9 th INTECOL Orlando, Florida June 7, 2012
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1 Restoration of the Everglades Saline Wetlands and Florida Bay: Responses Driven from Land and Sea David Rudnick 1, Colin Saunders 2, Carlos Coronado 2, Fred Sklar 2 Erik Stabenau 1, Vic Engel 1, Rene Price 3 1 South Florida Natural Resources Center, Everglades National Park 2 Everglades Systems Assessment Section, South Florida Water Management District 3 Dept. of Earth and Environment, Florida International University 9 th INTECOL Orlando, Florida June 7, 2012
2 What are the primary manageable drivers of the Everglades - Florida Bay Ecosystem?..water, salt, phosphorus water P Human development drained water & added P, yielding: dry wetland; soil oxidation hypersaline estuary & salt-water intrusion altered ecosystem structure and function Sea-level rise is: increasing saltwater intrusion increasing P input from the Gulf of Mexico water salt P Restoration can push back against the trajectory of each of these forcings Today : discuss the state & future of the restoration sea-level rise contest
3 Everglades Restoration: Freshwater flow from Kissimmee River to Florida Bay Historic Flow Current Flow Florida Bay Restoration Plan Flow
4 Global sea-level rise trend and projections IPCC (2007) From Nicholls and Cazenave (2010)
5 Portion of Everglades National Park highly vulnerable to 60 cm sea-level rise Everglades National Park boundary Relative Elevation mean sea level + 10 cm + 20 cm + 30 cm + 40 cm + 50 cm + 60 cm Data from USGS
6 Saltwater Intrusion Caused by Freshwater Diversion and Sea-level Rise Saltwater intrusion with expanding white zone is more extensive east of Everglades National Park White zone expanded 1-3 km from (from Ross et al. 2000)
7 Saltwater Intrusion in Southeastern Groundwater Well G21 Conductivity (us/cm; approx 58 depth)) Municipal water supply wells Monitoring well 0
8 Saltwater Intrusion: Shallow Groundwater (<25 m) From Price et al. 2006
9 Shark River Slough Stage Rising With Sea Level P35: 2.6 mm/y (from 1953) Key West sea level: 2.2 mm/y (from 1913; 2.4 mm/y (from 1953) Station P35 If shallower hydrologic slope, higher stages, increased inundation, slower flow, longer residence time.
10 Biogeochemical Effects of Saltwater Intrusion Conceptual model: increased saltwater intrusion increases subsurface P mobility and flux P input to mangrove zone and near-shore waters: change with restoration? From Price et al. 2010
11 Phosphorus Input from Groundwater? Evidence that saltwater intrusion may cause the release of phosphorus from bedrock to the mangrove zone and estuaries From Price et al. 2006
12 Surface Elevation Tables (SETs) Surface Processes: Sediment Deposition Sediment Erosion Marsh Surface Elevation Change Shallow Subsidence Accretion Rates Elevation Change = Shallow Subsidence/Expansion
13 GWrecharge area C-110 (plugs) Coastal Wetland SET Study Area Non-flooded: Buttonwood Ridge Taylor Slough Study area Frequently flooded Permanently flooded
14 mm yr -1 mm yr -1 Summary of coastal wetland SET results: soil elevation changes slower than sea-level rise Southwestern Everglades change over 10 yrs From Smith et al Southeastern Everglades - change over 11 yrs From Coronado et al. 2011
15 Rapid Marsh Elevation Loss on Cape Sable Associated with saltwater intrusion from canals - an indicator of future peat collapse? Marsh Subsidence From H. Wanless
16 Florida Bay Florida Bay Biogenic Carbonate Mud Banks: Restrict water exchange, dampen storm energy Influence salinity (hypersalinity to 70 psu) Increase nutrient retention Strong interaction with seagrass beds
17 Florida Bay Mudbank Surface Elevation Tables Russell Bank Cross Bank Nine Mile Bank 5 of 9 sites had increasing elevation ( 5-11 mm/y over 10 y period) Bob Allen Bank 18 of 20 sites had decreasing elevation (10 y period) From Robert Halley, USGS
18 Climate Change and Elevation Response precipitation - ET change Groundwater salt and P upwelling Fresh water flow, Inundation N, org C supply Wetland soil response: Root growth / mortality Soil stability / peat collapse Erosion Accretion, subsidence Nutrient accumulation or loss Turbidity source Salt water intrusion P supply Tidal and storm energy precipitation - ET change Salinity, energy, circulation response Mud bank elevation response Sea level
19 Conclusion: Soil and mud bank elevation changes are slower than recent sea-level rise The state of future Everglades wetland and estuarine systems can be influenced by restoration Speculative forecast: Landscape will be shaped by oceanic energy, but modified by plant-soil response to sealevel rise and restoration Marine P will increase productivity Estuarine systems will expand, still with dependence on freshwater flow.
20 With sorrow, respect and thanks to two friends and mentors John Ogden Scott Nixon
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