Research on Climate of Typhoons Affecting China

Transcription

1 Research on Climate of Typhoons Affecting China Xu Ming Shanghai Typhoon Institute November,25

2 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Typhoon disasters in China 3. Climatology and climate change of typhoon affecting China 4.Climate prediction of typhoon affecting China 5. Summary

3 The global average surface temperature has increased over the 2th century by about.6 C. The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 C over the period 199 to 21. (From IPCC 21)

4 More frequent, persistent and intense warm episodes of ENSO since the mid-197s Global sea level rose by 1-2 cm during the 2th century. 1% decrease in snow cover since 196s (IPCC 21)

5 Climate Change and Tropical cyclones IPCC Report (21) 1. It is likely that peak wind intensities will increase by 5 to 1% and mean and peak precipitation intensities by 2 to 3% in some regions; 2. There is no direct evidence of changes in the frequency or areas of formation. No evidence for typhoon intensity increase over the past 4 yr (Chan and Liu 24) More major hurricanes since 1995 (Goldenberg et al. 21), multidecadal oscillation (Bell et al. 25) A South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

6 Climate Change and Tropical cyclone Intensity Emanuel, K., 25, Nature, 436, PDI= V 3 dt

7 Typhoon disasters in China

8 Natural Disasters Throughout human history, natural disasters have played a major role in the economic development and survival of humanity. The economic cost associated with all natural disasters has increased 14 fold since the 195s Deaths since the 195s increased 5 percent each decade, whereas the corresponding population growth rate was only 2 percent World wide, annual economic costs related to natural disasters have been estimated at about $ 5 to 1 billion. By the year 25 it is predicted that globally1, lives will be lost each year to natural disasters and the global cost could top $ 3 billion annually

9 Percentage of Total Number of People Reported Affected by Hydro- Meteorological Disasters by Region <1% 2% 6% 91% <1%

10 Economic losses of Tropical cyclone disaster (unit: million US$) Number of deaths of typhoon disasters Losses caused by typhoon disaster in China

11 Climatology and climate change of typhoon affecting China

12 Monthly Distribution of TC Landing China Landfall TC TS STS TY Multi-Landfall TC TS STS TY

13 Main Tracks of TC Affecting China

14 Number of TCS affecting China atcbtscty 25 Affecting TCs Affecting TSs Affecting TYs

15 asouth ChinabEast China Affecting TCs (South China) Affecting TCs (East China)

16 Affecting scope of typhoon precipitation atcbtscty 25 TCs Rainfll TSs Rainfall TYs Rainfall

17 Affecting scope of typhoon wind power (a)tc (b)ts (c)ty Severe-Wind (TCs) Severe-Wind (TSs) Severe-Wind (TYs)

18 Annual accumulated rainfall of typhoons achinabsouth ChinacEast China 4 Annual TC Rainfall Annual TC Rainfall (South China) Annual TC Rainfall (East China)

19 Intensity of typhoon affecting wind power achinabsouth ChinacEast China 25 TC Distruction Potential TDP (South China) TDP (East China)

20 Number of typhoons landing China atcbtscty 18 Landfalling TCs Landfalling TSs Landfalling TYs

21 Landfalling TCs -- South China Landfalling TSs -- South China Landfalling TCs -- East China Landfalling TSs -- East China Landfalling TYs -- South China 6 5 Landfalling TYs -- East China

22 19121

23 Economical losses caused by typhoons in China(1 thousands Yuan)

24 Typhoon affecting East China in historical times Reconstruct and analyze historical disaster records

25

26 Projection of Typhoon Number Based on the IPCC-Scenario Simulation Trend of typhoon counts was deduced from the model simulation results based on the relationship between typhoons counts and atmospheric general circulation over western north Pacific ocean. Large-scale factors that influencing the generation of typhoon used in this research :upper level circulation, vertical shear of horizontal wind

27 Projection of Typhoon Number Based on the IPCC-Scenario Simulation R3 Coupled Model of GFDL / NOAA Results integrated 1yrs IPCC SRES A2 IPCC SRES B2

28 Anomaly of 2 hpa diversity during JunSep over West North Pacific S TC 1.9% More A2 Scenario TC11.6% Less 3 2 B2 Scenario TC 1.4% Less

29 Projection of Typhoon Number Based on the IPCC-Scenario Simulation Under the assumption of IPCC A2, which means more emission of greenhouse gas,typhoon number will be above normal during 21-23, and typhoon number will be less than normal during Under the assumption of IPCC B2, which means emission of greenhouse gas is controlled,typhoon number will be be less than normal during

30 Climate prediction of typhoon affecting China

31 Climate prediction of number of typhoons affecting East China and Shanghai Predictands:5hPa HeightSST Methods: Regression, PP Prediction time : 2December,March

32 Climate prediction of typhoon affecting East China Fo re c a st Ob se rva tio n

33 Climate prediction of number of typhoons over western North Pacific Ocean and number of typhoons landing China Method:RegressionAnalogue Predictands:5hPa HeightSLPVertical Shear of horizontal wind, SST Prediction results of 25: Below normal for typhoons over NW Pacific normal for typhoons landing China

34 Summary 1. Some progresses have been made in the field of climate of typhoon affecting China. 2.Mechanisms of long term and short term climate change of typhoon affecting China are still unclear. 3. The assessment of typhoon disaster impacts is underdeveloped

35 Tank You!