Presentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Presentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?"

Transcription

1 Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation Overview The global climate system An overview of Arizona climate Why so much variability? Climate change and Arizona What is climate? Climatology: analysis of long-term weather patterns over time or space The frequency of extreme events also important in climatic analyses (e.g. droughts & floods) Mean conditions AND variability From: Global Energy Balance From Global Circulations: Flows of Mass & Energy Atmosphere Ocean From From 1

2 Annual Average Arizona Temperatures Background on AZ Climate Annual Average Arizona Precipitation Arizona Climograph precip (in.) 1 4 temp (F).5 2 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Precip (in.) Temp (F) Jan Dec 3 in. Seasonal Distribution of Precipitation More winter precip in northern AZ Stronger monsoon signal in southeast AZ (more summer precip) Annual Average Arizona Potential Evapotranspiration (graphic from Sheppard, et al. 2) Mean Annual Precip (in.) Annual Avg. Temp (F) 2

3 Average Daily Observations: Coolidge-AZMET.5 1 Long-term Precipitation Daily averages based Variability on period Annual Avg. Total Precip: 7.4 in. Annual Avg. Total ET: 77.6 in.45 9 Example Water Balance: Walnut Gulch, Arizona inches deg F Day of Year Ref ET (in) Total Precip (in) Avg Temp (F) Precipitation: Upper Gila Annual Total Precipitation Upper Gila Summer Total Precipitation Upper Gila Winter Total Precipitation 3

4 Bowie, AZ - NWS Coop Daily Precip Analysis Precip (in) /26/212 Total precip by season Year Bowie, AZ - NWS Coop Daily Precip Analysis San Simon Watershed OND JAS AMJ JFM Days Days Total Wet Days (precip>.4) per year Total Wet Days (precip>.4) per season JFM AMJ JAS OND Historic Streamflows Southern AZ Upper Gila Avg. Annual Temperature From USGS, Atmospheric Circulation and Arizona Climate Atmospheric Controls on Arizona Climate Large-scale circulation patterns are an important determinant of local climate Arizona has a unique geographic position in northern hemisphere Circulation patterns are tied to global ocean sea surface temperatures Patterns can persist for years and even decades 4

5 Seasonality of Circulation Patterns Global Circulations and Aridity Winter Circulation Pattern Summer Circulation Pattern MOIST AIR DRY AIR H L Shift of jet stream track towards Arizona H DRY AIR H MOIST AIR Monsoon circulation Weak flow around expanded Bermuda sub-tropical high-pressure system H Monsoon North American Monsoon Monsoon start dates for Tucson Average start July 3 rd Earliest start June 17 2 Latest start July Monsoon season rainfall (June 15th to September 3th) Average monsoon season rainfall 6.6 Driest monsoon season 1.59 in 1924 Wettest monsoon season in

6 Upper Level Flow - May Upper Level Flow - June Upper Level Flow - July CA westerly wind NV UT CO Four Corners High Pressure NE KS CO. River Valley Thermal Low AZ NM TX Mid-level moisture from Gulf of Mexico TX Low-level moisture from Gulf of California Core Monsoon Area (abundant tropical moisture, frequent thunderstorm activity) PACIFIC OCEAN GULF OF MEXICO Conceptual diagram of key circulation features of the North American Monsoon System Mexico easterly wind El Nino Southern Oscillation Interannual Climate Variability 6

7 Dominant Circulation Pattern: La Nina Winter Dominant Circulation Pattern: El Nino Winter Arizona Drought Arizona ENSO Connection Pacific Decadal Oscillation Warm Cool Period North Pacific SSTs Southwest Winters 192s-194s Cold Wetter 194s-197s Warm Drier 197s-2?? Cold Wetter 2??-???? Warm Drier? Surf. Pressure Anomaly PDO index (from Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Nov-Mar) (from Pagano 1999) Climate Change Trends and patterns in temp IPCC 27 7

8 Trends in Nov-Mar Snowfall Fraction Observed U.S. Climatic Trends More Rain, Less Snow More Snow, Less Rain Courtesy of Noah Knowles, USGS Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 25 What is going on and why? Dev= Changes in greenhouse gases over the past 1, years IPCC 27 From 8

9 Climate Change Attribution Natural vs. Anthropogenic Forcings Observed Earth is now radiating.85 W/m 2 less energy than it is receiving Imbalance and associated warming are consistent with GHG forcings Components of natural variability (e.g. solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols) are small More warming in the pipeline Natural Only Hansen et al. 25 Stott et al. (2) Precipitation Sensitivity to Warming Temperatures Where are we headed? Solomon et al. 29 Temp Projections for Arizona Increasing Temps=Increasing Aridity? IPCC-AR4 18 model ensemble output Courtesy of Jon Eischeid and Marty Hoerling, NOAA Hoerling & Eischeid 27 9

10 Implications for Arizona Higher temperatures Higher evaporation and transpiration rates (increased water loss in reservoirs, faster drying of soils following precip events, more stress on vegetation) Less snow/more rain in winter; less snowpack for spring runoff, earlier pulse of precip/less water available in summer Longer growing seasons; more extreme events Precipitation Projections are lower confidence Higher temperatures on same precipitation variability: more intense drought periods Increasing variability more flooding with intervening drought periods Closing Points Elevation, latitude, and ocean sea-surface temperatures create a complex Arizona climate Different mechanisms create summer versus winter precipitation Lots of opportunity for variability (spatially and temporally) Climate change is real and a reason for concern in Arizona Resources Climate Assessment for the Southwest ( National Weather Service ( Climate Prediction Center ( Western Regional Climate Center ( National Drought Monitor ( Climate Science Applications Program ( 1

Climate Change and Arizona s Rangelands: Management Challenges and Opportunities

Climate Change and Arizona s Rangelands: Management Challenges and Opportunities Climate Change and Arizona s Rangelands: Management Challenges and Opportunities Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension

More information

Outline. Precipitation. How would you describe precipitation patterns in your area? Bottom line: one-page summary

Outline. Precipitation. How would you describe precipitation patterns in your area? Bottom line: one-page summary Outline Precipitation June 13, 2013 Phoenix, AZ Measuring rainfall Patterns of precipitation in time and space Predicting precipitation Patterns related to extreme events (floods & drought) Paleo-climate

More information

Climate Variability. Eric Salathé. Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington. Thanks to Nathan Mantua

Climate Variability. Eric Salathé. Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington. Thanks to Nathan Mantua Climate Variability Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Thanks to Nathan Mantua Northwest Climate: the mean Factors that influence local/regional

More information

Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?

Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE

More information

Regional Climate Variability in the Western U.S.: Observed vs. Anticipated

Regional Climate Variability in the Western U.S.: Observed vs. Anticipated Regional Climate Variability in the Western U.S.: Observed vs. Anticipated Klaus Wolter University of Colorado at Boulder, klaus.wolter@noaa.gov Kudos to Joe Barsugli and Jon Eischeid Seasonal Precipitation

More information

Climate Change Scenarios in Southern California. Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences

Climate Change Scenarios in Southern California. Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences Climate Change Scenarios in Southern California Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences Overview Climatology of Southern California Temperature and precipitation

More information

MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL

MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL GLOBAL GRAIN NORTH AMERICA 2014 Agenda Spring Recap North America Forecast El Niño Discussion

More information

El Niño, Climate Change and Water Supply Variability

El Niño, Climate Change and Water Supply Variability El Niño, Climate Change and Water Supply Variability Talk Overview El Niño and California California Climate Variability and Change Water Management in the Face of Change California s topography affects

More information

YACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer

YACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer YACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer Mike Crimmins Assoc. Professor/Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Environmental Science The University of Arizona Yes, another climate tool for

More information

How Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather. Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

How Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather. Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK Teleconnections How Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK Teleconnections Connectedness of large-scale weather patterns across the world If you poke

More information

An ENSO-Neutral Winter

An ENSO-Neutral Winter An ENSO-Neutral Winter This issue of the Blue Water Outlook newsletter is devoted towards my thoughts on the long range outlook for winter. You will see that I take a comprehensive approach to this outlook

More information

The Failed Science of Global warming: Time to Re-consider Climate Change

The Failed Science of Global warming: Time to Re-consider Climate Change The Failed Science of Global warming: Time to Re-consider Climate Change Madhav Khandekar Expert Reviewer IPCC 2007 Climate Change IPCC vs NIPCC IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; A UN Body

More information

Minnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture. Today. 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date

Minnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture. Today. 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date Minnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture Kenny Blumenfeld, State Climatology Office Crop Insurance Conference, Sep 13, 2017 Today 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University February 7, 2017 What a difference from last year at this time. Temperatures in January and February

More information

2003 Moisture Outlook

2003 Moisture Outlook 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu Through 1999 Through 1999 Fort Collins Total Water

More information

ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM

ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM El Nino is still hanging on but likely not for very long. Warmer than normal water can still be seen along the equator in the tropical Pacific. It is even warmer in the

More information

Sierra Weather and Climate Update

Sierra Weather and Climate Update Sierra Weather and Climate Update 2014-15 Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9 Percent of

More information

Wind: Global Systems Chapter 10

Wind: Global Systems Chapter 10 Wind: Global Systems Chapter 10 General Circulation of the Atmosphere General circulation of the atmosphere describes average wind patterns and is useful for understanding climate Over the earth, incoming

More information

Rainfall Patterns across Puerto Rico: The Rate of Change

Rainfall Patterns across Puerto Rico: The Rate of Change Rainfall Patterns across Puerto Rico: The 1980-2013 Rate of Change Odalys Martínez-Sánchez Lead Forecaster and Climate Team Leader WFO San Juan UPRRP Environmental Sciences PhD Student Introduction Ways

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College December 5, 2017 Summary: November was relatively cool and wet from central California throughout most of

More information

Winter Steve Todd Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Portland, OR

Winter Steve Todd Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Portland, OR Winter 07-08 Steve Todd Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Portland, OR Overview Winter Weather Outlook How to stay informed Winter Outlook LaNina conditions are present across the tropical

More information

Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook

Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu How we got into this drought! Fort

More information

Introduction. Observed Local Trends. Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones. Projections for the Philippines. Temperature Rainfall

Introduction. Observed Local Trends. Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones. Projections for the Philippines. Temperature Rainfall PAGASA-DOST ntroduction Observed Local Trends Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones Projections for the Philippines Temperature Rainfall Climate Change ssue ncreased use of fossil fuel Global Warming

More information

Climate and the Atmosphere

Climate and the Atmosphere Climate and Biomes Climate Objectives: Understand how weather is affected by: 1. Variations in the amount of incoming solar radiation 2. The earth s annual path around the sun 3. The earth s daily rotation

More information

Drought in Southeast Colorado

Drought in Southeast Colorado Drought in Southeast Colorado Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 1 Historical Perspective on Drought Tourism

More information

Weather Outlook: 2015 Growing Season

Weather Outlook: 2015 Growing Season Weather Outlook: 2015 Growing Season Leon F. Osborne Chester Fritz Distinguished Professor Regional Weather Information Center University of North Dakota Grand Forks, North Dakota Why Should We Be Concerned?

More information

Climate Impacts to Southwest Water Sector. Dr. Dave DuBois New Mexico State Climatologist

Climate Impacts to Southwest Water Sector. Dr. Dave DuBois New Mexico State Climatologist Climate Impacts to Southwest Water Sector Dr. Dave DuBois New Mexico State Climatologist Presented at EPA Extreme Events and Climate Adaptation Planning Workshop June 3, 2015 Water Year Precip. % of Average

More information

Introduction to Climate ~ Part I ~

Introduction to Climate ~ Part I ~ 2015/11/16 TCC Seminar JMA Introduction to Climate ~ Part I ~ Shuhei MAEDA (MRI/JMA) Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute (MRI/JMA) 1 Outline of the lecture 1. Climate System (

More information

"STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR "

STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR "STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR 2001 2010" ESPERANZA O. CAYANAN, Ph.D. Chief, Climatology & Agrometeorology R & D Section Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical

More information

Drought and Future Water for Southern New Mexico

Drought and Future Water for Southern New Mexico Drought and Future Water for Southern New Mexico David S. Gutzler University of New Mexico gutzler@unm.edu * The big drought of 2018 * Longer term challenges for water supply * Forecasting streamflow Elephant

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College February 5, 2018 Summary: For the majority of the month of January the persistent ridge of high pressure

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017 Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University August 4, 2017 July largely held true to forecast, although it ended with the start of one of the most extreme

More information

Quenching the Valley s thirst: The connection between Sierra Nevada snowpack & regional water supply

Quenching the Valley s thirst: The connection between Sierra Nevada snowpack & regional water supply Quenching the Valley s thirst: The connection between Sierra Nevada snowpack & regional water supply Roger Bales, UC Merced Snow conditions Snow & climate change Research directions Sierra Nevada snow

More information

Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 25, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales

Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 25, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 25, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales sroot@weatherbank.com MARCH 2016 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The March

More information

What is happening to the Jamaican climate?

What is happening to the Jamaican climate? What is happening to the Jamaican climate? Climate Change and Jamaica: Why worry? Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM) Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona Part 1 RAIN A FALL, BUT DUTTY

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 7, 2018 Summary: The ridge pattern that brought drier and warmer conditions from December through most

More information

2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care

2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care 2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days

More information

Northeast River Forecast Center s

Northeast River Forecast Center s Northeast River Forecast Center s Apr 13 th Spring Outlook Brought to you by: Edward Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Overview to Include: Potential flood outlook convective/synoptic conditions

More information

Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC

Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC This threat overview relies on projections of future climate change in the Mekong Basin for the period 2045-2069 compared to a baseline of 1980-2005.

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College January 5, 2018 Summary: A persistent ridge of high pressure over the west in December produced strong inversions

More information

Champaign-Urbana 2001 Annual Weather Summary

Champaign-Urbana 2001 Annual Weather Summary Champaign-Urbana 2001 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sws.uiuc.edu Maria Peters, Weather Observer January: After a cold and snowy December,

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: July 18, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO

Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: July 18, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: July 18, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com JUNE 2014 REVIEW Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average temperature for

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

ENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency

ENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency ENSO Outlook by JMA Hiroyuki Sugimoto El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Outline 1. ENSO impacts on the climate 2. Current Conditions 3. Prediction by JMA/MRI-CGCM 4. Summary

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

Investigate the influence of the Amazon rainfall on westerly wind anomalies and the 2002 Atlantic Nino using QuikScat, Altimeter and TRMM data

Investigate the influence of the Amazon rainfall on westerly wind anomalies and the 2002 Atlantic Nino using QuikScat, Altimeter and TRMM data Investigate the influence of the Amazon rainfall on westerly wind anomalies and the 2002 Atlantic Nino using QuikScat, Altimeter and TRMM data Rong Fu 1, Mike Young 1, Hui Wang 2, Weiqing Han 3 1 School

More information

Global Climates. Name Date

Global Climates. Name Date Global Climates Name Date No investigation of the atmosphere is complete without examining the global distribution of the major atmospheric elements and the impact that humans have on weather and climate.

More information

Seasonal Outlook through September 2007

Seasonal Outlook through September 2007 Seasonal Outlook through September 2007 Klaus Wolter (15may) University of Colorado, CIRES & NOAA-ESRL Climate Analysis Branch klaus.wolter@noaa.gov http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/swcasts/

More information

Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT NESC, Saratoga, NY

Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT   NESC, Saratoga, NY Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT http://alanbetts.com NESC, Saratoga, NY March 10, 2018 Increases in Extreme Weather Last decade: lack

More information

Funding provided by NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Project CLIMATE. Basic Climatology Colorado Climate Center

Funding provided by NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Project CLIMATE. Basic Climatology Colorado Climate Center Funding provided by NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Project CLIMATE Basic Climatology Colorado Climate Center Remember These? Factor 1: Our Energy Source Factor 2: Revolution & Tilt Factor 3: Rotation!

More information

Climate Variability and El Niño

Climate Variability and El Niño Climate Variability and El Niño David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University UF IFAS Extenstion IST January 17, 2017 The El

More information

Climate Change RMJOC Study Summary

Climate Change RMJOC Study Summary Climate Change RMJOC Study Summary Erik Pytlak Weather and Streamflow Forecasting Bonneville Power Administration Portland, OR IPCC: International Panel on Climate Change Established by the United Nations

More information

National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook

National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services Issued: September, 2007 Wildland Fire Outlook September through December 2007 Significant fire

More information

The scientific basis for climate change projections: History, Status, Unsolved problems

The scientific basis for climate change projections: History, Status, Unsolved problems The scientific basis for climate change projections: History, Status, Unsolved problems Isaac Held, Princeton, Feb 2008 Katrina-like storm spontaneously generated in atmospheric model Regions projected

More information

Diagnosing the Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Summer Climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)

Diagnosing the Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Summer Climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) Diagnosing the Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Summer Climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) Christopher L. Castro and Roger A. Pielke, Sr. Department of

More information

SEPTEMBER 2013 REVIEW

SEPTEMBER 2013 REVIEW Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: October 21, 2013 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com SEPTEMBER 2013 REVIEW Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average temperature

More information

I C P A C. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2017

I C P A C. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2017 Bulletin Issue October 2017 I C P A C IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2017 1. INTRODUCTION This bulletin reviews the September 2017

More information

Weather and Climate of the Rogue Valley By Gregory V. Jones, Ph.D., Southern Oregon University

Weather and Climate of the Rogue Valley By Gregory V. Jones, Ph.D., Southern Oregon University Weather and Climate of the Rogue Valley By Gregory V. Jones, Ph.D., Southern Oregon University The Rogue Valley region is one of many intermountain valley areas along the west coast of the United States.

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

Jennifer Francis Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Rutgers University In collaboration with Steve Vavrus, U. of Wisconsin

Jennifer Francis Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Rutgers University In collaboration with Steve Vavrus, U. of Wisconsin Jennifer Francis Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Rutgers University In collaboration with Steve Vavrus, U. of Wisconsin Arctic Linkages Workshop National Academies of Sciences 12-13 September

More information

Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences University Of Illinois Urbana-Champaign snodgrss@illinois.edu

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate

More information

Local Ctimatotogical Data Summary White Hall, Illinois

Local Ctimatotogical Data Summary White Hall, Illinois SWS Miscellaneous Publication 98-5 STATE OF ILLINOIS DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES Local Ctimatotogical Data Summary White Hall, Illinois 1901-1990 by Audrey A. Bryan and Wayne Armstrong Illinois

More information

Climate changes in Finland, but how? Jouni Räisänen Department of Physics, University of Helsinki

Climate changes in Finland, but how? Jouni Räisänen Department of Physics, University of Helsinki Climate changes in Finland, but how? Jouni Räisänen Department of Physics, University of Helsinki 19.9.2012 Outline Some basic questions and answers about climate change How are projections of climate

More information

The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative

The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative Phase 2 of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) is a three-year (2009 2012), $9 million research program investigating the causes and

More information

National Integrated Drought Information System. Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 20-March-2012

National Integrated Drought Information System. Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 20-March-2012 National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 20-March-2012 Current drought status from Drought Monitor http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

More information

OVERVIEW OF IMPROVED USE OF RS INDICATORS AT INAM. Domingos Mosquito Patricio

OVERVIEW OF IMPROVED USE OF RS INDICATORS AT INAM. Domingos Mosquito Patricio OVERVIEW OF IMPROVED USE OF RS INDICATORS AT INAM Domingos Mosquito Patricio domingos.mosquito@gmail.com Introduction to Mozambique /INAM Introduction to AGRICAB/SPIRITS Objectives Material & Methods Results

More information

The Climate of Texas County

The Climate of Texas County The Climate of Texas County Texas County is part of the Western High Plains in the north and west and the Southwestern Tablelands in the east. The Western High Plains are characterized by abundant cropland

More information

NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 21, 2017

NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 21, 2017 NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System November 21, 2017 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and

More information

JEFF JOHNSON S Winter Weather Outlook

JEFF JOHNSON S Winter Weather Outlook JEFF JOHNSON S 2017-2018 Winter Weather Outlook TABLE OF CONTENTS ABOUT THE AUTHOR Components of the seasonal outlook... 2 ENSO state/ocean temperatures... 3 Sub-seasonal outlooks... 4 Forecast models...

More information

The Texas drought. Kingtse Mo Climate Prediction Center NWS/NCEP/NOAA

The Texas drought. Kingtse Mo Climate Prediction Center NWS/NCEP/NOAA The 2011-2012 Texas drought Kingtse Mo Climate Prediction Center NWS/NCEP/NOAA 1 outline Evolution of the 2011-2012 Texas drought Climatology and historical perspective The 2011 drought Onset Feedback

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University December 5, 2016 Well after an October that felt more like November, we just finished a November that

More information

Long term change in the abundances of northern Gulf of Mexico scyphomedusae Chrysaora sp. and Aurelia spp. with links to climate variability

Long term change in the abundances of northern Gulf of Mexico scyphomedusae Chrysaora sp. and Aurelia spp. with links to climate variability Long term change in the abundances of northern Gulf of Mexico scyphomedusae Chrysaora sp. and Aurelia spp. with links to climate variability Kelly L. Robinson William M. Graham U. Southern Mississippi

More information

Factors that Affect Climate

Factors that Affect Climate Factors that Affect Climate What is climate? Climate is the average weather conditions over a long period of time Includes average temperatures and precipitation, wind patterns, humidity, air pressure

More information

Winter Forecast. Allan Huffman RaleighWx

Winter Forecast. Allan Huffman RaleighWx Winter 2014-15 Forecast Allan Huffman RaleighWx Winter 2014-15 Combination of weak/moderate El Nino/+PDO/-QBO and well above average snow cover and snow cover increase this Fall in Siberia point to a winter

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Date issued: Jan 26, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).

More information

Tracking the Climate Of Northern Colorado Nolan Doesken State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University

Tracking the Climate Of Northern Colorado Nolan Doesken State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Tracking the Climate Of Northern Colorado Nolan Doesken State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Northern Colorado Business Innovations November 20, 2013 Loveland, Colorado

More information

Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014

Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014 Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June

More information

Climate also has a large influence on how local ecosystems have evolved and how we interact with them.

Climate also has a large influence on how local ecosystems have evolved and how we interact with them. The Mississippi River in a Changing Climate By Paul Lehman, P.Eng., General Manager Mississippi Valley Conservation (This article originally appeared in the Mississippi Lakes Association s 212 Mississippi

More information

THE ATMOSPHERE IN MOTION

THE ATMOSPHERE IN MOTION Funding provided by NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Project THE ATMOSPHERE IN MOTION Basic Climatology Oklahoma Climatological Survey Factor 1: Our Energy Source Hi, I m the Sun! I provide 99.9999+

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 12, 2019

NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 12, 2019 NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System February 12, 2019 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom,

More information

Missouri River Basin Climate Outlook 1 May Dr. Dennis Todey State Climatologist South Dakota State Univ.

Missouri River Basin Climate Outlook 1 May Dr. Dennis Todey State Climatologist South Dakota State Univ. Missouri River Basin Climate Outlook 1 May 2014 Dr. Dennis Todey State Climatologist South Dakota State Univ. dennis.todey@sdstate.edu 605-688-5141 Photo taken Feb 19, 2013 General Information Providing

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2017 Report

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2017 Report Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College October 4, 2017 Summary: Typical variability in September temperatures with the onset of fall conditions evident

More information

The Climate of Marshall County

The Climate of Marshall County The Climate of Marshall County Marshall County is part of the Crosstimbers. This region is a transition region from the Central Great Plains to the more irregular terrain of southeastern Oklahoma. Average

More information

Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP,

Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sroot@weatherbank.com MARCH 2017 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average contiguous

More information

Impact of sea surface temperatures on African climate. Alessandra Giannini

Impact of sea surface temperatures on African climate. Alessandra Giannini Impact of sea surface temperatures on African climate Alessandra Giannini alesall@iri.columbia.edu Outline: Intro/Motivation: demand-driven science, use of seasonal climate prediction, adaptation to climate

More information

NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System September 4, 2018

NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System September 4, 2018 NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System September 4, 2018 Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and

More information

Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014

Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (

More information

Champaign-Urbana 2000 Annual Weather Summary

Champaign-Urbana 2000 Annual Weather Summary Champaign-Urbana 2000 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sws.uiuc.edu Maria Peters, Weather Observer January: January started on a mild note,

More information

Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO

Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com JANUARY 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review During January, the average

More information

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016 Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University November 5, 2016 After a year where we were seemingly off by a month in terms of temperatures (March

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through

More information

Extreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S.

Extreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S. Extreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University March 7, 2016 Causes of Extreme Rainfall

More information

Colorado CoCoRaHS. Colorado CoCoRaHS. Because Every Drop Counts! October 2014 Volume 2, Issue 10

Colorado CoCoRaHS. Colorado CoCoRaHS. Because Every Drop Counts! October 2014 Volume 2, Issue 10 U.S. PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) LOOKING BACK AT SEPTEMBER 2014 September was dry for much of the nation with a few exceptions; one of those being the central Rockies. In Colorado, it was wetter-than-average

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño

More information

Midwest/Great Plains Climate-Drought Outlook September 20, 2018

Midwest/Great Plains Climate-Drought Outlook September 20, 2018 Midwest/Great Plains Climate-Drought Outlook September 20, 2018 Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln School of Natural Resources September 20, 2018 General Information

More information

I C P A C. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for April 2018

I C P A C. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for April 2018 No. ICPAC/02/312 Bulletin Issue May 2018 I C P A C IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for April 2018 1. INTRODUCTION This bulletin reviews the April

More information