Areas of the World with high Insolation

Transcription

1 Areas of the World with high Insolation 22 /43

2 Africa Annual Average Global Horizontal Solar Radiation Map 19 Jul 2006 A map depicting model estimates of monthly average daily total radiation using inputs derived from satellite and surface observations of cloud cover, aerosol optical depth, precipitable water vapor, albedo, atmospheric pressure and ozone sampled at a 40km resolution. (Purpose): A visual depiction of solar energy resource for concentrating solar power systems. 23 /43

3 Africa Annual Average Direct Normal Solar Radiation Map Jul 2006 A map depicting model estimates of monthly average daily total radiation using inputs derived from satellite and surface observations of cloud cover, aerosol optical depth, precipitable water vapor, albedo, atmospheric pressure and ozone sampled at a 40km resolution. (Purpose): A visual depiction of solar energy resource for concentrating solar power systems. 24 /43

4 Africa Annual Average Flat Plate Tilted at Latitude Map 17 Jul 2006 A map depicting model estimates of monthly average daily total radiation using inputs derived from satellite and surface observations of cloud cover, aerosol optical depth, precipitable water vapor, albedo, atmospheric pressure and ozone sampled at a 40km resolution. (Purpose): A visual depiction of solar energy resource for concentrating solar power systems. 25 /43

5 Regional Weather Modeling: Africa and MENA Domain A base regional domain includes Africa and the Mediterranean to capture large scale effects. 26 /43

6 AVHRR Related Data-NARSS 27 /43

7 Regional Modeling: Mediterranean/North Africa (NOAA) Raw Data bands: 1, 2, 3 ALBEDO NDVI 28 /43

8 Regional Weather Modeling: MENA Domain MENA, Mediterranean and North Africa Domain helps capture cross boundary effects 29 /43

9 National Weather Modeling: Animated Relative Humidity 30 /43

10 National Modeling: NOAA-AVHRR AVHRR (NARSS) 31 /43

11 Surface Temperature Distribution 32 /43

12 Some Characteristics of Insolation Solar Data Insolation data from Daggett, California on a clear March day Time and date description of the global, horizontal insolation solar resource for Cairo Egypt. Stored solar energy provides a firm capacity of 31MW until midnight at which time fossil fuel backup us used 33 /43

13 Weather Modeling and wind Forecast: Environmental Considerations for Solar Energy 34 /43

14 Circulation change IPCC Climate Change 2007 Workgroup I Projections of Future Changes in Climate Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8 C (likely range is 1.1 C to 2.9 C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0 C (likely range is 2.4 C to 6.4 C). Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable Climate change is affecting storm tracks, winds and temperature patterns Anthropogenic forcing has likely contributed Estimates must be Re-Calculated or Re-analyzed for Each Scenario 35 /43

15 Cloud cover 12:00 AM 11/12/2007 GMT High and low Altitude clouds EGXX0004 Recent changes in the cloud cover patterns must be taken into consideration when Estimates are Re-Calculated or Re-analyzed for Each Scenario 36 /43

16 Weather: Sand Storms 1/2 Effects of Pollutants especially the frequent sand and dust storms must be taken into consideration when Estimates are Re-Calculated or Re-analyzed for Each Scenario 37 /43

17 Dust Storms 2/2 Left: Right: A typical (SeaWiFS) Image showing dust from the Sahara Desert blowing over the Mediterranean Sea. Similar dust storms over the Red Sea Effects of Pollutants especially the frequent sand and dust storms must be taken into consideration when Estimates are Re-Calculated or Re-analyzed for Each Scenario 38 /43

18 Site Terrain Modeling Small scale local topology variations and details might result on negative Effects and must be taken into consideration when local Estimates are Re-Calculated or Re-analyzed for Each Scenario Toshka DEM Produced by Dr. H. Algamily (NARSS) 39 /43

19 Conclusions 1/2 Data assimilation in meteorological weather prediction and forecast models improves accuracy of surface and aloft variables and are essential to predict site wind conditions for both operational and planning tasks of Wind Farms. Comparison between MM5 and WRF predictions and the possible effects on operation is needed. Prediction of extreme pollution events has been validated and should prove to be useful for studies related to degradation of performance of Wind units. Land cover change significantly impacts local meteorological conditions Along the lake shore, diurnal variations decreased by 2 o C with significant sea-breeze around artificial lakes. Velocity is up to 5 m/s. Relative humidity increase by 90% along the lake shores. Urban encroachment in Delta increases average daily temperature by 0.28 degrees Intensive irrigation in new developed lands may results in significant temperature reduction in the cultivated areas Potential for Wind/Solar Energy Site Select, Operational Planning is Promising A joint Research Project addressing main ideas presented could be beneficial to both sides 40 /43

20 Conclusions 2/2 There is an agreement on Renewable Energy and the Roles of both Wind and Solar Energy. I did not build on cultivated Lands Egypt lands are approximately 86% base and Sedimentary rocks, and 4-5% cultivated lands. If europeans can afford to think of transporting energy over 1000 s Kms, Egyptians should seriously consider transporting energy over 100 s kms. and I did not contaminate the waters of the river Nile Use of artifially created water pools for cooling purposes. Underground water and even the Nile water may be used to create the required pools. There is a need to continuously revise the current assessments of both Wind and Solar energy potentials in the light of Climate changes and the prevailing weather and climate patterns. Local contributions to such assessments are highly recommended. There is a need and strong desire to involve the local expertise in the R & D efforts needed for Assessments, Site Selections, Design, Development, Testing and Operations of both wind and solar energy power plants and their integration into the National Energy Network. Problems related to the effects of the local weather, cloud cover, dust storms, humidity, thermal inversions,.. On the efficiency and the effectiveness of operations of wind and solar power plants need to be further stressed and studied. There is a need for a national capacity building to raise the awareness level among the media, the legislative body, the scientific community and the community at large. There is a need for a national capacity building to train the professionals from the media, the legislative bodies, the top and the middle management, the professionals ia all aspects related to renewable energy. There is a strong need to integrate renewable energy related information into educational curricula. A joint Egyptian-German effort to prepare proposals for R&D projects to satisfy the above needs is recommended