Coastal Cities-Coastal Impacts: 'The Tides They Are A-Changin

Transcription

1 Coastal Cities-Coastal Impacts: 'The Tides They Are A-Changin Susan K. Avery Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Thanks to: Jeff Donnelly, Chris Reddy, Porter Hoagland, Jim Price, Dennis McGillicuddy, Scott Doney, Kirk Waters, Don Anderson, Robert Weller, Margaret Davidson, Lonny Lippsett AMS, January 2008

2 Historical storms: Northeastern US Vulnerability September 3, 1821 Hurricane moving at about 50 mph the storm took less than 8 hours to get from NC to NY from Boose et al January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 2

3 September 3, 1821 Storm Surge: New York City Courtesy Jeff Donnelly, WHOI Maximum Water Level above MSL (m) cm of SLR since 1821 Predicted Tide Redfield (1831) - Water rose 13 feet (4 m) in one hour -0.5 Time (hours) January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 3

4 Population and wealth have substantially increased in the areas impacted by the 1821 Hurricane Coastal population in MD, DE, NJ, NY, and CT now exceeds 31 million Insured coastal property is over 1 trillion dollars Difficulty evacuating people Rockaway Beach, NY January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 4

5 January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 5

6 Sea level rise is probably greatest climate change threat to coastal urban environments IPPC(2007) January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 6

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8 Associated inundation from shallow coastal flooding and sea level rise (Charleston) Courtesy Billy Brooks, Tara Miller, Lynne Dingerson, and Kirk Waters, NOAA January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 8

9 Coastal cities also impacted by local human practices and land use Compared to 30 years ago, we have Greater populations leading to more pollution Greater pressure on resources Loss of coastal barriers and marshes More toxic and invasive species January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 9

10 Red tide in the Gulf of Maine, Spring 2005 Courtesy of Don Anderson (WHOI) and R. Signell (USGS) January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 10

11 Data-based column inventory estimates of anthropogenic CO2 from the WOCE/JGOFS program; the data are used in some of the inverse models Ocean chemistry changes affecting global waters Sabine et al., Science, 2004 January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 11

12 CO 2 Effects on CaCO 3 Saturation Ω (aragonite) Ω= [Ca 2+ ][CO 3 2- ] / K sp Δ[CO 3 2- ] = [CO 3 2- ] obs -[CO 3 2- ] sat Orr et al. Nature (2005) Present 2100 January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 12

13 Argo profiling float array: the radiosonde of the ocean Courtesy Mike Johnson, NOAA January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 13

14 New ocean observatories are coming on line January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 14

15 Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System: Simplified for storm surge and inundation prediction BC s North American Mesoscale Weather Model (NAM 32 km) Satellite SST Buoy Winds Insolation Regional Mesoscale Model (WRF) BC s Ocean GCM Global Tidal Model Freshwater Input Heat Flux Wind Stress P-E U,V Local Inundation Models (e.g., Scituate FVCOM) Surface Wave Model (FVCOM-SWAVE) GoM/GB FVCOM Global Wave Model (WAVEWATCH) U,V, Waves, Radiation Stress Storm Surge Form Drag Bottom Stress Satellite SST, U,V Buoy T,S,U,V,P BC s Sediment Transport Model (FVCOM-SED) BC s KEY In Development Existing Models Core Models Data Courtesy of Bob Beardsley, WHOI, Changsheng Chen, UMass Dartmouth, and NOAA January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 15

16 Coastal cities have increased their vulnerability but also can be part of solution Strategies for containing costs of short term disasters will be equally helpful for addressing long term sea level rise and other climate change impacts Investments in public infrastructure tied to resilient citing and design Strategic and aggressive approach towards coastal habitat acquisition, restoration, remediation and creation LEEDS-type standards for resilient structures (and tax credits) Integrated regional coastal zone management plans Energy saving and fossil fuel reduction technologies Influencing changes in life style behavior Relocation January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 16

17 The science agenda must Develop systems approach to modeling and observing coastal regions and cities (atmosphere, ocean, land; social infrastructure and human practices) Enhance integrated observing systems (both coastal and global) Work within city frameworks to provide science into decisionmaking processes Coordinate and develop sustained international partnerships Pursue adaptation focus: Energy Mitigation; Water-Adaptation January 2009, The Tides they are a changin AMS Annual Meeting 17