Global Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers. World Meteorological Organization. J. Lengoasa WMO Deputy Secretary-General

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1 WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Global Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers J. Lengoasa WMO Deputy Secretary-General jlengoasa@wmo.int

2 Climate Investment Funds Resilience: New Tools for Managing the Unavoidable Need for variety of investments in climate resilience More resilient economies which can: absorb weather-related shocks adapt better to longer-term changes in temperature and rainfall patterns more easily bounce back sooner. Key focus of cities and coastal areas

3 Disaster Risk Management WEF, 2011

4 Building Resilience Early Warning WEF, 2011 (adapted)

5 Billions of USD per decade Geological Hydrometeorological WMO Economic losses related to disasters are increasing decade Millions of casualties per decade Geological but we are saving lives Hydrometeorological Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database decade 5

6 Our Changing Climate WMO Highest number of broken National Maximum Temp Records in compared to the previous three decades More hot days and more heat waves Lowest number of broken National Minimum Temp Records in compared to the previous three decades Less cool nights The previous two decades recorded highest number of National 24hour Precipitation Record Intensification of heavy rainfall (Source: WMO country data).

7 Global Temperature Trends Temperature anomaly by decade over six geographical regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, North America and Oceania. Countries with no data provided are blank. The anomalies are computed with respect to period (WMO country data)

8 Decadal precipitation anomalies for global land areas for the decade Decadal precipitation anomalies for global land areas for ; gridded 1.0-degree raingauge-based analysis as normalized departures in mm/year focussing on base period. (Source: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany)

9 Annual precipitation anomalies for global land areas for 2010 Annual precipitation anomalies for global land areas for 2010; gridded 1.0-degree raingaugebased analysis as percentage of normals 4 focussing on base period. (Source: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, 5 3 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany) 2 Major floods in Many regions

10 Record low sea ice extent 2007 Long Term Average 2012

11 Climate Prediction Framework 11

12 Climate Services: A Revolution in the Application of Climate Science From mitigation to mitigation and adaptation From few to many customers/users/stakeholders Global century scenarios to regional predictions, days to decades ahead Climate change to climate change and climate variability Broad climate to characteristics of weather; including extremes and impacts Operational delivery regularly updated monitoring, forecasts, products & services

13 A global integrated approach 13

14 The pillars of the GFCS

15 User Interface Platform 16

16 Climate Services Information System

17 Research, modelling and prediction Regional climate information Regional sea-level rise Cryosphere Atmosphere and climate Changes in water availability Prediction and attribution of extreme events Climate and socio-economic factors

18 Observations and information systems The WMO Integrated Global Observing System integrates data collection and exchange for improved weather forecasts and climate services.

19 Capacity development Strengthening of institutional and technical infrastructure Human resources development & renewal Continuing education and training Special needs of LDCs Gender issues

20 Implementation and partnerships The GFCS Will build on the experiences of National Meteorological Services Will support climate research in NMSs especially in the developing world All the WMO s constituent bodies are expected to play important roles United Nations and other will be important partners

21 Climate Services: Unlocking the potential Increasingly complex science, modelling and prediction systems Increasingly complex user requirements, requiring multi-disciplinary and multi-scale approaches Partnerships in science and delivery are essential Dialogue with end users is vital

22 Climate Information Value Chain Source: PPCR, World Bank (2012)

23 Dealing with climate vulnerability February 2009 forecast for Horn of Africa March-April-May long rains now 10 model multi-model ensemble-mean prediction Regional Climate Outlook Forum consensus Observed rainfall Anomalies (mm) category probabilities: drought twice as likely as flood Reuters May 12, 2009: Somalia s worst drought in a decade is pushing growing numbers of children into nearfamine conditions and deepening the humanitarian crisis caused by political violence, the United Nations warned Crown copyright Met Office Estimated food security condition, April-June 2009

24 Queensland flooding: A predictable event? Seasonal forecasts of La Nina from August 2010 Ensemble mean rainfall anomalies (mm/day) for Nov Jan from October Crown copyright Met Office NB: 2.5 mm/day = 230mm accumulated

25 Transition to a low-carbon global economy WBGU, 2009

26 Implementation Partnerships

27 Thank you