Coastal Vulnerability Assessment in Semarang City, Indonesia Based on Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence Scenarios
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1 Coastal Vulnerability Assessment in Semarang City, Indonesia Based on Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence Scenarios I. M. Radjawane, D. Hartadi and W. R. Lusano Oceanography Research Division Fac. of Earth Sciences and Technology Institut Teknologi Bandung,Indonesia Presented at the LOICZ OSC 2011, Oseanografi Systems, ITB Global Change and Suistainability Yantai, China, September 2011
2 INTRODUCTION Coastal resources will be effected by a number of consequences of climate change, including: Higher sea levels Higher sea temperatures Changes in precipitation patterns and coastal runoff Changed oceanic conditions Changes in storm tracks, frequencies, and intensities
3 BLUE COUNTRY Located in the tropics between two continents (Asia & Australia) and between two oceans (Pacific & Indian Oceans) The place connecting the Pacific and the Indian Oceans in the lower latitudes Coastline length : km (DKP, 2009) Country area : 1,919,440 km 2 Number of Islands : High biodiversity of marine life
4 70% of Indonesian population lived in Java Island High development industry and infrastructures Low land coastal city area Indundation/Flooding problems
5 GENERAL CONDITION Semarang is the capital city of the Central Java province Semarang Area : km 2 Population (2007) : people, grow rate 1.41%/yr Population Density : people/km 2 with denser population in the northern part
6 Semarang City, Central Java, INDONESIA heavy rainfall sea level rise erosion housing hotels/tourism restaurants fishermen trees brackishwater pond flooded area comercial areas Office buildings urban buildings tidal flood lost mangroves erosion land subsidence Salt water intrusion
7 Coastal Area of Semarang Housing Area Brackish water Sea wall
8 Population density within of a 10m Low Elevation Coastal Zone peoples l ives in area below 10m (IIED, 2007) Semarang After :CIESIN, Univ. Columbia, 2007
9 GENERAL CONDITION Semarang consisted of two major landscapes, namely coastal plain area (1%) and lowland (33%) in the north and center and hilly area in the south. The northern part, is relatively flat with topographical slopes ranging between 0 and 2 0, and altitude between 0 and 3.5 m, where the city centre, seaport, airport and railway stations are located and more industrial and business area. The northern part of Semarang is composed by very young alluvium with high compressibility (Abidin et al., 2010) Mariculture and fisheries areas Semarang is a prone vulnerable area.
10 After Mercy Corps
11 FLOODING IN SEMARANG Stasion Airport Main Road Source : Various
12 INUNDATION MAP IN SEMARANG GPS TRACKING OCTOBER 2009 Radjawane et al, 2009
13 LAND SUBSIDENCE IN SEMARANG 1. Natural Consolidation Process Young Alluvium Soil 2. Increases in the population and urban development in the area - increase land subsidence through excessive groundwater extraction, groundwater level rate lowering in period of 1980 and 1996 is about 1.2 to 2.2 m/year [Marsudi, 2001]. - Increase load of building and infrastructure
14 Land Subsidence Rate in Semarang GPS PS InSAR Courtesy of Geological Agency Bandung, after [Murdahardono et al., 2009; Kuehn et al., 2009]. After Abidin et al., 2010
15 Land Subsidence Impact in Semarang Courtesy to Abidin, H, Z et al., 2010
16 Semarang Shoreline Changing The shoreline of Semarang progresses relatively quick toward the sea, about 2 km in 2.5 centuries or about 8 m/year. Van Bemmelen, 1949; Marfai et.al Courtesy to ACCRN, Mercy Corps, 2009
17 Digital Elevation Model of Semarang in the year 2000
18 Elevation Zone of Semarang City
19 SEA LEVEL RISE IN SEMARANG SLR : 2.11mm/year Data collected from Ministry of Public Work After Lusano, 2010
20 Land Subsidence Map using in DEM Linear rate of land subsidence: 3.93cm/year Data collected from Ministry of Public Work After Lusano, 2010
21 Semarang inundation Area affected by Tides and Storm (Rob) Simulation of Tides+ Mitag+Hagibis Storm in Nov 2007 Hanifah, 2010 Annual Average of Inundated Height : 50cm
22 Projection 2025 SLR Scenarios SLR+LS Industrial Inundated Area (ha) SLR Housing inundated Area (ha) SLR+LS SLR+LS+ Storm SLR+LS+Storm
23 Inundation Projection During HAT (Highest Astronomical Tide) Tidal Prediction Occur every 18.6 years
24 Worst Scenario Sea Level Rise+Land Subsidence+Storm+Highest Tide Industrial Inundated Area : Ha Housing Inundated Area : Ha
25 Parameters of Physical Coastal Vulnerability Index No Parameter Unit Description (a) Coastal slope % Linked to the susceptibility of a coast to inundation by flooding and to the rapidity of shoreline retreat or advance (b) Tide range meter Contributes to coastal inundation hazards (c) Wave height meter Linked to coastal inundation hazards (d) Sea-level rise mm/ years Correspond to how the global (eustatic) sea-level rise has affected a section of shoreline (e) Coastal geomorphology - Indicates the relative erodibility of a section of shoreline (f) Shoreline erosion/ accretion m/ years Indicates how fast a section of shoreline has been eroding or accreting CVI a* b* c* d* e* f /6 Adopted from Thieler and Hammar-Klose, USGS, 2000
26 Physical Coastal Vulnerability Map Semarang
27 COASTAL TYPE OF SEMARANG AREA After Marfai and King, 2007
28 Socio Economic Vulnerability Index After Szlafsztein, 2005
29 Socio Economic Vulnerability Map
30 Total Coastal Vulnerability Index
31 Total Coastal Vulnerabilty Index in Semarang City Hartadi, 2009
32 Government Strategies Mangrove reforestation and develop coastal bank Polder system construction Soft and Hard engineering construction - Sea wall construction along 2.4 Km - Improvement of road construction along the coast Action Plan based on Disaster Mitigation Study
33 DISCUSSIONS Local sea level rise and average land subsidence rate in Semarang are 2.11 mm/year and 3.93/year respectively. The annual height of storm/rob is 50 cm and the highest astronomical tide is 55cm. Land subsidence is significant component and combine with the sea level rise accelerated the coverage of inundation in Semarang coastal area. Coastal vulnerability map show high vulnerabilty region in dense population in northern part of Semarang because of geological and physical aspect, high dense population area and high development region. We need an integrated and multi discipline framework of action plan programs to cope the climate change problems.
34 Thank You for Your Attention
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