Sea-Level Rise Impacts on South Florida

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1 Sea-Level Rise Impacts on South Florida Keren Prize Bolter, PhD Science Director, Coastal Risk Consulting. LLC 5/3/16

2 FAQ list What is happening? What impacts are we already seeing? Just how vulnerable are we? Who is at risk? Do people know? What is being done? What more needs to be done?

3 What causes changes in sea level? LOCAL Sea level rise GLOBAL Sea level rise Source: UCSUSA.org Land ice accounted for about 65% of the total SLR budget from 1993 to (Church et al., 2011) There are 65 m of equivalent sea level stored in glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets (NRC, 2012)

4 Tidal/Sea Level Rise Flooding Will Only Increase 4

5 Florida is not just going underwater but Tidal Flooding Saltwater Intrusion Failing Drainage Malfunctioning Canals Beach Erosion Habitat loss Reduced Groundwater Storage

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8 Online Climate Risk Forecasts for Everyone Coastal Risk forecasts climate risks: Tidal/sea level rise Storm Surge High Groundwater/Heavy Rainfall Plus, 6 other risk categories, including wind Coastal Risk forecasts the number of days of tidal flooding each year, location and depth of flooding (LIDAR/parcel level). Software as a Service fast, accurate and affordable. 8

9 Winners and Losers FEMA flood maps treat all properties the same within designated flood zones Different structures in same neighborhood have different freeboard Coastal Risk identifies and scores freeboard on a LIDAR/parcel level In same neighborhood, any storm or flooding (except perhaps Cat 3-5) will differentially impact structures Coastal Risk provides more accurate prediction of flood impacts 9

10 Not All Flood Scores Are High -- Two $8M homes on Zillow Golden Beach House #1 Golden Beach House #2

11 How High to Adapt? How Long Will It Last? Before and After Projections Using CRC tools 11

12 Framing messages about sea level rise Health Impacts Financial Impacts Habitat Loss Environmental Justice Sustainability for future generations Catastrophic impacts of creeping changes

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14 Rising Seas- Sea Level Rise & South Florida Real Estate May 3, 2016 Tower Club Nancy J. Gassman, Ph.D. Asst. Public Works Dir., City of Fort Lauderdale

15 City of Fort Lauderdale Land Elevation Map * Red represents areas below 5 feet elevation. * Quick glance at long term vulnerabilities

16 Two Foot Sea Level Rise Scenario Major Impacts * Local streets * Low lying communities * Low lying areas in golf courses and parks * Marine facilities

17 Miami, FL 240 events in 2045 Tidal Flooding today, in 2030 and in 2045 Southeast Florida will advance from <10 events today to 240 events in 2045

18 Drainage Under Average Tidal Conditions Storm drain Road Yard Sea Wall Saltwater Storm drain

19 Drainage Challenge with Sea Level Rise Saltwater Storm drain Road torm drain Yard Back flow preventer Sea Wall Saltwater

20 2011 Halloween Storm Rainfall during an extreme high tide caused coastal flooding. Freshwater Stormwater cannot drain Road Storm drain Yard Sea Pump Wall High Tide

21 Comprehensive Multi-year Stormwater Master Plan Improvement Features TIDAL CONTROL VALVES RECHARGE DRAINAGE WELL EXFILTRATION TRENCH BIOSWALES PERVIOUS PAVERS & PAVEDRAIN SEAWALL REPAIRS & UPGRADES STORMWATER PRESERVES PUMPING STATIONS

22 Proposed Seawall Ordinance ULDR Section Sets min and max seawall elevations Requires maintaining seawalls in good repair Requires owners to prevent tidal waters entering their property from impacting others

23 Identification of 16 Adaptation Action Areas meeting minimum AAA criteria Includes 38 Capital Projects in the Community Investment Plan (CIP) for funding

24 Responding with Resilience Storm Impact Anchors the knee wall Adds elevation and drains away from properties

25 Questions?

26 2015 Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for SE FL Possible Likely