Recent Performance of the NOAA Air Quality Forecasting Capability and the Impact of Driving Meteorology
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1 Recent Performance of the NOAA Air Quality Forecasting Capability and the Impact of Driving Meteorology Jeff McQueen, Jianping Huang, Ho-Chun Huang, Perry Shafran NCEP/EMC Amanda Sleinkofer Millersville University Pius Lee, Li Pan, Daniel Tong NOAA/ARL Ivanka Stajner, Sikchya Upadhaya NWS/STI October 25,
2 Meteorological processes influencing air quality Coastal sea/bay breeze flows Complex topographical processes mountain/valley flows; trapping, cold pools Urban meteorology urban boundary layer, in canyon, skim flows Land surface/air-surface exchange Deposition, biogenic emissions Aerosol interactive radiative/cloud microphysical processes Clouds and aqueous phase chemistry, wet deposition Vertical mixing esp in stable boundary layers 2
3 NAM Forecast System - Version 4 (March 2017) Resolution Changes CONUS (4 km) and Alaska (6 km) nests 3 km Sync AK and CONUS On-Demand Fire Weather nests 1.5 km Select Model Changes Updated microphysics Improved stratiform precip Reduce incoming SW Rad under clouds: reduce warm season 2-m T warm bias More frequent calls to physics Physics/dynamics more in sync Improve effect of frozen soil on transpiration and soil evaporation Improve cold season 2-m T/Td biases Adjustment to convection in 12 km NAM Modify latent heat flux treatment Improve visibility along CA coast Data Assimilation DA cycles for 3 km nests Much less spin-up time Use of Lightning/Radar Refectivity-derived temperature tendencies Improved short-term forecasts of storms at 3 km New satellite radiances, satellite winds DA 3 km 1.5 km 12 km DA DA: Data Assimilation Cycle Courtesy Eric Rogers, EMC 3
4 NAM March 21, 2017 Upgrade WEST EAST 2 m Temperature NAM - CMAQ V4.7 NAM-V4 - CMAQ V4.7 4
5 July 2016 NRT CMAQ Prod vs V h avg Diurnal Ozone WEST EAST CMAQ V5.0.2 NAM-V4: improvement in ozone over-prediction over the East West CMAQ V5.0.2 NAM-V4: Strongest underestimate over West Meteorological impact nearly as large as CMAQ/Emissions upgrade 5
6 Ozone Errors: July 2017 Obs vs Raw vs Bias Corrected EAST NORTHEAST WEST East : Overprediction overall but underprediction for July exceedences West: Continued underprediction O3 BIAS CORRECTION: Diurnal performance good, overcorrects some events (July 10-12, 18-21) 6 Jianping Huang, NCEP
7 NE 25-48h T/Td Bias NE U.S. July 10-16, 2017 Temperature Dew Point Cool, moist biases on 11 th and 12 th coincides with ozone underprediction 7
8 July 12, 2017 NAM-CMAQ V5 Performance CMAQ 8h Ozone Max: Day 2 CMAQ 8h Ozone Max: Day 1 8h Ozone Max: Day 1 Mdl-Obs Bias Corrected 8h Ozone Max: Day 2 - Continued less ozone predicted for day 2 - O3 Bias correction.improved over LI
9 July 12, 2017 NAM-CMAQ V5 Performance NE U.S. NAM,Nest, CMAQ 7/11/ 12Z 33 h Cloud Cover - NAM-12 cloud cover too high and extent too broad, CMAQ less - NAM nest captures clearing along LIS and CT better NAM Nest derived cloud cover NAM derived cloud cover CMAQ derived cloud cover
10 July 12, 2017 NAM-CMAQ V5 Performance NE U.S. NAM vs Nest 7/11/ 12Z 33 h forecast 2m temperature, PBLH NAM 2 m Temperature NAM PBLH NAM: Temps too cool over CT coast, Nest better
11 PBLH Evaluation June 13, 2017, 21 UTC PBLH 1 hr ozone NEST 3km Winds coming from the bay brought the marine air inland The NAM NEST 3km tended to bring the MBL further inland in the northern Chesapeake bay area, especially north of Baltimore NAM-12 Courtesy: Amanda Sleinkofer 11A
12 NAM-12 vs NAM-3 km nest vs Howard U Beltsville, Maryland Lufft Ceilometer PBLH (June 13, 2017) Day 1 (solid) & Day 2 (dashed) forecasts 12
13 August 2017 PM Predictions 1 h avg PM BIAS West V5.0.2 Analogs WEST: Underpredict PM transitions to overprediction. Bias Correction w/ V5. analogs better than oper BC - More consistent smoke event analogs? 13
14 Northern California Fires October 13, 2017 PM 2.5 predictions Day 1 Day 2 14
15 Summary V5.0.2 Ozone w/ NAM V4 Improvement correcting over-prediction esp along coasts Long Island Sound (CT DEP analysis), Lake Erie/Michigan and Ohio Coastline Improved for marginal or non-events Still Missed exceedences in NE with overprediction of cloudiness Remarkable overall improvement with KFAN ozone bias correction but overcorrects for episodes in East PM Large positive impact near forest fires : Updated BlueSky and 24 h pre analysis run Underprediction when external sources (Canadian fires) are impacting CONUS Emission timing and ejection height uncertainties Continued overprediction in Winter from raw predictions Exp PM bias correction w/ V5 analogs improves performance (Summer) Normally Updated NAM alone improves ozone overprediction forecast Amount of incoming radiation under clouds critical 15
16 Future Emphasis Extend to 72 hours, update emissions to 2014 base Near real-time fire locations, strength, emissions Canadian & external source impacts (testing) Improved temporal profiles (testing) and plume rise algorithms NGAC full aerosol boundaries Unification of AQ systems HYSPLIT smoke/dust NGAC Aerosol CMAQ ozone & total PM HRRR-smoke Bias Correction: Implement Ozone Kalman Filter bias correction (testing) PM: Use CMAQ V5 predictions as analogs (testing) Improved Evaluations Use of VIIRS/GOES-16/AERONET AOD, CALIPSO aerosols NGGPS ESRL/EPA FV3-CMAQ - Inline allows for High Resolution Evaluate Operational models for field experiments (ESRL FireX 2019, FASMEE) 16
17 Thunderstorm-resolving resolution in a unified meso-global prediction system (FV3-GFS) 1) Grid stretching (smooth variation of grid spacing) 1) 2-way nesting (Harris and Lin 2014) FV3 is uniquely suitable for 2-way nesting, due to the application of two-time-level Finite-Volume transport scheme 2) Optimal combination of the stretching and nesting FV3-GFS FY19 Global : 9 km L64 Regional: 3km nest or stand alone aerosol aware microphysics/radiation option (red) S.J. Lin, NOAA/GFDL
18 GFS-FV3 Comparisons (13 km) June- July 2017 Day1 2 m Temperature Cloud cover GFS-FV3 too warm and under-predicts clouds over North America 18
19 BACKUPS BACKUPS 19
20 Web pages CMAQ V5.0.2 Real-time parallel runs (July 2016-Present No NOx adj/nam-x/4x-day cycling (Aug. 7-Sept 10) Gridpoint NOx adj/nam-x/1x-day cycling (Aug. 1-Sept 10) Verification statistics (prod,para, cmaqnox11, cmaqnox) 25
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