Impact of Sea Level Rise on Future Storm-induced Coastal Inundation

Transcription

1 Impact of Sea Level Rise on Future Storm-induced Coastal Inundation Changsheng Chen School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth 04/14/2015

2 Outline Sources of storm-induced coastal inundation; Observed evidences of sea level rise (SLR) in the New England region; Impacts of SLR on future storm-induced coastal inundation: Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS); Case study 1: Hurricane; Case study 2: Nor easter storms.

3 Super Typhoon Soudelor, August 7, 2015

4 Overwash of a Seawall (Scituate, MA) During January 2015 Storm From Tony Mignone at NOAA

5 Storm-induced Hazards along the New England Coast Hurricanes/ Tropic Storms Coastal Inundation Infrastructure damages Extratropic Storms/Nor easters Human safety Dec. 3, 2015

6 Coastal Inundation Splashing over or overtopping Total water level

7 Future Challenge: Impacts of the Sea Level Rise m 1.2 m Real data IPCC temperature projection for three emission scenarios (B1, A2 and A1F1). Figure is downloaded from Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).

8 Tidal gauge stations Eastpor t Halifax Portland New York New London Montau k Boston Woods Hole Newport Nantucke t

9 Yearly mean elevation (m) Yearly mean elevation (m) Time (year) Year Mean Elevation Projection (m) Year Mean Elevation Projection (m) Boston SLR 0.27 m 0.21 m New York SLR 0.31 m 0.21 m

10 Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Sept Sept Sept. 2012

11 Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) North American Meso-scale (NAM) Weather Model BC s Global-FVCOM tides, currents, T and S) River discharges Groundwater Nested Heat Flux P-E Local Weather Model (WRF) Wind Stress U,V Regional FVCOM (GOM-FVCOM: km) MASS Coastal FVCOM (up to 10 m) Storm Surge (hurricanes, Nor easter) Surface Wave Model (FVCOM-SWAVE) U,V, Waves Langmuir Cells Wind Stress assimilation Inundation Models Satellite SST Buoy Winds Insolation Satellite SST, SSH Buoy or Survey T,S,U,V Scituate, MA Mass Bay/Boston Harbor Hampton River, NH Saco, ME KEY Existing Models Products: Weather: winds, air temperature, air humidity, air pressure, heat flux, E-P Oceans: sea level, currents, T, S, wave heights, wave frequencies, icing Lands: inundation areas NECOFS Data Products

12 Mass-Coastal FVCOM (10 m-5 km) GOM-FVCOM ( km) Global-FVCOM Nested (2-50 km) Nested Nested Nested Nested Scituate, MA (up to 10 m) Boston Harbor, MA (up to 10 m) Hampton, NH (up to 10 m) Saco Bay (up to 10 m)

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14 The August Hurricane Bob

15 Significant wave height

16 Differences (meters) with 0.5 m SLR Significant Wave Height Surface Elevation

17 Inundation in the northern region of Boston Flooded by 0.5-m sea level rise Hurricane-induced flooding

18 Southern Region of Boston Flooded by 0.5-m sea level rise Hurricane-induced flooding

19 The Test Site: Scituate, MA Tide gauge station 44013

20 Barometric pressure Significant wave height Wind vectors at Scituate Harbor (SH) Days (Dec., 2010)

21 Maps of surface wave height (m) and direction (arrows) at Dec GMT

22 SLR: 0.5 m 1.0 m Unit: m

23 SLR: 0.5 m 1.0 m Enlarged by 0.5-m SLR Enlarged by 1.0-m SLR

24 Wave Runup Produced Splashing Discharge 0.61 m 3 /s 0.53 m 3 /s 0.45 m 3 /s ~36 % ~18 % 1.0 m SLR 0.5-m SLR Dec. 27, 2010

25 Summary As a result of the mean sea level rise, for a given same storm as before, the surface wave height could be significant increased, and thus the sea level. We will face a greater threat from the wave runup inundation during hurricanes and nor easter storms.