NORTHEAST COASTAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM (NECOFS)

Transcription

1 NORTHEAST COASTAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM (NECOFS) R. C. Beardsley and C. Chen MITSG Sea Grant College Program Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, Massachusetts NOAA Grant No. NA10OAR Project No R/RC-127 Presented at the annual NERACOOS SPI conference, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI, April 30, 2013.

2 Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) Robert C Beardsley 1 and Changsheng Chen 2 1 Department of Physical Oceanography Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole, MA School for Marine Science and Technology University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth New Bedford, MA NERACOOS SPI 4/30/13, Rhode Island

3 NECOFS is an 24/7 opera;onal integrated atmospheric and oceanic model system designed for: predic;ng the regional weather condi;ons and ocean environments covering regional, coastal, estuarine and wetland scales; warning of coastal flooding on an event ;mescale in order to facilitate evacua;on and other emergency measures to protect human life and property in the coastal zone; accurate es;ma;on of the sta;s;cs of coastal inunda;on in order to enable ra;onale planning regarding sustainable land- use prac;ces in the coastal zone. End users include weather forecasters, emergency management planners and managers, policy- makers and land- use planners in federal, state, and local government agencies and private industry. Program Overview- Goals of NECOFS over the ;me scale of every 3 days. NERACOOS Annual Mee;ng 04/30/2013, Rhode Island

4 Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) Satellite SST Buoy Winds Insola2on Satellite SST, SSH Buoy or Survey T,S,U,V KEY ExisDng Models NECOFS Data Products North American Meso- scale (NAM) Weather Model BC s Global- FVCOM ;des, currents, T and S) Nested Local Weather Model (WRF) Heat Flux Wind Stress P-E U,V Regional FVCOM (GOM- FVCOM: km) Wind Stress Surface Wave Model (FVCOM- SWAVE) assimilation River discharges Groundwater MASS Coastal FVCOM (up to 10 m) U,V, Waves Langmuir Cells assimilation Storm Surge (hurricanes, Nor easter) Scituate Inunda;on Model Hampton River Inunda;on Model Products: Weather: winds, air temperature, air humidity, air pressure, heat flux, E- P Oceans: sea level, currents, T, S, wave heights, wave frequencies, icing Lands: inunda;on areas NERACOOS Annual Mee;ng 4/30/2013 To Be Developed

5 Enlarged view Mass Coastal FVCOM (10 m-5 km) Scituate, MA (up to 10 m) Nested GoM-FVCOM ( km) Nested (2-50 km) Hampton, NH (up to 10 m) Nested Global- FVCOM

6 h]p://porpoise1.smast.umassd.edu:8080/fvcomwms/ 4/30/2013 NERACOOS Annual Mee;ng, Rhode Island

7 1. Efficiency: adding more subdomain Hampton inunda;on models into NECOFS significantly increases a need for computa;onal powers. All inunda;on model is operated with a full coupling of currents and waves. As the ;me step becomes smaller, it takes a significant ;me to run the fully coupled current- wave case. 2. Keeping NECOFS at 24/7 opera;on during serious weather condi;ons. The SMAST/UMASSD is forced to be closed during the hurricane event. One way to solve this problem is to install the emergency power generator, which could ensure the electricity power during the storm event. Major Challenges 4/3/12

8 1. The rescue in Boston Harbor (USCG) in a major SAR case in December, 2012 (Allen Arthur: SECTOR Boston got and used FVCOM Mass Bay yesterday to drie PIWs. When I looked at the currents from your model vs other models the currents around Stellwegen Bank suggest there might have been a eastern or SE drie that was not captured by the other models. So thanks for the offer.) 2. The February Blizzard Forecast (The model- predicted total sea level at 10:00 AM EST on February 9, 2013 for the February 8-9 Blizzard. This predic;on was made on February 7, 2013 and updated on February 8, 2013). 3. The winterdme icing for the New England area (the forecast has been made since 2007 and products are used by the Na;onal Weather Services at Taunton) 4. Hydrological predicdon for rivers along the New England coast (the NECOFS has been used by the NWS at Taunton to drive their hydrological predic;on model). 5. Provide the NOAA super- regional inundadon testbed with an example for inter- model comparisons. Successes Examples 4/30/2013 NERACOOS Annual mee;ng, Rhode Island

9 Next Steps: NECOFS Improvement 1. Nes;ng NECOFS with a global ocean model system (global- FVCOM) to include the impact of the upstream condi;on. Two steps are being doing: a) set up global- FVCOM into the forecast opera;on and b) merge GOM3 (without cut of bathymetry off the shelf break) to global- FVCOM; 2. Modifying GOM3 grid to provide the boundary forcing condi;ons to other coastal ocean models whose domains are covered by NECOFS; 3. Develop Hampton Bay Inunda;on model system nested with GOM3; 4. Update WRF to Advanced Research WRF: WRF (ARW). Now, we test it for Hurricane Bob with an adjustment grid of 3 km. 5. Convert NECOFS to a fully atmospheric and ocean coupled model system. 4/30/2013 NERACOOS Annual Mee;ng, Rhode Island