Global Change and Air Pollution (EPA-STAR GCAP) Daniel J. Jacob
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1 Global Change and Air Pollution (EPA-STAR GCAP) and some more recent work on climate-aq interactions Daniel J. Jacob with Eric M. Leibensperger, Shiliang Wu, Amos Tai, and Loretta J. Mickley and GCAP Co-Is John H. Seinfeld (Caltech), David Rind (NASA GISS), David G. Streets (ANL), Daewon Byun (U. Houston), Joshua Fu (U. Tenn.) 1
2 A simple syllogism: Climate is the statistics of weather Weather affects air quality Climate change affects air quality 2
3 Effect of climate change on air quality Expected effect of 21 st -century climate change Observed dependences on meteorological variables (polluted air) Ozone PM Stagnation???? Temperature Mixing depth = Precipitation Cloud cover = Relative humidity = Climate change is expected to degrade ozone air quality; effect on PM uncertain 3 Jacob and Winner [2009]
4 IPCC projections of 21 st -century climate change in N. America Surface temperature L Precipitation vs changes for ensemble of 21 general circulation models (GCMs) in A1B scenario Increasing temperature everywhere, largest at high latitudes Frequency of heat waves expected to increase Increasing precipitation at high latitudes, decrease in subtropics but with large uncertainty Decrease in meridional temperature gradient expected to weaken winds, decrease frequency of mid-latitude cyclones and associated cold fronts 4 IPCC [2007]
5 Importance of mid-latitudes cyclones for ventilation of eastern US Cold fronts associated with cyclones tracking across southern Canada are the principal ventilation mechanism for the Midwest and East The frequency of these cyclones has decreased d in past 50 years, likely l due to greenhouse warming 5 Leibensperger et al. [2008]
6 Observed trends of ozone pollution and cyclones in Northeast US # ozone episode days (O 3 >80 ppb) and # cyclones tracking across SE Canada in summer observations # cyclones # ozone episodes Cyclone frequency is predictor of interannual pollution variability Observed decrease in cyclone frequency would imply a corresponding degradation of air quality if emissions had remained constant Expected # of 80 ppb exceedance days for Northeast average ozone dropped from 30 in 1980 to 10 in 2006, but would have dropped to zero in absence of cyclone trend This demonstrates impact of climate change on AQ policy over decadal scale 6 Leibensperger et al. [2008]
7 GCM-CTM approach to quantify effects of climate change on air quality Socioeconomic emission scenario ozone-pm precursor emissions greenhouse gas emissions Global climate model (GCM) input meteorology boundary conditions Global chemical transport model (CTM) Regional climate model (RCM) boundary conditions Regional CTM for ozone-pm AQ input meteorology Computationally expensive machinery, need a number of simulation years for robust statistics Five projects funded by EPA-STAR using different GCM-CTMs 7 Jacob and Winner [2009]
8 Ensemble model analysis of the effect of climate change on ozone air quality in the US ppb Results from six coupled GCM-CTM simulations change of 8-h MDA8 daily max ozone in summer, keeping anthropogenic emissions constant Northeast NE Midwest MW California CA Texas TX Southeast SE Harvard.A1B CMU.A2 PGR.B1 NERL.A1B WSU.A2 PGR.A1Fi Models show consistent projection of ozone increase over most of US Typical mean increase is 1-4 ppb, up to 10 ppb for ozone pollution episodes Increase is largest in urban areas with high ozone 8 Weaver et al. [2010]
9 Climate change penalty: meeting a given ozone air quality goal will require larger emission reductions in future climate 2000 conditions NOx emission - 40% (2050 climate) Simulated pdf of daily max O 3 over Midwest US in summer (GISS GCM + GEOS-Chem CTM) NOx emission - 40% (2000 climate) Wu et al. [2008a] NOx emissions - 50% (2050 climate) In this example, climate change implies an additional 25% reduction in NO x emissions (from 40% to 50%) to achieve the same ozone air quality. 9
10 Effect of climate change on background ozone Background ozone is defined as the surface air concentration in absence of North American anthropogenic emissions background ozone (ppb) (2000 emissions & 2050 climate) GISS GCM + GEOS-Chem CTM (2050 emissions & 2000 climate) (2050 emissions & climate) Jun-Aug 1-5 pm 2050 emissions increase background due to rising methane, Asian sources 2050 climate decreases background due to higher water vapor, except in inner West due to subsidence and drying The two effects cancel in the East; residual increase in intermountain West 10 [Wu et al., 2008b]
11 Reducing emissions reduces climate change penalty and can turn it into a climate benefit Change in mean ozone 8-h daily from max ozone 2050 (ppb) climate from change climate change GISS GCM + GEOS-Chem CTM with 2000 emissions with 2050 emissions Mean Jun-Aug 8-h daily max A Reducing warmer climate U.S. anthropogenic will make ozone emissions pollution significantly worse but mitigates ozone background better! This the climate result is change very consistent penalty across models 11 Wu et al. [2008a]
12 Effect of climate change on annual mean PM 2.5 Different models show ± μg m -3 effects of climate change on PM 2.5 with no consistency across models including in the sign of the effect GISS GCM + GEOS-Chem CTM 2000 emissions 2050 emissions CMAQ model nested in GEOS-Chem PM 2.5 (μg m -3 ) Midwest Northeast Southeast 2000 emissions emissions Decrease of SO 2 emissions improves climate effect on PM by changing g speciation from sulfate to nitrate 12 Pye et al. [2009]; Lam et al. [2010]
13 GCM uncertainty in simulating regional climate change limits ability of GCM-CTMs to project changes in PM 2.5 probability Single 10-year realization from single GCM Ensemble of 10-year realizations from single GCM Ensemble of 10-year realizations from multiple GCMs Change in meteorological variable X, vs Standard IPCC approach is to use multi-gcm ensemble statistics to diagnose regional climate change and corresponding confidence intervals BUT all GCM-CTM studies of ozone and PM 2.5 so far have used a single realization from a single GCM OK for ozone (qualitatively) because of dominant dependence on temperature Not OK for PM 2.5 because dependence on meteorological variables is far more complicated 13
14 Correlation of PM 2.5 components with temperature Deseasonalized annual data Simulated direct dependence: GEOS-Chem +1K perturbation Coefficient i from multivariate i t regression GEOS-Chem EPA-AQS observations Sulfate Nitrate OC Correlations with T reflect direct dependences for nitrate (volatilization) and OC (vegetation, fires) but also indirect associations with transport 14 Tai et al. [2012]
15 Dominant meteorological modes for PM 2.5 variability in US Principal component (PC) analysis of nine meteorological variables by region, and correlation of PM 2.5 with the corresponding PC modes Midwest US: day-to-day variability cyclone mode PM 2.5 Interannual variability January 2006 cyclone passages (cold fronts) Midwest US: interannual variability period of cyclone mode Transport modes for PM 2.5 variability annual PM East, Midwest: fronts 2.5 West Coast: marine inflow 15 Tai et al. [2012, in prep]
16 Interannual dependence of annual PM 2.5 on period of dominant meteorological mode of variability Climatological observations of dpm 2.5 /d ( ) Projected change in, (fifteen IPCC AR4 GCMs) Resulting change in PM 2.5, Tai et al. [in prep]
17 Variability across 15 IPCC GCMs in annual PM 2.5 response to change in meteorological transport modes Symbols are inividual GCMs; statistics use reality ensemble average (REA) Statistically significant increases of ~0.1 µg m -3 in East and Midwest, decrease of ~0.2 µg m -3 in Pacific NW 17
18 PM 2.5, µg m Overall assessment of response of annual PM 2.5 to climate change West OC+BC Fires +BC [Spracklen et al.,2009; Yue et al., 2012] Southeast nitrate East, Midwest all all Northwest all Transport [Tai et al., in prep] East OC Vegetation [Heald et al., 2008] Midwest, West OC Land cover [Wu et al., 2012] -0.5 Temperature [Pye et al., 2009; Tai et al., 2012] Overall effect of climate change on annual PM 2.5 unlikely to exceed 0.5 µg m -3 Impact of western fires on daily PM 2.5 may be the most important issue 18
19 Climate response to change in US PM sources PM radiative forcing in 2000 from US anthropogenic sources GEOS-Chem+GISS trend over eastern US global radiative forcing from CO 2 Forcing is mostly from sulfate, peaked in Forcing from OC is very uncertain Little leverage to be had from BC control Indirect (cloud) forcing is of similar magnitude to direct forcing Direct 19 Leibensperger et al., [2012a]
20 Cooling from US anthropogenic PM (1980) From difference of GISS GCM simulations with vs. without US aerosol sources (GEOS-Chem), and including direct and cloud (albedo and lifetime) effects Five-member realizations of statistics; dots indicate statistical significance SURFACE Surface cooling (up to 1 o C) is strongly localized over eastern US Cooling at 500 hpa (5 km) is more diffuse because of heat transport 500 hpa 20 Leibensperger et al. [2012b]
21 Observed warming hole over eastern US o C Surface temperature trend, contiguous US US has warmed faster than global mean, as expected in general for mid-latitudes land But there has been no warming between 1930 and 1980, followed by sharp warming after 1980 Spatial distribution of trend warming hole over eastern US 21 GISTEMP [2010]
22 surface temperature trend in eastern US trend Leibensperger et al. [2012b] Observations (GISTEMP) Model with US anthropogenic PM sources Model without US anthropogenic PM sources US anthropogenic PM sources can explain the warming hole Rapid warming has taken place since 1990s that we attribute to PM reduction 22 Most of the warming from PM source reduction will have been realized by 2020
23 Air Quality Applied Sciences Team (AQAST) EARTH SCIENCE SERVING AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT NEEDS Earth science resources satellites suborbital platforms models AQAST Air Quality Management Needs Pollution monitoring Exposure assessment AQ forecasting Source attribution of events Quantifying emissions Assessment of natural and international influences Understanding of transport, chemistry, aerosol processes Understanding of climate-aq interactions For more information on how AQAST can help you please ask me! 23
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