NWS Operational Marine and Ocean Forecasting. Overview. Ming Ji. Ocean Prediction Center National Weather Service/NCEP. CIOSS/CoRP
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1 NWS Operational Marine and Ocean Forecasting Overview Ming Ji Ocean Prediction Center National Weather Service/NCEP CIOSS/CoRP CoRP Symposium Corvallis, OR Aug , 13, 2008
2 Titanic Telegram
3 Marine Weather Service Users Transoceanic containers Tugs/Barges Sailors Fisherman Tankers USCG 6
4 New container M/V Ital Florida
5 Maritime Safety Systems
6 Areas of NWS Marine Forecast Coverage High Seas Offshore Coastal Great Lakes
7 Marine Weather Service: Who and What Coastal waters & Great Lakes 46 local Weather Forecast Offices (WFO s( WFO s) ) and 5 Weather Service Offices (WSO s( WSO s) Offshore and High seas Anchorage WFO (AR) Honolulu WFO (PR) Ocean Prediction Center (NCEP) Tropical Prediction Center (NCEP) Tropical Storms National Hurricane Center (NCEP/TPC) Central Pacific Hurricane Center (PR)
8 High Seas areas
9 Offshore Marine Zones
10 Coastal areas
11 Model Guidance (Atmosphere) GFS NAM NMM NGM RUC2 NOGAPS ECMWF UKMET CMC JMA Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale (Regional) Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale (Regional) Nested Grid (Regional) Rapid Update Cycle (Regional) U.S. Navy (Global) European Global U. K. Meteorological Office (Global) Canadian (Global and Regional) Japanese (Global)
12 Model Guidance (Ocean & Specialized) GHM HWRF NWW3 FNMOC NCOM HYCOM GFDL Hurricane Model Weather Research and Forecasting (Hurricane) NOAA WaveWatch III WW3 WaveWatch III (U.S. Navy) Navy Coastal Ocean Model (Global) Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model ET-Surge Extratropical Storm Surge (SLOSH)
13 In Situ Observations: NWS Operational Buoys
14 In Situ Observations QC Time scale: real time Domain: global Fields: sea level pressure air temperature wind SST Platforms: ~5000 per synoptic time (~10% flagged) ships 3004 drifting buoys 1890 fixed buoys 250 C-MAN 56
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16 Satellite Observations: Forecaster Applications Determine warning criteria Accurately place surface features Diagnose initial conditions
17 Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclone kts Intense, non-tropical cyclones with hurricane force winds Feb 09, 2007, North Atlantic
18 Extratropical Cyclones with Hurricane Force Winds Detected using QuikSCAT WARNING CATEGORIES Pre- QSCAT GALE kt STORM >48 QSCAT GALE kt STORM kt HURCN FORCE > 64 kt C y c l o n e s Hurricane Force Warning Initiated Dec 00 Detection increased with -Forecaster familiarity -Data availability -Improved resolution Hurricane Force Wind Warning 25 km QuikSCAT Initiated Dec Available 2000 in N-AWIPS Oct 01 QuikSCAT Hurricane Force launch Wind Jun 99 Warning Initiated Dec 00 QuikSCAT winds Operational in N-AWIPS Workstations Oct 01 -Improved algorithm QuikSCAT Launch Jun km km QuikSCAT available Available May May Improved wind Improved algorithm wind and algorithm, rain flag impact Oct flag 06 Available Oct Atlantic Pacific
19 Winds near SST gradients Magnitude of SST gradient GOES SST composite
20 Winds near SST gradients GFS wind speed bias for marginally stable PBL Difference in knots
21 (GOES SST) (OISST) Feature Tracking Boundaries Current Eddies (model verification) (GOES SST w/oisst)
22 POES/GOES SST in the West Atlantic April 28, 2008 GOES SST (24 hr composite) West Atlantic April 28, 2008 OI SST in the West Atlantic April 28, 2008 GOES/POES 1/10 (11 km) resolution Sources GOES-E, GOES-W AVHRR: NOAA-18, MetOp-A MTSAT (future) RTG (as reference field)
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