Hurricanes in a Warming World. Jeff Donnelly Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Transcription

1 Hurricanes in a Warming World Jeff Donnelly Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

2 Hurricanes impacting the NE US Hurricane Sandy Was Hurricane Sandy a freak of nature? Or had we just been lucky? What are the prospects for the Cape and Islands?

3 Hurricane Sandy SLOSH Simulation

4 Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide in NYC sea level in 2012 (ft) predicted tide (ft) surge+tide (ft) Water level relative to mean :00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00 Time October 29, 2012

5 Hurricane Damage Annual U.S. Losses in 2005 dollars Billions USD Year Pielke et al., 2008

6 Historical Hurricanes

7 Historical Hurricanes

8 Historical Hurricanes

9 1821 Hurricane SLOSH Simulation

10 1821 Hurricane vs. Sandy in NYC Water level rela ative to mean sea level in 1821 (ft) predicted tide (ft) surge+tide (ft) Water level l relative to mean sea lev vel in 2012 (ft) predicted tide (ft) surge+tide (ft) -10 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00 Time September 3, :00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00 Time October 29, 2012

11 2012 Storm tides in lower Manhattan Hurricanes Winter Storm Date Maximum Water Level above MSL (ft)

12 Why so much damage from Sandy? Surf City, NJ 1872 Incorporated 1894 Current population ~1200 Surf City, NJ 2010

13 Hurricane Damage Annual U.S. Losses in 2005 dollars Billions USD Year Pielke et al., 2008

14 Hurricane Damage Annual U.S. Losses If Historic Hurricanes Hit Today s Coastline (accounting for increasing coastal population and wealth) 1926 Miami 140 billion $ Billion ns USD billion $ 1954 Carol 40 billion $ 2005 Katrina 81 billion $ Rita 10 billion $ Wilma 20 billion $ Year Pielke et al., 2008

15 Sea-Level Rise feet

16 1938 Hurricane Surge

17 1938 Hurricane Impacts June 1938 September 1938 March 2012 Westhampton Beach

18 1635 Hurricane

19 Measured and Modeled Storm Tides Woods Hole, MA Monthly highest water Woods Hole tide gauge (above MHW) SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above MHW) SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above astronomical tide) meters feet (Carol) (Donna) 1991 (Bob) Irene Sandy Year Boldt et al. (2010)

20 What if Sandy hit SE New England?

21 What if Sandy hit SE New England?

22 What if Sandy hit SE New England? Woods Hole, MA Monthly highest water Woods Hole tide gauge (above MHW) SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above MHW) SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above astronomical tide) meters Hypothetical SE New England Sandy landfall feet (Carol) (Donna) 1991 (Bob) Irene Sandy Year Boldt et al. (2010)

23 Sedimentary Records of Hurricane Strikes Overwash sand layer Overwash sand layer 1 foot WHOI Overwash sand layer Overwash sand layer

24 Prehistoric Hurricanes and Climate Hurricane-induced Sand Layers Age (years CE) Overwash record Salt Pond, MA (Bob) coarse anomaly (% >63 mm)

25 Prehistoric Hurricanes and Climate Hurricane-induced Sand Layers Age (years CE) Overwash record Salt Pond, MA (Bob) coarse anomaly (% >63 mm) Basin-wide increases related to conditions in the tropics Increased East Coast activity driven by Gulf Stream dynamics

26 What Might the Future Hold? Rate of Sea-Level Rise Will Accelerate

27 What Might the Future Hold? N. Atl. Tropical SST N. Atl. Tropical Cyclones N. Hem. Mean Temp From Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012 Nature Climate Change

28 What Might the Future Hold? N. Atl. Tropical SST N. Atl. Tropical Cyclones N. Hem. Mean Temp Frequency of Hurricanes Could Increase Using IPCC AR4 models Worst Case Best Case Modern

29 What Might the Future Hold? Frequency of Hurricanes Could Increase From Emanuel, 2013 PNAS Using IPCC AR5 models

30 Summary Was Hurricane Sandy a freak of nature? Or had we just been lucky?

31 Summary Was Hurricane Sandy a freak of nature? Or had we just been lucky? Cape and Islands have been relatively fortunate over the last 50+ years (unfortunately this was a time of unprecedented coastal development)

32 Summary Was Hurricane Sandy a freak of nature? Or had we just been lucky? Cape and Islands have been relatively fortunate over the last 50+ years (unfortunately this was a time of unprecedented coastal development) Storms of far greater intensity than Hurricane Sandy (and Bob) impacted the region historically (and prehistorically)

33 Summary Was Hurricane Sandy a freak of nature? Or had we just been lucky? Cape and Islands have been relatively fortunate over the last 50+ years (unfortunately this was a time of unprecedented coastal development) Storms of far greater intensity than Hurricane Sandy (and Bob) impacted the region historically (and prehistorically) Over the last two millennium historically unprecedented intense hurricane activity occurred

34 Summary Increased hurricane activity along the eastern US seaboard is possible in the coming decades

35 Summary Increased hurricane activity along the eastern US seaboard is possible in the coming decades The impacts of future hurricane activity will be greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise and coastal population growth, regardless of whether or not we experience significant increases in hurricane landfalls

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