Long range dust transport and its impact on US air quality
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1 Long range dust transport and its impact on US air quality Sarah Lu 1, Youhua Tang 1, Ho Chun Huang 1, Jeff McQueen 1, Arlindo da Silva 2, Mian Chin 2, Marina Tsidulko 1, Jianping Huang 1 1 : NOAA NCEP 2: NASA GSFC
2 NCEP Global Aerosol Forecast Capability NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC, NCEP s global in line aerosol system) NCEP s NEMS/GFS and GSFC s GOCART are interactively connected using Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) coupler components The NGAC has the capability to forecast dust, sulfate, sea salt, and carbonaceous aerosols In line chemistry advantage Consistent: No spatial temporal interpolation, same physics parameterization Efficient: Lower overall CPU costs and easier data management Allows for feedback to meteorology Outcome of the in line aerosol system Prototype system for NEMS Chem Ash Enable NCEP to produce global short range chemical weather forecasts Provide lateral aerosol boundary conditions for regional air quality forecast system Create aerosol information needed for atmospheric correction in satellite retrievals Provide a first step toward an aerosol data assimilation capability Allow NCEP to explore aerosol chemistry climate in the climate system
3 NCEP Global Aerosol Forecast Capability Current State Near real time experimental system 120 hr dust only forecast once per day (00Z), output every 3 hr ICs: Aerosols from previous day forecast and meteorology from operational GDAS Operational Implementation targeted for March 2012 Experimental (non operational) Future Plans Refine the prototype volcanic ash capability Use near real time smoke emission from satellites Plan toward full package implementation (dust, sea salt, sulfate, and carbonaceous aerosols) Provide aerosol information for potential downstream users (e.g., NESDIS s SST retrievals, CPC EPA UV index forecasts; aerosol lateral boundary conditions for NAM CMAQ) Issues and Challenges Resources Need of aerosol vertical profiles and speciation observations
4 AOD from NGAC forecasts versus in situ observations (AERONET) and satellite measurements (MODIS) at Key Biscayne and Izana Key Biscayne AERONET Izana MODIS NGAC dust AOD We thank Philippe Goloub and Kenneth Voss for the efforts in establishing and maintaining Izana and Key Biscayne site, respectively Coutersy of Luke Jones of ECMWF
5 Long range dust transport (for July 2010) T126 L64 NGAC MODIS onboard Terra, from Giovanni online data system (developed and maintained by NASA DISC)
6 Year to year variability (2010 versus 2011) Evident trans Atlantic dust transport for 2010/2011 Weaker long range transport of Asian dust to the US west coast for 2011
7 NEWS CHANNEL WPTV (07/15/2010) Dust in the wind hazy sky over South Florida Saharan dust brings hazy conditions Saharan dust reported by local newspapers.. Palm Beach Daily News (07/15/2010) Saharan air mass to dust South Florida this weekend TCPALM, Florida s Treasure Coast and Palm Beaches (07/16/2010) Saharan dust may be noticed over South Florida this weekend StormVisuals (07/19/2010) Saharan air layer dust enhances Florida sunsets
8 NAM CMAQ Configuration Emissions: EPA CEM anthropogenic inventories 2005 base year projected to current year w/ EGU BEIS V3 Biogenic Emissions Met Model: NCEP North American Model (NAM) Non hydrostatic Multi scale Model (NMM NMMB) 12 km 60 Levels AQ Model: EPA/NOAA Community Model For Air Quality CMAQ V4.6: 12 km/l22 CONUS Domain Operational: CB04 gas phase Experimental:CB05 gas phase/aero 4 aerosols
9 Dust intrusion event (July 18 25, 2010) Dust influx at CMAQ boundaries
10 NAM CMAQ simulations using LBCs from NGAC Baseline CMAQ with static LBCs versus experimental CMAQ with dynamic LBCs from NGAC, verified against AIRNOW PM observations Note: The baseline NAM CMAQ PM forecasts are not yet operational (developmental testing).
11
12 Monthly averaged dust influx at NAM CMAQ boundaries from NGAC simulations for 2010 July
13 Statistic results of the NAM CMAQ compared to AIRNOW PM2.5 CMAQ Baseline CMAQ Experimental Whole domain July 1 Aug 3 South of 38 N, East of 105 W July 1 Aug 3 Whole domain July 18 July 30 South of 38 N, East of 105 W July 18 July 30 MB= 2.82 Y= *X R=0.42 MB= 4.54 Y= *X R=0.37 MB= 2.79 Y= *X R=0.31 MB= 4.79 Y= *X R=0.27 MB= 0.88 Y= *X R=0.44 MB= 1.76 Y= *X R=0.41 MB= 0.33 Y= *X R=0.37 MB= 0.46 Y= *X R=0.41
14 In Conclusion NCEP has adopted NASA GOCART model in NEMS GFS for global aerosol modeling. The NEMS now has the capability to forecast dust, sulfate, sea salt, and carbonaceous aerosols. Dust simulations from NGAC (the in line GFS GOCART system) are used as lateral dust BCs for CMAQ NAM (an experimental configuration). The inclusion of LBCs from global model prediction is found to improve PM forecasts (e.g., reduced mean biases).
15 Thank you
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