Climate Change and Stormwater. Daniel Brown, Research Associate, GLISA

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1 Climate Change and Stormwater Daniel Brown, Research Associate, GLISA

2 Global Trends and Regional Trends Global trends are more certain than regional trends. Natural variability plays a larger role at the regional scale. Local changes in land use can alter the severity of climate change impacts.

3 Southeast Michigan Temperature Changes in Mean Temperature ( F) from to Annual 0.6 Winter 1.4 Spring 1.0 Summer 0.3 Fall -0.1

4 Northwest Ohio Temperature Changes in Mean Temperature ( F) from to Annual 0.8 Winter 1.6 Spring 1.0 Summer 0.5 Fall 0.3

5 The Great Lakes are Warming Average Great Lakes ice coverage declined 71% percent from 1973 to 2010 AMS, 2011 Lake Superior is warming twice as fast as nearby air. Winter ice cover is decreasing. NASA Lake Superior could have little to no open-lake ice cover during a typical winter within the next 30 years. Austin and Colman, 2007

6 Future Midwest Temperature High Emissions Scenario ~9 F ~12 F Low Emissions Scenario ~5 F ~6 F Modified from Hayhoe et al, 2010

7 Observed Southeast Michigan Precipitation Changes in Total Precipitation (%) from to Annual 11.9 Winter 12.7 Spring 2.6 Summer 5.3 Fall 28.3

8 Observed Northwest Ohio Precipitation Changes in Total Precipitation (%) from to Annual 7.1 Winter 6.2 Spring 1.2 Summer 6.2 Fall 17.1

9 Observed Ann Arbor Precipitation Changes in Total Precipitation (%) from to Annual 25.0 Winter 16.5 Spring 7.0 Summer 7.4 Fall 16.3

10 Wet Days Frequency of Wet Days and Wet/Wet Days Caro, MI

11 Projected Precipitation vs Annual +5 to 15% Winter +5 to 20% Spring +0 to 20% Summer +10 to -10% Fall +0 to 20% Kunkel (2011)

12 Shorter Winters Across the Region Earlier last winter frost in spring Later first winter frost in autumn Future growing season longer by ~1-2 months Wubbles & Hayhoe (2004)

13 Changing Winter Precipitation Shorter winters have lead to more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow. Warmer surface temperatures have reduced snow accumulation. More lake effect precipitation events have increased snowfall in some areas. Photo credits: Umich.edu, NASA, weather.com

14 Observed Snowfall Average Average More here Less here Snowfall has generally increased across the Northern Midwest, remained stable in the central latitudes, and has decreased in the southern areas.

15 Observed Extreme Precipitation Ann Arbor: 42% Increase in the number of 1% heaviest precipitation events total compared to The Intensity of the heaviest 1% of precipitation events increased by 31% in the Midwest and by 67% in the Northeast from 1958 to 2007.

16 Observed Extreme Precipitation The frequency of the heaviest 7-day precipitation events has increased. The 10 wettest days in a year are delivering more precipitation. (Pryor et al., 2009)

17 Worldwide Weather Disasters

18 Northern Midwest Climate Extremes

19 Flooding and Stormwater Observed increases in total precipitation and more frequent intense storms are already impacting the area.

20 Severe Weather Impact Example Thunder Bay, Ontario and Duluth, Minnesota experienced similar excessive rainfall in June Thunder Bay took proactive storm management steps and avoided much of the severe damage that Duluth experienced.

21 Example of Cascade Impacts Temperature Changes in Climate Precipitation Physical Effects Increased Runoff of Pollutants, Changed Lake Physics Impacts Beach Closures, Algal Blooms, Dead Zones

22 Water Quality Rising temperatures, degrading infrastructure, and more severe precipitation may conspire to increase risks to water quality. The impacts could be felt in many sectors, including public health, recreation and tourism, and environmental management.

23 Water Quality Climate Change will increase the risk of many existing water quality and environmental issues. NASA

24 Huron River Watershed Council Issues and Recommendations Need for agility in stormwater management Need for updated and projected data Impervious surfaces and poor land management leads to flashy flows hrwc.org

25 HRWC Strategies Triage: Concentrate on areas where improved management can have the biggest impact. Precautionary Principle: Avoid waiting for greater certainty when the consequences of potential impacts are high. No Regrets: Focus on actions that provide benefits regardless of future climate change.

26 HRWC Solutions Data Needs Improve and update the monitoring and accuracy of rainfall frequency and flow data Consider adoption of additional local, regional practices Priority No-Regrets Actions Implement green infrastructure and design standards More inter-community planning, regional collaboration Education on flooding and mitigation Acquire and manage ecosystems to regulate runoff Monitor weather and surface water conditions

27 Adaptation Solutions: A Tale of Two Cities Grand Rapids Ann Arbor

28 Solutions Permeable pavement Reduces runoff Reduces erosion Reduces risk to water quality Urban tree canopies Save energy: $50000/year Stormwater: $50000/year Scrub greenhouse gases from the atmosphere Ann Arbor is a flagship city for climate adaptation

29

30 Observed Michigan Temperature Changes in Average Temperature ( F) from to Annual 0.9 Winter 1.9 Spring 1.1 Summer 0.5 Fall -0.1

31 Observed Michigan Precipitation Changes in Total Precipitation (%) from to Annual 5.0 Winter 5.6 Spring 1.3 Summer -1.0 Fall 15.8

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