DEVELOPMENT OF AN INUNDATION FORECAST SYSTEM FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
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1 DEVELOPMENT OF AN INUNDATION FORECAST SYSTEM FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS C. Chen and R. C. Beardsley MITSG Sea Grant College Program Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, Massachusetts NOAA Grant No. NA10OAR Project No R/RC-127 Presented at Oceans Signal Climate Change - A Stakeholder Science Forum, MIT Sea Grant College Program, May 29, 2013.
2 Development of An Inundation Forecast System for Massachusetts Coastal Waters Changsheng Chen University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA Robert C Beardsley Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543
3 Develop an end to-end inundation model system for Massachusetts Coastal Water and demonstrate its forecast capability for extratropical nor easter storm and hurricane-induced coastal flooding. Objectives
4 Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) Satellite SST Buoy Winds Insola2on Satellite SST, SSH Buoy or Survey T,S,U,V KEY Exis8ng Models NECOFS Data Products North American Meso- scale (NAM) Weather Model BC s Global- FVCOM Rdes, currents, T and S) Nested Local Weather Model (WRF) Heat Flux Wind Stress P-E U,V Regional FVCOM (GOM- FVCOM: km) Wind Stress Surface Wave Model (FVCOM- SWAVE) assimilation River discharges Groundwater MASS Coastal FVCOM (up to 10 m) U,V, Waves Langmuir Cells assimilation Mass Inunda8on Model Storm Surge (hurricanes, Nor easter) Products: Weather: winds, air temperature, air humidity, air pressure, heat flux, E- P Oceans: sea level, currents, T, S, wave heights, wave frequencies, icing Lands: inundaron areas 05/29/2013- MIT To Be Developed
5 Nested Enlarged view Enlarged view Nested (2-50 km) Global- FVCOM Nested Mass Bay (up to 10 m) GoM-FVCOM ( km) Scituate, MA (up to 10 m) Mass Coastal FVCOM (10 m-5 km) NECOFS Mul8- Nested Domains
6 Tide gauge staron The Test Site: Scituate, MA 44013
7 Sequence (leh to right) of daily weather maps at 7 EST (12 GMT) December 26, 27, 28, 2010.
8 Barometric pressure Wind direcron Wind speed Significant wave height Wind vectors At #44013 Wind vectors at Scituate Harbor (SH) Wd Dr (deg) BP (mb) Hs (m) Wd Sp (m/s) NDBC SH NDBC SH NDBC SH NDBC Wind (m/s) NDBC Wind (m/s) SH Days (Dec. 2010)
9 Wind velocity Air pressure Significant wave height Peak wave period Surface air pressure (mb) Wind Velocity Vector (m/s) Peak wave period (sec) Significant wave height (m) Observed WRF Observed Simulated Observed Simulated Observed Simulated Dec Days (Dec. 2010) a b c d
10 Maps of surface wave height (m) and direc8on (arrows) at Dec GMT
11 The Predicted Inundation Areas
12 No waves With waves
13 The August 19 Hurricane Bob
14 The WRF + Hurricane Weather Model
15 Significant wave height
16 Distributions of the model-predicted and observed maximum water elevations at available coastal stations from Eastport, ME to Lewes (DE) during the time period of August 19-21, Blue line: observed; Green line: computed with no wave- current interacron; Orange line: computed for with wave- current interacron; Red line: Rdal elevaron.
17 Water Temperature Water velocity
18 Near-bottom velocity distributions for stratified and homogeneous cases
19 h_p://porpoise1.smast.umassd.edu:8080/fvcomwms/
20 The February Blizzard Forecast The model-predicted total sea level at 10:00 AM EST on February 9, 2013 for the February 8-9 Blizzard. This prediction was made on February 7, 2013 and updated on February 8, 2013.
21 Future Challenge: Impacts of the Sea Level Rise ProjecRon of sea- level rise over based on the IPCC temperature projecron for three emission scenarios (B1, A2 and A1F1) (IPCC, 2007). Figure is downloaded from Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).
22 Bay of Fundy NEC MB
23 1. A fully current-wave coupled FVCOM inundation model system is capable of capturing the storm-induced sea level change and coastal inundation. 2. Wave- current interacron is crircally important, especially it could change the current direcron from the along- shelf direcron to the onshore direcron over the northern shelf, enlarging the onshore water transport 3. The system is ready to assess the impact of the climate change-induced sea level rise on the future storm inundation. 4. Spash-over (water driven by onshore winds and waves over the coastal sea walls) caused significant flooding. This process must be included in the future improvement of the inundation system. Summary
24 The MIT Sea Grant for the development of the Massachusetts inundation system and NERACOOS for the development and improvement of NECOFS. Sun, Y., C. Chen, R. C. Beardsley, Q. Xu, J. Qi and H. Lin, Impact of currentwave interaction on storm surge simulation: a case study for Hurricane Bob. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, in press. Beardsley, R. C., C. Chen and Q. Xu, Coastal flooding in Scitute (MA): a FVCOM study of the Dec. 27, nor easter. Journal of Geophysical Research-Ocean, in revision. Chen, C. R. C. Beardsley, R. A Luettich Jr, J. J. Westerink, H. Wang, W. Perrie, Q. Xu, A. S. Dohahue, J. Qi, H. Lin, L. Zhao, P. Kerr, Y. Meng and B. Toulany, IOOS/SURA Extratropical Storm Inundation Testbed: Inter-model (ADCIRC, FVCOM and SELFE) comparisons in Scituate, Massachusetts. Journal of Geophysical Research-Ocean, in revision. Acknowledgment References
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