MGC September Webinar Taking Climate Action September 22, 2016

Transcription

1 MGC September Webinar Taking Climate Action September 22, 2016

2 Today s Agenda Presentations B.J. Baule, Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Kate Madigan, Michigan Environmental Council/Michigan Climate Action Network Questions

3 Observed and Projected Climate Change in Michigan B.J. Baule Climatologist Photo Credit: B.J. Baule

4 Climate on Global to Local Scales Global trends are more certain than regional or local trends. Local factors can drastically alter the magnitude of climate change impacts, but can also be adapted to more readily.

5 Adaptation and Mitigation Projected Global Average Temperature Adaptation Mitigation

6 What s in a degree?

7 Observed Rising Temperatures Future 1.9 F Warmer to 6 F Warmer Source: GLISA and Third National Climate Assessment

8 Winters are warming faster. 1.9 F increase averaged over the entire year 3.2 F increase during winter (December February) Source: GLISA and Third National Climate Assessment

9 A Longer Freeze-free Season Observed Future 11 Days Longer to 70 Days Longer Observed changes due mostly to earlier last winter freeze Source: GLISA and Third National Climate Assessment

10 Observed Snowfall Average Average More here Less here Snowfall has generally increased across the Northern Midwest, remained stable in the central latitudes, and has decreased in the southern areas. From MRCC

11 More Precipitation Total annual precipitation has increased by: 8.9% Not even across the state. Has increased most in SE MI (+17%). Decreased over the Western UP (-6%) Changes are calculated from linear best fits of annual totals from Source: National Climatic Data Center

12 Projected Precipitation Annual +5 to 20% Winter +10 to 30% Spring +0 to +30% Summer -10 to 0% Fall +0 to +30% NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC

13 Precipitation Impacts: Seasonal Changes and Water Supply Changing Seasonal Precipitation: Warmer springs and more precipitation increase the potential for mixed precipitation and variable spring weather. Summer Water Availability: Even as annual total precipitation increases, summers may become drier.

14 More Problem Precipitation 1.25-inch Precipitation Days: 25% Nuisance flooding and minor damages are reported more frequently after these events Changes are calculated from linear best fits of annual totals from Source: National Climatic Data Center

15 Extreme Heat and Humidity By mid-century, models project Michigan could see: 90 F Days more days per year 95 F Days 5 to 20 more days per year But, it is unclear if there has been a significant observed change in hot days.

16 A Migrating Climate The climate future generations experience will be fundamentally different than the climate today. By the end of this century, Michigan summers will feel more like current summers in Arkansas. Courtesy UCS 2009, original work by Hayhoe et al.

17 In adapting to Climate Change Cities can lead by example. Photo Credit: Dan Brown

18 Online Resources Local Climatologies Over 25 climatologies available online Additional climatologies available upon request 238 quality controlled stations available via GLISA or via the Cities Impacts and Adaptation Tool

19 Online Resources Regional Climatologies

20 Online Resources State Climate Resources

21 Decision Support Tools Cities Impacts and Adaptation Tool Region-Wide Information: Climate Data Peer Network Map Climate Adaptation Strategies Database

22 Thanks! Questions? glisa.msu.edu graham.umich.edu/climate

23 Build a more powerful climate movement in Michigan, Elevate climate change as a top issue in the state, and Drive urgent action on policy solutions at every level to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.

24 Kalamazoo Climate Change Coalition

25 Vision: 100 percent clean energy by 2050, creating a stable, sustainable climate.

26 MPSC 2015: Report on the Implementation of the P.A. 295 Renewable Energy Standard and the Cost-Effectiveness of the Energy Standards Renewable energy and energy optimization combined cost $37.43 per MWh, less than any new generation, including new natural gas combined cycle plants. Even more encouraging (than Michigan s steady progress on its RPS) is the continued downward price trend of renewable energy contracts, the last few of which are less than any new electric generation. - MPSC Chair Sally Talberg Governor Snyder 2015: Michigan should get 30-40% of its energy from clean energy by 2025.

27 Nearly 100 Cities Working to Decarbonize Source:

28

29 Kate Madigan, Director

30 Next Steps Great Lakes Adaptation Forum October 5 to 7 Climate Resource Team Climate Action Plan List