FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS IN ASIA
|
|
- Abraham Carson
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS IN ASIA AKIO KITOH, MASAHIRO HOSAKA, YUKIMASA ADACHI, KENJI KAMIGUCHI Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba, Ibaraki , Japan It is anticipated that global warming will result in large changes in Asian climate, including changes in the monsoon intensity and duration in South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia, and even in ENSO-monsoon relationship. Using the daily precipitation output of global climate model simulations under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, projected changes in precipitation characteristics around mid-21st century and end-ofthe-century are analyzed. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. Over the rest of the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. East Asia is a region where summertime wet-day frequency decreased but precipitation intensity increased. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an El Nino-like mean SST change and associated circulation changes, i.e. a strengthened subtropical high. MODEL AND EXPERIMENT We conducted the history simulation during with observed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosols (history run) and then future projections up to 2100 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios (IPCC [1]). The model used is the MRI coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM (MRI-CGCM2, Yukimoto et al. [2]). The atmospheric part of the model has a horizontal resolution of T42 (about 280km) and 30 vertical levels. The oceanic part adopted variable resolution for latitudinal direction with finer grid in the tropics and fixed 2.5 for longitudinal direction. The model performance in simulating Asian summer monsoon is found in Rajendran et al. [3]. Three ensemble runs were performed for each scenario from different initial conditions. Daily precipitation output was analyzed. RESULTS In this report, we compare 3 ensemble averages of the mid-21st century 20 yr ( ) simulations and the end of the 21tst century ( ) under the SRES-A2 and B2 scenarios with 3 ensemble averages of the present ( ) simulations. Figure 1 shows the time series of the annual and global mean surface air temperature and precipitation of the history run and the A2 and B2 scenario runs. The annual mean temperature indicates a strong warming trend particularly towards late 21st century in the 1
2 SRES-A2 scenario to attain a warming of 2.19 o C at 2100 compared to the present. In the SRES-B2 scenario the warming is less (1.40 o C). At the mid-21st century, the difference in the warming is small between A2 (0.84 o C) and B2 (0.72 o C). Changes in the annual mean precipitation show an increase of 4.54% in SRES-A2 scenario, while 2.48% in the B2 scenario. Again the difference between A2 and B2 scenarios is negligible until mid- 21st century (1.41% and 1.57%, respectively). 2 Figure 1. Time series of annual and global mean (a) surface air temperature and (b) precipitation of the history and the SRES-A2 and B2 scenario runs Figure 2 shows the change in annual mean surface air temperature at and for both A2 and B2 scenarios. Strong warming is evident in high latitudes at the end of the 21st century in SRES-A2 scenario. However its spatial pattern is similar to each other, with the higher latitudes being warmer than the lower latitudes, and the land surface warmer than over the oceans. It is noted that over the tropical Pacific the eastern part warms up more than the western part, suggesting a permanent El Nino-like SST change by global warming. Figure 3 shows the change in annual mean total precipitation at and for both A2 and B2 scenarios. In the tropics, an eastward displacement of major precipitation center is noted associated with El Nino-like background mean SST changes (not shown). In Asia annual mean precipitation increased in both scenarios and both time times. Increased rainfall in the South Asian summer monsoon is noted. In higher latitudes total precipitation increased, while there is a decrease in precipitation over the subtropical oceans and the Mediterranean region.
3 3 Figure 2. Annual mean surface air temperature difference (F P) at (a) for A2, (b) for B2, (c) for A2, and (d) for B2. Figure 3. As in Fig.2 except for total precipitation.
4 4 Figure 4. As in Fig. 2 except for rainy-day frequency. Figure 5. As in Fig. 2 except for precipitation intensity in rainy day.
5 5 Figure 6. Changes in three characteristics in precipitation based on total precipitation (T), wet-day frequency (F) and precipitation intensity of wet-day (I). Classification of types 1-8 are + + +, ++, + +, +, + +, +, + and for T F I, respectively. Figure 4 shows the changes in annual rainy-day frequency. Here we defined the day as rainy when daily precipitation exceeding 1.0 mm/d. An overall spatial pattern is similar to that in total precipitation, but relatively large changes in frequency can be found in the middle and high latitudes. Also the areal extent of negative changes in wetday frequency is larger than that in total precipitation Figure 5 shows the changes in the intensity of precipitation in rainy days. An overall pattern is again similar to Figs. 3 and 4 in the tropics and high latitudes. However, in the mid-latitudes, there are regions with different signs between intensity and frequency. For example, over the Mediterranean region, the frequency change is negative while the intensity change is positive. If areal extent of positive or negative changes is compared, total precipitation has increased over about 65% of the globe at in the SRES-A2 scenario (Fig. 3c). It is 42% of the globe where wet-day frequency has increased, while it is 79% where the intensity of precipitation in rainy days has increased. These numbers differ only a few percent from decades to decades and between A2 and B2 scenarios.
6 In order to investigate the relationship among the three characteristics we classified each grid point into 8 categories. Figure 6 shows the changes in three characteristics in precipitation based on total precipitation, wet-day frequency and wet-day precipitation intensity. Table 1 shows the ratio of area each type. It is shown that both the frequency and intensity increased in about 40% of the globe (type 1), while both the frequency and intensity decreased in about 20% of the globe (type 8). In between, which occupies around one third of the globe, the precipitation frequency decreased but its intensity increased (type 3 or 7). Existence of types 3 and 7 suggests a shift toward more intense precipitation events by global warming. Moreover, the ratio of types 3 and 7 becomes larger from the SRES-B2 scenario to the SRES-A2 scenario, and also from the period of to the period , corresponding the magnitude of the warming. Table 1. Relative area ratio (% of the globe) of 8 classifications for the middle ( ) and the end ( ) of the 21st century for the SRES-A2 and B2 scenario runs. Types 2, 4, 5 and 6 are grouped. Total Freq Intens A2/41-60 A2/81-00 B2/41-60 B2/81-00 Type Type Type Type Others The Mediterranean and the Middle East is the type 7 region where both total precipitation and number of rainy days decreased but precipitation intensity itself increased. It is interesting to note that the observed rainfall over the Mediterranean showed an increase of extreme rainfall in spite of decrease in total precipitation (e.g., Alpert et al. [4]). The East Asia and the Southeast Asia are the type 3 regions and may be regarded as a more flood vulnerable region in the future. Figure 7 compares the seasonal changes of the total precipitation, wet-day frequency and precipitation intensity averaged for South China (100 o E 120 o E, 26 o N 33 o N) between the present and the period for the SRES-A2 scenario run. The SRES-A2 scenario shows increase total precipitation in early rainy season of March May, while wet-day frequency decreased in mid-summer season of May August. However the precipitation intensity has increased almost all the year round. Figure 8 shows the June-August (JJA) total moisture flux and its convergence in the model control climate and its changes in of the SRES-A2 scenario. There is a moisture flux convergence over the wide area in Asia. Increased atmospheric moisture content in the warmer air in the scenario run leads to larger moisture flux and increased
7 precipitation (e.g., Kitoh et al. [5]). It is also noted that the Pacific subtropical anticyclone becomes stronger and more southerly moisture flux converges over South China. It is plausible that wet-day frequency decreases due to a westward shift and an intensification of the subtropical anticyclone while larger moisture flux results in more intense precipitation. Moisture flux convergence is also larger over Japan, suggesting more intense Baiu activity in this region. These circulation anomalies are often observed at times of El Nino events, and thus the simulated El Nino-like mean climate response in the tropical Pacific (Fig. 2) may be related to these changes in Asia. 7 Figure 7. Seasonal changes of (a) total precipitation, (b) wet-day frequency and (c) precipitation intensity for South China (100 o E 120 o E, 26 o N 33 o N). Solid line denotes present and dashed line denotes for the SRES-A2 scenario run. Box is plotted at abscissa where the difference between future and present is statistically significant based on 3 ensemble members where black (dark) color denotes future is larger (smaller) than present. Figure 8. (a) Total moisture flux and its divergence in JJA in the control run. Shaded area denotes moisture flux convergence, (b) Changes in total moisture flux and its divergence in JJA for the period of the SRES-A2 scenario run.
8 8 SUMMARY The daily precipitation data produced by the MRI-CGCM ensemble runs under the SRES A and SRES-B2 scenarios are analyzed. In the tropics, eastward displacement of precipitation was noted associated with El Nino-like mean SST changes. From the analysis of precipitation characteristics, it is found that over one third of the globe, number of rainy days decreased but precipitation intensity has increased. Areal extent of such a region will increase towards the end of the 21st century by global warming. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research was partly funded by "Study of the Prediction of Regional Climate Changes over Japan due to Global Warming" of JMA and by "Water Resource and Its Variability in Asia in the 21st Century" of "Special Coordination Funds for Promoting Science and Technology" of MEXT. REFERENCES [1] IPCC, "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", Houghton JT et al. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, (2001). [2] Yukimoto S., and Coauthors, "The new Meteorological Research Institute coupled GCM (MRI-CGCM2) - Model climate and variability", Pap. Meteor. Geophys., Vol. 51, (2001), pp [3] Rajendran K., Kitoh A. and Yukimoto S., "South and east Asian summer monsoon climate and variation in the MRI coupled model (MRI-CGCM2)", J. Climate, Vol. 17, (2004), pp [4] Alpert P., and Coauthors, "The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values", Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 29, No. 11, (2002), /2001GL [5] Kitoh A., Yukimoto S., Noda A. and Motoi T., "Simulated changes in the Asian summer monsoon at times of increased atmospheric CO 2 ", J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, Vol. 75, No. 6, (1997), pp
Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models
Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models Project Representative Akira Noda Meteorological Research Institute Authors Akira Noda 1, Shoji Kusunoki 1 and Masanori Yoshizaki
More informationThe Interdecadal Variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High as Measured by 500 hpa Eddy Geopotential Height
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2015, VOL. 8, NO. 6, 371 375 The Interdecadal Variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High as Measured by 500 hpa Eddy Geopotential Height HUANG Yan-Yan and
More informationWill a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE
More informationThe Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2010, VOL. 3, NO. 1, 25 30 The Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO HU Kai-Ming and HUANG Gang State Key
More informationUnseasonable weather conditions in Japan in August 2014
Unseasonable weather conditions in Japan in August 2014 Summary of analysis by the TCC Advisory Panel on Extreme Climatic Events In an extraordinary session held at the Japan Meteorological Agency on 3
More informationVerification of the Seasonal Forecast for the 2005/06 Winter
Verification of the Seasonal Forecast for the 2005/06 Winter Shingo Yamada Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency 2006/11/02 7 th Joint Meeting on EAWM Contents 1. Verification of the Seasonal
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
Intensification of Northern Hemisphere Subtropical Highs in a Warming Climate Wenhong Li, Laifang Li, Mingfang Ting, and Yimin Liu 1. Data and Methods The data used in this study consists of the atmospheric
More informationZambia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Zambia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationSt Lucia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles St Lucia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationThe ENSO s Effect on Eastern China Rainfall in the Following Early Summer
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, VOL. 26, NO. 2, 2009, 333 342 The ENSO s Effect on Eastern China Rainfall in the Following Early Summer LIN Zhongda ( ) andluriyu( F ) Center for Monsoon System Research,
More informationHigh Resolution (20-km Mesh) Global Climate Model and Projected Hydro- Meteorological Extremes in the Future. Akio Kitoh
2011.6.29, U-02, IUGG, Melbourne High Resolution (20-km Mesh) Global Climate Model and Projected Hydro- Meteorological Extremes in the Future Akio Kitoh Climate Research Department Meteorological Research
More informationGrenada. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationCuba. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Cuba C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationAntigua and Barbuda. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Antigua and Barbuda C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
More informationAbstract: INTRODUCTION MODEL AND EXPERIMENT
Hydrological Research Letters 3, 49 53 (2009) Published online in J-STAGE (www.jstage.jst.go.jp/browse/hrl). DOI: 10.3178/HRL.3.49 Projection of changes in future weather extremes using super-high-resolution
More informationIntroduction of products for Climate System Monitoring
Introduction of products for Climate System Monitoring 1 Typical flow of making one month forecast Textbook P.66 Observed data Atmospheric and Oceanic conditions Analysis Numerical model Ensemble forecast
More informationJMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018
JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018 Atsushi Minami Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
More informationMozambique. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Mozambique C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationSeasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014
Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June
More informationIntroduction of climate monitoring and analysis products for one-month forecast
Introduction of climate monitoring and analysis products for one-month forecast TCC Training Seminar on One-month Forecast on 13 November 2018 10:30 11:00 1 Typical flow of making one-month forecast Observed
More information7 December 2016 Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency
Summary of the 2016 Asian Summer Monsoon 7 December 2016 Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency This report summarizes the characteristics of the surface climate and atmospheric/oceanographic
More informationSuriname. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Suriname C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationCharacteristics of Future Changes in Summertime East Asian Monthly Precipitation in MRI-AGCM Global Warming Experiments
Journal April 2019 of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 97(2), 317 335, T. OSE 2019. doi:10.2151/jmsj.2019-018 317 Characteristics of Future Changes in Summertime East Asian Monthly Precipitation in
More informationClimate Risk Profile for Samoa
Climate Risk Profile for Samoa Report Prepared by Wairarapa J. Young Samoa Meteorology Division March, 27 Summary The likelihood (i.e. probability) components of climate-related risks in Samoa are evaluated
More informationEARLY ONLINE RELEASE
EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a PDF of a manuscript that has been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication. As the article has not yet been formatted, copy edited or proofread, the final published version
More informationCape Verde. General Climate. Recent Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationIAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications
WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications Zhaohui LIN Zhou Guangqing Chen Hong Qin Zhengkun Zeng Qingcun Institute
More informationMalawi. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Malawi C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationEvidence for Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon and SA CORDEX Results from RegCM
Evidence for Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon and SA CORDEX Results from RegCM S K Dash Centre for Atmospheric Sciences Indian Institute of Technology Delhi Based on a paper entitled Projected Seasonal
More informationClimate Outlook for March August 2017
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for March August 2017 BUSAN, 24 February 2017 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for March to August 2017 (MAMJJA) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located
More informationENSO and April SAT in MSA. This link is critical for our regression analysis where ENSO and
Supplementary Discussion The Link between El Niño and MSA April SATs: Our study finds a robust relationship between ENSO and April SAT in MSA. This link is critical for our regression analysis where ENSO
More informationFuture pattern of Asian drought under global warming scenario
Future pattern of Asian drought under global warming scenario Kim D.W., Byun H.R., Lee S.M. in López-Francos A. (ed.). Drought management: scientific and technological innovations Zaragoza : CIHEAM Options
More informationThe feature of atmospheric circulation in the extremely warm winter 2006/2007
The feature of atmospheric circulation in the extremely warm winter 2006/2007 Hiroshi Hasegawa 1, Yayoi Harada 1, Hiroshi Nakamigawa 1, Atsushi Goto 1 1 Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological
More informationIntroduction of Seasonal Forecast Guidance. TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Prediction Products November 2013
Introduction of Seasonal Forecast Guidance TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Prediction Products 11-15 November 2013 1 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Regression method Single/Multi regression model Selection
More informationKUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT
T KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT 2 ALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL http://www.met.gov.my DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF SCIENCE. TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATIO Introduction Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationDevelopment of a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land General Circulation Model (GCM) at the Frontier Research Center for Global Change
Chapter 1 Atmospheric and Oceanic Simulation Development of a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land General Circulation Model (GCM) at the Frontier Research Center for Global Change Project Representative Tatsushi
More informationRainfall variability over the Indochina peninsula during the Boreal Winter, Part I: Preliminary data analysis
Rainfall variability over the Indochina peninsula during the Boreal Winter, Part I: Preliminary data analysis Sirapong Sooktawee*, sirapong@deqp.go.th; Atsamon Limsakul, atsamon@deqp.go.th, Environmental
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic NiZo Index
More informationClimate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015 BUSAN, 23 April 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for May - October 2015 (MJJASO) at the APEC Climate Center
More information1C.4 Tropical cyclone climatology in a global warming climate as simulated in a 20km-mesh global atmospheric model
1C.4 Tropical cyclone climatology in a global warming climate as simulated in a 20km-mesh global atmospheric model Kazuyoshi Oouchi (1), Jun Yoshimura (3), Hiromasa Yoshimura (3), Ryo Mizuta (2), Shoji
More informationClimate Variability and Change Past, Present and Future An Overview
Climate Variability and Change Past, Present and Future An Overview Dr Jim Salinger National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Auckland, New Zealand INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON REDUCING VULNERABILITY
More informationProjected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models
Article SPECIAL ISSUE: Extreme Climate in China April 2013 Vol.58 No.12: 1462 1472 doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5612-2 Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using
More informationImpacts of Recent El Niño Modoki on Extreme Climate Conditions In East Asia and the United States during Boreal Summer
Impacts of Recent El Niño Modoki on Extreme Climate Conditions In East Asia and the United States during Boreal Summer Hengyi Weng 1, Karumuri Ashok 1, Swadhin Behera 1, Suryachandra A. Rao 1 and Toshio
More informationResearch on Climate of Typhoons Affecting China
Research on Climate of Typhoons Affecting China Xu Ming Shanghai Typhoon Institute November,25 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Typhoon disasters in China 3. Climatology and climate change of typhoon affecting
More informationNOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE The Skillful Time Scale of Climate Models
Journal January of 2016 the Meteorological Society of Japan, I. TAKAYABU Vol. 94A, pp. and 191 197, K. HIBINO 2016 191 DOI:10.2151/jmsj.2015-038 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE The Skillful Time Scale of Climate
More informationProjection of Ocean Wave Climate Change Based on Numerical Simulations
Projection of Ocean Wave Climate Change Based on Numerical Simulations Muhammad Zikra a,*, Noriaki Hashimoto b and Kodama Mitsuyasu b a) Department of Ocean Engineering, Faculty of Marine Technology, Institut
More information3.4 THE IMPACT OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES ON CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
3.4 THE IMPACT OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES ON CLIMATE SENSITIVITY David J. Karoly*, Lance M. Leslie and Diandong Ren School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman OK and Mark Leplastrier
More informationPrimary Factors Contributing to Japan's Extremely Hot Summer of 2010
temperature anomalies by its standard deviation for JJA 2010 Primary Factors Contributing to Japan's Extremely Hot Summer of 2010 Nobuyuki Kayaba Climate Prediction Division,Japan Meteorological Agancy
More information3. Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 )
3. Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Basic information on CO 2 with regard to environmental issues Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is a significant greenhouse gas that has strong absorption bands in the infrared region and
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
doi:10.1038/nature11576 1. Trend patterns of SST and near-surface air temperature Bucket SST and NMAT have a similar trend pattern particularly in the equatorial Indo- Pacific (Fig. S1), featuring a reduced
More informationProjected future increase of tropical cyclones near Hawaii. Hiroyuki Murakami, Bin Wang, Tim Li, and Akio Kitoh University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC
Projected future increase of tropical cyclones near Hawaii Hiroyuki Murakami, Bin Wang, Tim Li, and Akio Kitoh University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC Review of effect of global warming on TC activity Knutson
More information18. ATTRIBUTION OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST CHINA DURING MAY 2015
18. ATTRIBUTION OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST CHINA DURING MAY 2015 Claire Burke, Peter Stott, Ying Sun, and Andrew Ciavarella Anthropogenic climate change increased the probability that a short-duration,
More informationFuture Changes in Rainfall Extremes Associated with El Niño Projected by a Global 20-km Mesh Atmospheric Model
SOLA, 2016, Vol. 12A, 1 6, doi:10.2151/sola.12a-001 1 Future Changes in Rainfall Extremes Associated with El Niño Projected by a Global 20-km Mesh Atmospheric Model Akio Kitoh 1, and Hirokazu Endo 2 1
More informationGlobal Warming Projection Studies at the Meteorological Research Institute/JMA
Present and Future of Modeling Global Environmental Change: Toward Integrated Modeling, Eds., T. Matsuno and H. Kida, pp. 1 14. by TERRAPUB, 2001. Global Warming Projection Studies at the Meteorological
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016
Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Date: Dec 17, 2015 1. Advisory Most models are showing the continuation of a strong El-Niño episode towards the latesummer season with the expectation to start
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION doi:10.1038/nature11784 Methods The ECHO-G model and simulations The ECHO-G model 29 consists of the 19-level ECHAM4 atmospheric model and 20-level HOPE-G ocean circulation model.
More informationENSO, AO, and climate in Japan. 15 November 2016 Yoshinori Oikawa, Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency
ENSO, AO, and climate in Japan 15 November 2016 Yoshinori Oikawa, Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency Aims of this lecture At the end of the yesterday s lecture, Hare-run said, - In the exercise
More informationEast-west SST contrast over the tropical oceans and the post El Niño western North Pacific summer monsoon
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L15706, doi:10.1029/2005gl023010, 2005 East-west SST contrast over the tropical oceans and the post El Niño western North Pacific summer monsoon Toru Terao Faculty
More informationObservational validation of an extended mosaic technique for capturing subgrid scale heterogeneity in a GCM
Printed in Singapore. All rights reserved C 2007 The Authors Journal compilation C 2007 Blackwell Munksgaard TELLUS Observational validation of an extended mosaic technique for capturing subgrid scale
More informationTibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in East Asia
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L14702, doi:10.1029/2008gl034330, 2008 Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in East Asia Bin Wang, 1,2 Qing Bao, 3 Brian
More informationTHE STUDY OF NUMBERS AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER PART OF THAILAND
THE STUDY OF NUMBERS AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER PART OF THAILAND Aphantree Yuttaphan 1, Sombat Chuenchooklin 2 and Somchai Baimoung 3 ABSTRACT The upper part of Thailand
More information1.Decadal prediction ( ) 2. Longer term (to 2100 and beyond)
Coordinated climate change experiments (formulated by WGCM and AIMES) to be run for assessment in IPCC AR5 Two classes of models to address two time frames and two sets of science questions: 1.Decadal
More informationPossible Roles of Atlantic Circulations on the Weakening Indian Monsoon Rainfall ENSO Relationship
2376 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE Possible Roles of Atlantic Circulations on the Weakening Indian Monsoon Rainfall ENSO Relationship C.-P. CHANG, PATRICK HARR, AND JIANHUA JU Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate
More informationConsistent changes in twenty-first century daily precipitation from regional climate simulations for Korea using two convection parameterizations
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L14706, doi:10.1029/2008gl034126, 2008 Consistent changes in twenty-first century daily precipitation from regional climate simulations
More informationPrediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years
42 ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA VOL.22 Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years LIU Yanxiang 1,2,3 ( ), YAN Jinghui 1 ( ), WU Tongwen 1 ( ), GUO Yufu 2 ( ), CHEN
More informationWhat factors affect climate? Dr. Michael J Passow
What factors affect climate? Dr. Michael J Passow Energy from the Sun (mostly light and heat) radiates to Earth SUN 150 x 10 6 km (92 x 10 6 mi) EARTH Challenge: If the speed of light is 300,000 km/sec,
More informationThe Coupled Model Predictability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon with Different Leading Times
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2012, VOL. 5, NO. 3, 219 224 The Coupled Model Predictability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon with Different Leading Times LU Ri-Yu 1, LI Chao-Fan 1,
More informationREGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATION OVER ASIA UNDER THE GLOBAL WARMING NESTED IN THE CCSR/NIES AGCM
REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATION OVER ASIA UNDER THE GLOBAL WARMING NESTED IN THE CCSR/NIES AGCM KOJI DAIRAKU Atmospheric Environment Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa Tsukuba,
More informationImpact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Asian summer monsoon
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L24701, doi:10.1029/2006gl027655, 2006 Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Asian summer monsoon Riyu Lu, 1,2 Buwen Dong, 3 and Hui Ding 2,4 Received
More informationJune 1993 T. Nitta and J. Yoshimura 367. Trends and Interannual and Interdecadal Variations of. Global Land Surface Air Temperature
June 1993 T. Nitta and J. Yoshimura 367 Trends and Interannual and Interdecadal Variations of Global Land Surface Air Temperature By Tsuyoshi Nitta Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo,
More informationEarth s Climate Patterns
Earth s Climate Patterns Reading: Chapter 17, GSF 10/2/09 Also Jackson (linked on course web site) 1 What aspects of climate affect plant distributions? Climate: long-term distribution of weather in an
More informationContents of this file
Geophysical Research Letters Supporting Information for Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in high-resolution large-ensemble simulations Kohei Yoshida 1, Masato Sugi 1, Ryo Mizuta 1, Hiroyuki
More informationHow can we explain possible human contribution to weather events?
WMO-IPCC Tokyo workshop for weather presenters, November 11, 2015 How can we explain possible human contribution to weather events? Masahiro Watanabe Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University
More informationReprint 675. Variations of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the South China Sea. Y.K. Leung, M.C. Wu & W.L. Chang
Reprint 675 Variations of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the South China Sea Y.K. Leung, M.C. Wu & W.L. Chang ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Review 25 Variations in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the South
More informationThe Australian Summer Monsoon
The Australian Summer Monsoon Aurel Moise, Josephine Brown, Huqiang Zhang, Matt Wheeler and Rob Colman Australian Bureau of Meteorology Presentation to WMO IWM-IV, Singapore, November 2017 Outline Australian
More informationProjection of Extreme Wave Climate Change under Global Warming
Hydrological Research Letters, 4, 15 19 (2010) Published online in J-STAGE (www.jstage.jst.go.jp/browse/hrl). DOI: 10.3178/HRL.4.15 Projection of Extreme Wave Climate Change under Global Warming Nobuhito
More informationNo. 20 Spring El Niño Outlook (April October 2010) 1. Contents. (a) (a) (b) (b) Tokyo Climate Center 1 No. 20 Spring 2010
No. 20 Spring 2010 Contents El Niño Outlook (April October 2010) 1 JMA s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Summer 2010 2 Warm Season Outlook for Summer 2010 in Japan 4 Summary of Asian Winter
More informationInfluence of the Western Pacific Subtropical High on summertime ozone variability in East China
Influence of the Western Pacific Subtropical High on summertime ozone variability in East China Zijian Zhao 1 and Yuxuan Wang 1,2 1 Dept. Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, China 2 Dept. Earth
More informationManfred A. Lange Energy, Environment and Water Research Center The Cyprus Institute. M. A. Lange 11/26/2008 1
Manfred A. Lange Energy, Environment and Water Research Center The Cyprus Institute M. A. Lange 11/26/2008 1 Background and Introduction Mediterranean Climate Past and Current Conditions Tele-Connections
More informationExample of the one month forecast
Example of the one month forecast Masayuki Hirai Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)/ Climate Prediction Division of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Example Note that the initial time and the forecast target
More informationThe Global Monsoon Response to Volcanic Eruptions in the CMIP5 Past1000 Simulations and Model Simulations of FGOALS
The Global Monsoon Response to Volcanic Eruptions in the CMIP5 Past1000 Simulations and Model Simulations of FGOALS Wenmin Man, Tianjun Zhou Email: manwenmin@mail.iap.ac.cn PAGES2k-PMIP3 Hydroclimate Workshop,
More informationClimate Change Scenarios in Southern California. Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences
Climate Change Scenarios in Southern California Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences Overview Climatology of Southern California Temperature and precipitation
More informationImpact of Eurasian spring snow decrement on East Asian summer precipitation
Impact of Eurasian spring snow decrement on East Asian summer precipitation Renhe Zhang 1,2 Ruonan Zhang 2 Zhiyan Zuo 2 1 Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University 2 Chinese Academy of Meteorological
More informationMonsoon Activities in China Tianjun ZHOU
Monsoon Activities in China Tianjun ZHOU Email: zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn CLIVAR AAMP10, Busan,, Korea 18-19 19 June 2010 Outline Variability of EASM -- Interdecadal variability -- Interannual variability
More informationThe Planetary Circulation System
12 The Planetary Circulation System Learning Goals After studying this chapter, students should be able to: 1. describe and account for the global patterns of pressure, wind patterns and ocean currents
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for November 2017 1.1 In November 2017, Southeast Asia experienced inter-monsoon conditions in the first
More informationClimate Outlook for December 2015 May 2016
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for December 2015 May 2016 BUSAN, 25 November 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for December 2015 to May 2016 (DJFMAM) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC),
More informationChapter outline. Reference 12/13/2016
Chapter 2. observation CC EST 5103 Climate Change Science Rezaul Karim Environmental Science & Technology Jessore University of science & Technology Chapter outline Temperature in the instrumental record
More informationSevere summer rainfall in China associated with enhanced global warming
CLIMATE RESEARCH Vol. 16: 51 59, Published November 1 Clim Res Severe summer rainfall in China associated with enhanced global warming Dao-Yi Gong 1, *, Shao-Wu Wang 2 1 Key Laboratory for Environmental
More informationClimate Dynamics (PCC 587): Hydrologic Cycle and Global Warming
Climate Dynamics (PCC 587): Hydrologic Cycle and Global Warming D A R G A N M. W. F R I E R S O N U N I V E R S I T Y O F W A S H I N G T O N, D E P A R T M E N T O F A T M O S P H E R I C S C I E N C
More informationTemperature extremes in the United States: Quantifying the response to aerosols and greenhouse gases with implications for the warming hole
Temperature extremes in the United States: Quantifying the response to aerosols and greenhouse gases with implications for the warming hole Nora Mascioli, Arlene Fiore, Michael Previdi, Gustavo Correa
More informationChristopher L. Castro Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Arizona
Spatiotemporal Variability and Covariability of Temperature, Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation in North America for Regional Climate Model Applications Christopher L. Castro Department of Atmospheric
More informationConfronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region. Technical Appendix Climate Change Projections CLIMATE MODELS
Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region Technical Appendix Climate Change Projections CLIMATE MODELS Large, three-dimensional, coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs) of
More informationForced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific
Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific Wei Mei 1 Shang-Ping Xie 1, Ming Zhao 2 & Yuqing Wang 3 Climate Variability and Change and Paleoclimate Working
More informationInstability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-ENSO Relationship in a coupled global atmosphere-ocean GCM
Instability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-ENSO Relationship in a coupled global atmosphere-ocean GCM JIANG Dabang 1 WANG Huijun 1 DRANGE Helge 2 LANG Xianmei 1 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling
More informationClimate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017 BUSAN, 26 June 2017 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for July December 2017 (JASOND) at the APEC Climate Center
More information4. Climatic changes. Past variability Future evolution
4. Climatic changes Past variability Future evolution TROPICAL CYCLONES and CLIMATE How TCs have varied during recent and distant past? How will TC activity vary in the future? 2 CURRENT CLIMATE : how
More informationMDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL
MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL GLOBAL GRAIN NORTH AMERICA 2014 Agenda Spring Recap North America Forecast El Niño Discussion
More informationMoist static energy budget diagnostics for. monsoon research. H. Annamalai
Moist static energy budget diagnostics for monsoon research H. Annamalai JJAS Precipitation and SST Climatology I III II Multiple regional heat sources - EIO and SPCZ still experience high precipitation
More information