Building Marina Resilience to Storms Wisconsin Marine Association Conference November 2-3, 2016
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1 Julia Noordyk NOAA Great Lakes Coastal Storms Program Outreach Coordinator UW Sea Building Marina Resilience to Storms Wisconsin Marine Association Conference November 2-3, 2016
2 July 16, 2016
3
4
5 Storm damage estimates around $30 million
6
7
8 Climate vs Weather
9 Climate vs Weather
10
11 Global projections on a scale relevant to Wisconsin Global Climate Model Downscaled
12 Temperatures are rising in the Midwest ( ) Source: NCA 2014
13 Wisconsin s climate is changing 2 F -1 F Observed Change in Annual Temperature ( F)
14 Wisconsin s climate will continue changing 6.5 F Projected Change in Annual Temperature ( F)
15 Warming will be the largest in winter 8.5 F 8.0 F 7.5 F Projected Change in Winter Average Temperature ( F) from 1980 to 2055
16 Is climate change moving Wisconsin to Arkansas??? Summer by 2095 Winter by 2095
17 Source: NCA 2014
18 What do these warming trends mean for the Great Lakes? Temperatures: Warm winters and higher minimum temperatures Dewpoints: Greater Frequency of Tropical-like atmospheric water vapor Moisture: Amplified precipitation signal, thunderstorm contribution Intense precipitation
19 Wisconsin s Precipitation Increase in 2 rainfalls (days per decade)
20 More Large Storm Events days more per decade of 2 precipitation events 2.5
21 Climate Change Predictions For Wisconsin By the end of this century scenarios for: Summer Temperatures: 8-18 F Warmer (nights) Winter Temperatures: 6-11 F Warmer (less ice!) Extreme rainfall Events: % more common Unclear about total precipitation (??) Lake Level Predictions????
22 What does this mean for Wisconsin Marinas?
23 So, what do we do now?!
24 Make our marinas more resilient!
25 Evaluate risks to infrastructure and grounds
26 Particularly look for failing wood infrastructure
27 Invest in Long-term Actions
28 Make repairs
29 Install floating docks
30 Restore and reinforce breakwaters
31 Improve stormwater capacity Egg Harbor
32 Anticipate the need for dredging Identify Jurisdiction for Dredging Collect Required Information Explore Funding Options
33 Planning and Financing Huh? Do I really have to?
34 YES!!!! WATER RECREATIONAL DISTRICT $$$ City of St Joseph Land Use Plan
35 Create Facility-Specific Plans What is your facility s ability to: Prepare for approaching storm? Respond during a crisis? Re-open after an major storm event? Recover long-term?
36
37 Estimate Costs for Resilience Actions
38 Explore Financing Options?? WRRDA
39 USACE Monthly Bulletin of Great Lakes Water Levels
40 NOAA Lake Level Viewer
41
42 NOAA Great Lakes Lake Level Viewer Algoma Record Record high low lake lake level level with 2 storm Current surge lake levels
43 Great Lakes Water Level Dashboard
44 Lake Michigan Water Levels (1918-present) Record High Oct 1986 Difference of about 6 feet between record low and high Today 1918 Record Low Jan 2013 Surface Elevation in feet (International Great Lakes Datum of 1985)
45 Other Resources
46 THANK YOU! Julia Noordyk NOAA Great Lakes Coastal Storms Program Outreach Coordinator University of Wisconsin Sea Grant
47 All values are averaged over the period of
48
49 GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS Connected System of Lakes
50 GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS Great Lakes System Profile
51 GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS Major Natural Factors ICE!
52 GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS Great Lakes Diversions
53 GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS 1918 Mean WL
54 GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS Short-term Water Level Fluctuations: Seiches Periodic water level oscillations caused by air pressure & wind Small seiches are very, every common (less than a foot typically)
55 Lake Michigan Water Levels (1975-present) 1975 Record High Oct 1986 Surface Elevation in feet (International Great Lakes Datum of 1985) year period of below average lake levels followed by rapid 4 foot rise from
56 Very Long Term Water Level Changes Chart Datum (in feet) Lake level about 400 and 900 years ago Historic water level range about 6 (1886 to present) Lake level about 1,000 years ago Record High 1986 Record Low 2013
57 GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS Last 16 Year Lake Levels Note 15 Straight Years of Low Levels Note 14 Consecutive Years with ALL Months Below LWD!! Note Relative Normal Annual Fluctuations
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