Moving to a simpler NCEP production suite

Transcription

1 Moving to a simpler NCEP production suite Unified coupled global modeling Hendrik L. Tolman Director, Environmental Modeling Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP Hendrik.Tolman@NOAA.gov page 1 of 14

2 Content The suite in 2 minutes Emerging requirements Forces driving unification of the model suite UMAC (UCACN model advisory committee) NGGPS (Next Generation Global Prediction System) Focus on global part of unified modeling approach Unified Global Coupled Model Dynamic cores Physics Data Assimilation page 2 of 14

3 Seamless Suite, spanning weather and climate Outlook Seasons Years Forecast Uncertainty Guidance Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Forecast Lead Time Hours Minutes Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Climate Forecast System North American Ensemble Forecast System Global Ensemble Forecast System Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Mesoscale Waves Global Ocean Bays Fire Wx Regional Hurricane Space Weather Storm Surge (HWRF & GFDL) Rapid Refresh Air Quality Dispersion (smoke) Global Dust Wave Ensemble Benefits Tsunami Whole Atmosphere HRRR NMME NLDAS page 3 of 14

4 3D- VAR DA Climate Forecast System (CFS) GFS, MOM4, NOAH, Sea Ice 3D- VAR DA Regional Hurricane GFDL WRF- NMM Waves WAVEWATCH III Ocean HYCOM SURGE SLOSH P- SURGE SLOSH Ecosystem EwE 3D- En- Var DA Global Forecast System (GFS) Global Spectral NOAH Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) 21 GFS Members North American Ensemble Forecast System GEFS, Canadian Global Model 3D- VAR DA Regional NAM NMMB NOAH Short- Range Ensemble Forecast WRF(ARW, NMM) NMMB High Res Windows WRF(ARW, NMM) & NMMB ESTOFS ADCIRC 3D- VAR DA Dispersion HYSPLIT Air Quality CMAQ Regional Bays Great Lakes (POM) N Gulf of Mexico (FVCOM) Columbia R. (SELFE) Chesapeake (ROMS) Tampa (ROMS) Delaware (ROMS) Rapid Refresh WRF ARW North American Land Surface Data AssimilaTon System NOAH Land Surface Model NEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC) GFS & GOCART Space Weather ENLIL 3D- VAR DA High ResoluTon RR WRF ARW Production suite ca. January 2014 page 4 of 14

5 Emerging requirements Weather Ready Nation. Products. Social science. High impact events. Weather to climate seamless suite of guidance and products. Week 3-4. Systematic reforecast need. Range of products beyond weather: Space weather, land, ice, ocean, waves, aerosols, (ecosystems). Individual products versus coupled modeling. Water cycle, National Water Center (NWC). page 5 of 14

6 UMAC UCACN Model Advisory Board Review production suite (August 2015) Strategic level. Team from academia, stakeholders / contributors heard, but not on the panel itself. Some key findings: Simplify / unify model suite. Lack of requirements process. Better process to identify development paths. end-to-end management of implementations. Evidence driven decision. No more jigsaw puzzle. page 6 of 14

7 NGGPS (Next Generation Global Prediction System) NWS R2O funding and NGGPS projects. For first time NWS is funding agency. Fund gaps in operations. Project based funding for strategic development. Within US government. Academia, with NWS partners / champions. Test beds for R2O. Key element: Next Generation Global Prediction System. Next generation Dycore Selection. Unified physics interface, focus on physics. Model Coupling Started with Climate Forecast System Arctic modeling page 7 of 14

8 Unified Global Model Whole Atmosphere Model NGGPS Unified Global Coupled Model GFS GEFS CFS Actionable weather Week 1 through 4-6 Seasonal & annual Application = Ensemble + Reanalysis + Reforecast 1 y 2 y 4 y Update cycle 3 y y present Reanalysis 6h 6-24h??? cycling WCOSS WCOSS WCOSS? where page 8 of 14

9 NGGPS and NEMS / ESMF Modular modeling, using ESMF to modularize elements in fully coupled unified global model ( + ionosphere, ecosystems, ) page 9 of 14

10 NGGPS dycore Selecting a new dynamic core for global model to serve the NWS for the coming decades. Architecture suitable for future compute environments. Non-hydrostatic to allow for future convection-resolving global models. 18 month process to down-select candidate cores. 5 year plan to replace operations. Core à NEMS à applications. GSM-NH (EMC) MPAS (NCAR) FV3 (GFDL) NIM (ESRL) NEPTUNE (NRL) NMMB-UJ (EMC) page 10 of 14

11 NGGPS physics standard interface for model physics Ini;alize Physics Tables and Databases Init Mode Atmosphere Model including Dynamics Dynamical equa;ons, advec;on, horizontal mixing, diffusion. Radia;on Δt, u, v, w, T, θ, p, z, q x, c x, a x destaggered Atmospheric Physics Driver (init, run, finalize modes) Modified Kalnay Rules Layer Deep and Shallow Cumulus Surface Layer PBL and Ver;cal Mixing Tendencies and Updates NUOPC Physics Driver Schematic Micro- physics Finalize Mode. Output Diagnos;cs fields rates budgets others Version 1.0 delivered June 2015 page 11 of 14

12 COUPLED DA PROOF OF CONCEPT Atmosphere: Hybrid 4D-EnVAR approach using a 80- member coupled forecast and analysis ensemble, with Semi-lagrangian dynamics, and 128 levels in the vertical hybrid sigma/pressure coordinates. Ocean/Seaice: GFDL MOM5.1/MOM6-SIS and/or HYCOM- CICE for the ocean and sea-ice coupling, using the NEMS coupler. Aerosols: Inline GOCART for aerosol coupling. Waves: Inline WAVEWATCH III for wave coupling. Land: Inline Noah Land Model for land coupling. page 12 of 14

13 NCEP Coupled Hybrid Data Assimilation and Forecast System NEMS NEMS OCEAN SEA-ICE WAVE LAND AERO ATMOS ATMOS AERO LAND WAVE SEA-ICE OCEAN Coupled Model Ensemble Forecast Coupled Model Ensemble Forecast Coupled Ensemble Forecast (N members) Ensemble Analysis (N Members) INPUT OUTPUT page 13 of 14

14 page 14 of 14