Outlook 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Kevin Lipton, Ingrid Amberger National Weather Service Albany, New York

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1 Outlook 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Kevin Lipton, Ingrid Amberger National Weather Service Albany, New York

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3 Summary 2007 Hurricane Season Two hurricanes made landfall in the Atlantic Basin at category-5 strength. Hurricane Dean struck the Yucatan Peninsula near Costa Maya on August 21 with 175 mph sustained winds Hurricane Felix then made landfall near Punta Gorda, Nicaragua on September 2 with 160 mph sustained winds Several other tropical storms and hurricanes struck the region around the Caribbean Sea. The United States was struck by one hurricane, Humberto (Category 1), and one tropical storm, Erin.

4 2007 Hurricane Tracks 15 Named / 6 Hurricanes / 2 Major Generally shorted-lived hurricanes Dean (#4), Felix (#6) & Noel (#14) names retired

5 NOAA Predicts Average Season (since 1950): 11 Named Storms 6 Hurricanes 2 Major Hurricanes

6 Hurricane Season North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea & Gulf of Mexico The NOAA Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated seasonal forecast in August just prior to the historical peak of the season.

7 Definitions Tropical Depression: tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 38 mph. Tropical Storm: tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 39 to 73 mph. It is at this point it gets a name. Hurricane: tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 74 mph or greater.

8 Saffir-Simpson Simpson Scale Category 1 = 74 to 95 mph Category 2 = 96 to 110 mph Category 3 = 111 to 130 mph Category 4 = 131 to 155 mph Category 5 = 156+ mph

9 Tropical Cyclone Names

10 Ingredients for Tropical Cyclone Development Pre-existing existing surface disturbance with thunderstorms Ocean temperatures of at least 79F Atmospheric moisture Relatively light winds aloft (low vertical wind shear) NOAA Formation north of approximately 5 N

11 Vertical Wind Shear NOAA Directional wind shear is the change in wind direction with height NOAA Speed shear is the change in wind speed with height

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13 Main Factors Positive Multi-Decadal Signal - the combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995 Anticipated lingering effects of La Niña resulting in a decrease in vertical wind shear Continuation (since 1995) of warmer-than than- normal temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic

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16 Global SST Departures ( o C) Equatorial SSTs remained below average across the central Pacific Ocean, and above average in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean. A horseshoe-shaped pattern of positive anomalies spanned the Pacific Ocean of both hemispheres. Positive anomalies covered much of the North Atlantic Ocean, while negative anomalies extended along the west coast of North America into the Gulf of Alaska.

17 Pacific Niño o 3.4 SST Outlook A majority of ENSO forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions during the last half of Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 19 May 2008).

18 SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 9 June 2008 The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts ENSO-neutral conditions by June 2008 followed by warmer-than-average conditions during the last half of 2008.

19 Summary Near-Normal Normal to Above-Normal Season Positive Multi-Decadal Signal Anticipated lingering effects of La Niña Warmer-than than-normal normal temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic

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21 Tropical Cyclone Discussion - TCD Can give insight into forecaster confidence in track and/or intensity

22 Tropical Cyclone Discussion Hurricane Dean - August 16, 2007

23 Tropical Cyclone Discussion Hurricane Katrina - August 26, 2005

24 Operational Changes What s new for 2008?

25 Tropical Cyclone Products Previously... Red: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch/Warning Blue: Inland Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch/Warning Green: High Wind Watch/Warning Wind Advisory

26 Previously Tropical Cyclone Products issued for NWS Albany forecast area... Berkshire/Litchfield Counties Inland Tropical Storm Watch/Warning (NPW) Inland Hurricane Watch/Warning (NPW) Other Counties High Wind Watch/Warning (NPW) Wind Advisory (NPW)

27 Tropical Cyclone Products New for 2008 Season Red: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch/Warning Blue: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Wind Watch/Warning Green: High Wind Watch/Warning Wind Advisory

28 New for 2008 Tropical Cyclone Products issued for NWS Albany forecast area... Berkshire/Litchfield Counties Tropical Storm Wind Watch/Warning (HLS) Hurricane Wind Watch/Warning (HLS) Other Counties Some flexibility to issue HLS product for NY counties. Would most likely issue only for southern tier Ulster/Dutchess Otherwise... High Wind Watch/Warning (NPW) Wind Advisory (NPW)

29 Tropical Storm Wind Watch/Warning Hurricane Wind Watch/Warning Issued when a tropical cyclone (tropical storm or hurricane) is expected to spread tropical storm or hurricane force winds inland.

30 Issuance Criteria A Tropical Cyclone Wind Watch or Warning will be issued when the following criteria are met: Watch - when tropical storm/hurricane force winds are possible within the watch area within 36 hours. Warning - when tropical storm/hurricane force winds are expected within the warning area within 24 hours.

31 Post-Tropical Cyclone Reports (PSH) The PSH is the primary Weather Forecast Office post tropical cyclone product issued to the public to report and document local tropical cyclone impacts. Issued if HLS is issued. The PSH provides the NHC, NWS Headquarters, media, public and emergency management officials with a record of peak tropical cyclone conditions. This data are then used to formulate other post-event reports, news articles and historical records. PSH transmitted within 5 days following the transmission of the last HLS or Tropical Storm/Hurricane Wind watches or warnings.

32 Web Sites Go to any National Weather Service Forecast Office: National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center:

33 Contacts Warning Coordination Meteorologist: Meteorologist (Hurricane Focal Point): Meteorologist:

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