down about slightly compared to the end of August. Drought conditions worsened and expanded across parts of the Southeast, Northeast and Great Basin. Drought reduction was observed across parts of the Southwest, Midwest and Great Plains. Climate Highlights Year to Date (JAN SEP) The year-to-date (January-September) contiguous U.S. average temperature was 57.8 F, 2.8 F above average, making it the second warmest on record, behind only 2012.All 48 states across the contiguous U.S. observed much-aboveaverage temperatures for the first nine months of the year. No state in the contiguous U.S. had a record warm year to date. The Alaska year-to-date temperature was 37.0 F, 6.9 F above average, surpassing the previous record warm January- September of 1926 by 2.8 F. Record and near-record warmth engulfed Alaska for much of 2016.

3 The contiguous U.S. average maximum (daytime) temperature during January-September was 69.8 F, 2.5 F above the 20th century average, the fifth warmest on record. Every state across the Lower 48 had an above-average maximum temperature for the year to date with much-above average maximum temperatures across the West, Central and Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast. The contiguous U.S. average minimum (nighttime) temperature during January-September was 45.8 F, 3.0 F above the 20th century average, the second warmest on record. Only in 2012 was the January-September minimum temperature was warmer at 46.1 F. Every state across the Lower 48 had a much-above-average minimum temperature with record warm minimum temperatures observed across parts of the Northern Rockies and Plains, Central Plains, and Southeast. Based on REDTI, the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during January-September was 44 percent below average and the 16th lowest value on record. The year-to-date (January-September) contiguous U.S. precipitation total was inches, 1.57 inch above average, and the 19th wettest. Above-average precipitation was observed across parts of the Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Texas and Wisconsin were much wetter than average. Below-average precipitation fell across parts of the Southwest, Southeast, and Northeast where Connecticut and Massachusetts were much drier than average. No state was record wet or record dry for the year-to-date. The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI) for the year to date was 65 percent above average and the fifth highest value on record. On the national scale, extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperatures, the spatial extent of wetness and one-day precipitation totals were above average. The USCEI is an index that tracks extremes (falling in the upper or lower 10 percent of the record) in land-falling tropical cyclones, temperature, precipitation and drought across the contiguous U.S. Regionally, extremes were much above average in the Northeast, Southeast, Ohio Valley, South, and the Northern Rockies and Plains. In the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Northern Rockies and Plains, extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperatures were much above average. In the Southeast extremes in warm minimum temperatures were elevated, while in the South extremes in warm minimum temperatures, spatial extent of wetness, and one-day precipitation totals were much above average. In the Ohio Valley, the year to date saw the second highest CEI on record due to extremes in warm minimum temperatures, the spatial extent of wetness, one-day precipitation totals, and the number of days with precipitation.

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10 Climate Highlights Soil Moisture Conditions

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17 Climate Highlights Severe Weather Analysis All Event Distribution September Tornado Event Distribution September

18 Wind Event Distribution September Hail Event Distribution September

19 Long Range Analog Analysis

20 Trend Adjustments Made by S.A. Root --- OCT 25, 2016 The current period reviewed was SEP 15 th OCT 23 rd resulting in these two observations: Looking back at the past 30, 60, 90 and 120-days, we have:

21 REVIEW of S ROOT s SEP 17 th TEMP ANALOG SELECTION: 1960, 1962, 1981, 2003, and 2006:

22 1981 and 2006 were completely off-trend; 1960, 1962 and 2003 were better but had the heat out west versus the eastern USA where it needed to be REVIEW of SOURCE-2 (PP) TEMP ANALOGS: 1983, 1995, 2005, 2011 and 2013: 2005 was extremely good; this year will be retained.

23 S ROOT OCT 23 rd NEW ANALOGS for Consideration for Inputs to Analog Trend Mapping: And here s a statistical correlation, using daily average temperature for regional hub cities, SEP 15 OCT 231, 2016 versus all years, same period:

24 So, from all sources these inputs were preselected from the S Root deck: 1962 From the PP: 2005 (this analog has strong appeal) From new years to consider: 1953, 1954, 1956, 1994, 1997, 1998 Here is the Balance of OCT 2016 (part obs., balance predicted using UFDB) for both TEMP and PRECIP: So, applying various weights, mixing analog years, etc., I reach the following best correlation (albeit not as close as I d like to see):

25 Next, looking ahead 1-month (which is using 100% UFDB):

26 So, after some back-and-forth, here is the final selection: 1954, 1962 X 2, 1997, 1998 X 2, 2005 X 2: The OCT 2016 calibration is above; the graphics below show what my analog selection renders for NOV 2016 MAR 2017 (Note: The balance of OCT and all of NOV is using 100% UFDB model, no analog until 12/10/2016).

27 November 2016

28 December 2016

29 January 2017

30 February 2017

31 March 2017

32 EUROPEAN MODEL OUTPUTS: NOV, DEC, JAN 17 DEC, JAN, FEB 17 JAN, FEB, MAR 17

33 FEB, MAR, APR 17

34 NOAA CFS V2 MODEL OUTPUTS - TEMPERATURE and PRECIPITATION:

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36 NOAA OFFICIAL SEASONAL FORECASTS - TEMPERATURE and PRECIPITATION:

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38 AccuWeather s Winter Forecast Monthly HDDs for WINTER (out of 66 past winters from 1950, GCS = Gas Consuming States): Forecast Made: Oct. 26, 2016: o Winter Full USA: 242,086 HDDs; 56 th Coldest; o Winter GCS: 71,098 HDDs; 52 nd Coldest; Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Past 5-Winter Average: Past 10-Winter Average: 219,156 HDDs; 66 th Coldest; 244,883 HDDs; 51 ST Coldest; 271,148 HDDs; 8 TH Coldest; 246,808 HDDs; 50 th Coldest; 217,673 HDDs; 67 th Coldest (1 st Warmest); 257,068 HDDs; 38 th Coldest; 247,077 HDDs; 48 th Coldest; 257,958 HDDs; 32 nd Coldest; 240,859 HDDs 247,312 HDDs COLDEST WINTER since : ; 283,488 HDDs WARMEST WINTER since : ; 218,673 HDDs

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