Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 25, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales

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1 Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 25, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales MARCH 2016 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The March temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 47.5 F, or 6.0 F above the 20th century average. This was the fourth warmest March in the 122-year period of record for the Lower 48 and warmest since The contiguous U.S. average maximum (daytime) temperature during March was 59.4 F, 6.4 F above the 20th century average, the fourth warmest on record. The average minimum temperature was 35.5 F, 5.5 F above average, also the fourth warmest on record. Every state in the contiguous U.S. had an above-average March temperature. Temperatures were much warmer than average across parts of the Rocky Mountains, Central and Northern Plains, Midwest, and along the East Coast. No state had a record warm March. The Alaska March temperature was the sixth warmest in the 92-year period of record at 18.6 F, 7.8 F above average. Record warmth was observed across southern parts of the state. The end of March was particularly warm for Alaska with several locations setting new March daily temperature records. On March 31, the temperature at Klawock in southeastern Alaska reached 71.0 F, the warmest March temperature ever observed in the state. During March there were 5,956 record warm daily high (2,484) and low (3,472) temperature records, which is more than 22 times the 266 record cold daily high (154) and low (112) temperature records.

2 Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during March was 71.3 percent below average and the fifth lowest value on record. The warm temperatures during the first part of March across the densely populated Midwest and Northeast contributed to the low REDTI value. The March precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 2.89 inches, 0.38 inch above the 20th century average, and the 26th wettest on record. Above-average precipitation was observed along the West Coast, Midwest, Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley. Seven states were much wetter than average. Record-breaking rain events at both the beginning and end of March caused significant flooding across parts of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Memphis, Tennessee, and Little Rock, Arkansas, each had their wettest March on record with inches and inches of rain, respectively. Below-average precipitation was observed across parts of the Southwest and Central Plains and along parts of the East Coast, where eight states were much drier than average. New Mexico had its driest March on record with 0.06 inch of precipitation, only 8 percent of average. According to an analysis of NOAA data by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the March contiguous U.S. snow cover extent was 382,000 square miles, 359,000 square miles below the average and the second smallest in the 50-year period of record. The smallest March snow cover extent occurred in 1968 at 343,000 square miles. According to the March 29 U.S. Drought Monitor report, 15.1 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, up about 0.8 percent compared to the beginning of March. Drought conditions improved across parts of the Northwest and Northern California; however, drought conditions continued to impact over 90 percent of California. Drought conditions worsened in the Southwest and parts of the Southern and Central Plains. Short-term drought created ideal wildfire conditions along the Oklahoma and Kansas border, where a grassland fire charred more than 400,000 acres, the largest wildfire on record in Kansas. Climate Highlights January - March The January-March temperature was 39.7 F, 4.6 F above the 20th century average. This ranked as the fourth warmest year-to-date on record and warmest since The contiguous U.S. average maximum (daytime) temperature during January-March was 50.7 F, 4.6 F above the 20th century average, the third warmest on record. The average minimum temperature was 28.7 F, 4.5 F above average, and the second warmest on record. Above-average temperatures spanned the nation for the first three months of Thirty-two states across the West, Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast were much warmer than average. Florida had a near-average January-March temperature. Alaska was record warm for the year-to-date with a statewide temperature of 17.8 F, 11.9 F above average. This bested the previous record of 17.0 F in Record warmth was observed across large areas of the state with several locations being record warm including: Barrow, Bethel, Homer, Juneau and King Salmon. Based on REDTI, the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during January-March was 34.1 percent below average and the fourth lowest value on record. The January-March precipitation total was 6.92 inches, 0.04 inch below average, and ranked near the median value in the 122-year period of record. Above-average precipitation was observed for parts of the Northwest, Northern Rockies, Midwest and Southeast. Michigan and Wisconsin had a much wetter than average year-to-date. Below-average precipitation was observed across parts of the Southwest, Northern Rockies and Central Plains and along parts of the East Coast. New Mexico had its 11th driest year-to-date.

3 The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI) for the year-to-date was 45 percent above average and the 13th highest value on record. On the national scale, extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperatures and the spatial extent of wetness were much above average. The USCEI is an index that tracks extremes (falling in the upper or lower 10 percent of the record) in temperature, precipitation and drought across the contiguous U.S. Regionally, the year-to-date CEI ranked among the ten highest in the Upper Midwest due to extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperatures, the spatial extent of wetness, and one-day precipitation totals and in the Northern Plains and Rockies due to extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperatures.

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8 Climate Highlights Soil Moisture Conditions

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13 Climate Highlights Severe Weather Analysis All Event Distribution March Tornado Event Distribution March

14 Wind Event Distribution March Hail Event Distribution March Long Range Analog Analysis In light of the overwhelming evidence of the existing strong ENSO I have maintained the use of strong analog support using El Nino analog support and have applied the following adjustments:

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17 So, applying: 1981 at 5% 2000 at 25% 2007 at 30% 2012 at 40% using these calibrations, I obtain mapping, which were installed: March Calibrations TEMP and PRECIP

18 April 2016 Outlook Using Above Weights May 2016 Outlook Using Above Weights

19 June 2016 Outlook Using Above Weights July 2016 Outlook Using Above Weights

20 August 2016 Outlook Using Above Weights European Model Outputs: MAY, JUN, JUL

21 JUN, JUL, AUG JUL, AUG, SEP AUG, SEP, OCT

22 NOAA CFS V2 Model Outputs:

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24 NOAA Official Seasonal Forecasts Temperature and Precipitation:

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26 AccuWeather s Winter Forecast Monthly HDDs for WINTER (out of 66 past winters from 1950, GCS = Gas Consuming States): Forecast Made Oct. 18, 2015: o Winter Full USA: 238,555 HDDs; 60 th Coldest; o Winter GCS: 72,110 HDDs; 52 nd Coldest; Forecast Made Nov. 16, 2015: o Winter Full USA: 236,364 HDDs; 61 st Coldest; o Winter GCS: 70,426 HDDs; 55 th Coldest; Forecast Made Dec. 18, 2015: o Winter Full USA: 231,909 HDDs; 64 th Coldest; o Winter GCS: 66,135 HDDs; 64 th Coldest; Forecast Made Jan. 17, 2016: o Winter Full USA: 232,722 HDDs; 63 rd Coldest; o Winter GCS: 66,310 HDDs; 63 rd Coldest; Forecast Made Feb. 17, 2016: o Winter Full USA: 228,971 HDDs; 64 th Coldest; o Winter GCS: 66,610 HDDs; 63 rd Coldest; Final: April 15, 2016: o Winter Full USA: 219,393 HDDs; 65 th Coldest; o Winter GCS: 63,050 HDDs; 65 th Coldest; Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Winter : Past 5-Winter Average: Past 10-Winter Average: 244,852 HDDs; 51 ST Coldest; 271,201 HDDs; 8 TH Coldest; 246,194 HDDs; 50 th Coldest; 217,975 HDDs; 66 th Coldest (1 st Warmest); 256,794 HDDs; 38 th Coldest; 247,134 HDDs; 48 th Coldest; 258,361 HDDs; 32 nd Coldest; 248,397 HDDs 248,706 HDDs COLDEST WINTER since : ; 283,480 HDDs WARMEST WINTER since : ; 217,975 HDDs

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