Cape Verde. General Climate. Recent Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
|
|
|
- Brice Gibson
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research General Climate The islands of are located in the Atlantic Ocean, around 600km from the West coast of Africa, at latitudes of N. Although situated in the arid sub tropics, the climate of the islands is not as hot or dry as continental regions at the same latitude. Temperatures vary between an average C in the coolest season (NDJ) and in the warmest season (MJJ). There is one wet season, between August and October, when the sporadic rainfall averages mm per month. Atlantic hurricanes often originate just east of, passing as they travel west towards America. Recent Climate Temperature Mean annual temperature has increased by 0.6 C since 1960, an average rate of 0.14 C per decade. The rate of increase is most rapid in the wet season, ASO at 0.23 C per decade. There is insufficient daily observational data available to identify trends in daily temperature extremes. Precipitation Mean annual rainfall over has not changed with any consistent trend since Some unusually high rainfalls have occurred in NDJ very recent years, which are unusual for this season which is normally very dry. There are insufficient daily rainfall observations available from which to determine changes in extremes indices of daily rainfall. 1
2 Model Projections of Future Climate Temperature The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 0.7 to 2.5 C by the 2060s, and 1.2 to 3.7 C by the 2090s. The range of projections by the 2090s under any one emissions scenario is C. Increases in temperature occur at a similar rate in all seasons. All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered as hot 1 in current climate. o Annually, projections indicate that hot days will occur on 16 32% of days by the 2060s, and 23 51% of days by the 2090s. Days considered hot by current climate standards for their season are may increase most rapidly in ASO, but the range between model projections is large, occurring on % of days of the season by the 2090s. o Nights that are considered hot for the annual climate of are projected to occur on 23 49% of nights by the 2060s and 31 79% of nights by the 2090s. Nights that are considered hot for each season by standards are projected to occur on % of nights in every season by the 2090s. All projections indicate decreases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered cold 2 in current climate. Cold days and nights do not occur at all by the 2090s in any projections, and only occur under the lowest emissions scenario (B1) by the 2060s. Precipitation Projections of mean annual rainfall averaged over the country from different models in the ensemble are not consistent in projecting either increases or decreases in rainfall. In the dry seasons NDJ, FMA and particularly in MJJ the model ensemble tends towards decreases in rainfall, which are small in absolute terms (mm) but represent a large proportion of the total rainfall as a percentage. Projections of change in wet season (ASO) rainfall very significantly between models, ranging between 77% and +87%. The changes proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy 3 events range between increases and decreases in projections from different models. The range of changes in 1 and 5 day rainfall maxima in projections from the model ensemble covers both increases and decreases. 1 Hot day or hot night is defined by the temperature exceeded on 10% of days or nights in current climate of that region and season. 2 Cold days or cold nights are defined as the temperature below which 10% of days or nights are recorded in current climate of that region or season. 3 A Heavy event is defined as a daily rainfall total which exceeds the threshold that is exceeded on 5% of rainy days in current the climate of that region and season. 2
3 Other Regional Climate Change Information GCMS do not have a fine enough resolution to account for Small Islands like those of Cape Verde, and so projections are based on calculations over ocean surface and do not account for the physical influences of the Islands land surface (Christensen et al., 2007). Climate models suffer from significant errors in simulating the position of the Inter tropical Convergence Zone in the Tropical Atlantic (Christensen et al., 2007), causing significant systematic errors in the rainfall simulated in this region, and increased uncertainty associated with projected climate changes. Tropical cyclones are poorly captured by GCMs and thus potential changes in intensity and tracks of tropical cyclones in the future are very uncertain. Whilst evidence indicates that tropical cyclones are likely to become, on the whole, more intense under a warmer climate as a result of higher sea surface temperatures, there is great uncertainty in changes in frequency, and changes to storm tracks and their interactions with other features of climate variability (such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation) which introduces uncertainty at the regional scale (Christensen et al., 2007). Uncertainty in potential changes in tropical cyclone contributes to uncertainties in future wet season rainfall. The islands of are likely to be vulnerable to sea level rise. Sea level in this region is projected by climate models to rise by the following levels 4 by the 2090s, relative to sea level: o 0.13 to 0.43m under SRES B1 o 0.16 to 0.53m under SRES A1B o 0.18 to 0.56m under SRES A2 For further information on climate projections, see Christensen et al. (2007) IPCC Working Group I Report: The Physical Science Basis, Chapter 11 (Regional Climate projections): Section 11.9 (Small Islands), and Section 11.2 (Africa). 4 Taken from the IPCC Working group I (The Physical Science Basis): Chapter 10 (Global Climate Projections) (Meehl et al., 2007). Regional sea level projections are estimated by applying regional adjustments (Fig 10.32, p813) to projected global mean sea level rise from 14 AR4 models. 3
4 Data Summary Observed Mean Observed Trend Projected changes by the Projected changes by the 2060s Projected changes by the 2030s 2090s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max Temperature ( C) (change in C per decade) Change in C Change in C Change in C A Annual * A1B B A NDJ A1B B A FMA A1B B A MJJ * A1B B A ASO * A1B B Precipitation (mm per month) (change in mm per decade) Change in mm per month Change in mm per month Change in mm per month A Annual A1B B A NDJ * A1B B A FMA A1B B A MJJ A1B B A ASO A1B B Precipitation (%) (mm per month) (change in % per decade) % Change % Change % Change A Annual A1B B A NDJ * A1B B A FMA A1B B A MJJ A1B B A ASO A1B B
5 Observed Mean Observed Trend Projected changes by the Projected changes by the 2060s Projected changes by the 2030s 2090s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max % Frequency Change in frequency per decade Future % frequency Future % frequency Frequency of Hot Days (TX90p) A2 **** **** **** Annual **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** NDJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** FMA **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** MJJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** ASO **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** Frequency of Hot Nights (TN90p) A2 **** **** **** Annual **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** NDJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** FMA **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** MJJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** ASO **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** Frequency of Cold Days (TX10p) A2 **** **** **** Annual **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** NDJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** FMA **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** MJJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** ASO **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** Frequency of Cold Nights (TN10p) A2 **** **** **** Annual **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** NDJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** FMA **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** MJJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** ASO **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** ****
6 Observed Mean Observed Trend Projected changes by the 2030s Projected changes by the 2060s Projected changes by the 2090s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max % total rainfall falling in Heavy Events (R95pct) % Change in % per decade Change in % Change in % A2 **** **** **** Annual **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** NDJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** FMA **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** MJJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** ASO **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** Maximum 1 day rainfall (RX1day) mm Change in mm per decade Change in mm Change in mm A2 **** **** **** Annual **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** NDJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** FMA **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** MJJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** ASO **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** Maximum 5 day Rainfall (RX5day) mm Change in mm per decade Change in mm Change in mm A2 **** **** **** Annual **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** NDJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** FMA **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** MJJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** ASO **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** (* indicates that the linear trend is statistically significant, **** indicates that insufficient data is available to calculate values.) 6
7 Figure 1: Trends in annual and seasonal mean temperature for the recent past and projected future. All values shown are anomalies, relative to the mean climate. Black curves show the mean of observed data from 1960 to 2006, Brown curves show the median (solid line) and range (shading) of model simulations of recent climate across an ensemble of 15 models. Coloured lines from 2006 onwards show the median (solid line) and range (shading) of the ensemble projections of climate under three emissions scenarios. Coloured bars on the right-hand side of the projections summarise the range of mean climates simulated by the 15 models for each emissions scenario. 7
8 Figure 2: Spatial patterns of projected change in mean annual and seasonal temperature for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. All values are anomalies relative to the mean climate of In each grid box, the central value gives the ensemble median and the values in the upper and lower corners give the ensemble maximum and minimum. 8
9 Figure 3: Trends in monthly precipitation for the recent past and projected future. All values shown are anomalies, relative to the mean climate. See Figure 1 for details. 9
10 Figure 4: Spatial patterns of projected change in monthly precipitation for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. All values are anomalies relative to the mean climate of See Figure 2 for details. 10
11 Figure 5: Trends in monthly precipitation for the recent past and projected future. All values shown are percentage anomalies, relative to the mean climate. See Figure 1 for details. 11
12 Figure 6: Spatial patterns of projected change in monthly precipitation for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. All values are percentage anomalies relative to the mean climate of See Figure 2 for details. 12
13 Figure 7: Trends in Hot-day frequency for the recent past and projected future. See Figure 1 for details. 13
14 Figure 8: Spatial patterns of projected change in Hot-day frequency for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. See Figure 2 for details. 14
15 Figure 9: Trends in hot-night frequency for the recent past and projected future. See Figure 1 for details. 15
16 Figure 10: Spatial patterns of projected change in hot-night frequency for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. See Figure 2 for details. 16
17 Figure 11: Trends in cold-day frequency for the recent past and projected future. See Figure 1 for details. 17
18 Figure 12: Spatial patterns of projected change in cold-day frequency for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. See Figure 2 for details. 18
19 Figure 13: Trends in cold-night frequency for the recent past and projected future. See Figure 1 for details. 19
20 Figure 14: Spatial patterns of projected change in cold-night frequency for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. See Figure 2 for details. 20
21 Figure 15: Trends in the proportion of precipitation falling in heavy events for the recent past and projected future. All values shown are anomalies, relative to the mean climate. See Figure 1 for details. 21
22 Figure 16: Spatial patterns of projected change in the proportion of precipitation falling in heavy events for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. All values are anomalies relative to the mean climate of See Figure 2 for details. 22
23 Figure 17: Trends in maximum 1-day rainfall for the recent past and projected future. All values shown are anomalies, relative to the mean climate. See Figure 1 for details. 23
24 Figure 18: Spatial patterns of maximum 1-day rainfall for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. All values are anomalies relative to the mean climate of See Figure 2 for details. 24
25 Figure 19: Trends in maximum 5-day rainfall for the recent past and projected future. All values shown are anomalies, relative to the mean climate. See Figure 1 for details. 25
26 Figure 20: Spatial patterns of projected change in maximum 5-day rainfall for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. All values are anomalies relative to the mean climate of See Figure 2 for details. 26
Suriname. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Suriname C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
Antigua and Barbuda. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Antigua and Barbuda C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Cuba. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Cuba C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
St Lucia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles St Lucia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
Mozambique. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Mozambique C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
Grenada. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
Zambia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Zambia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
Malawi. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Malawi C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
What is happening to the Jamaican climate?
What is happening to the Jamaican climate? Climate Change and Jamaica: Why worry? Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM) Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona Part 1 RAIN A FALL, BUT DUTTY
Future extreme precipitation events in the Southwestern US: climate change and natural modes of variability
Future extreme precipitation events in the Southwestern US: climate change and natural modes of variability Francina Dominguez Erick Rivera Fernandez Hsin-I Chang Christopher Castro AGU 2010 Fall Meeting
FUTURE CARIBBEAN CLIMATES FROM STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING
FUTURE CARIBBEAN CLIMATES FROM STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING Arnoldo Bezanilla Morlot Center For Atmospheric Physics Institute of Meteorology, Cuba The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Presented by R.K. Pachauri, IPCC Chair and Bubu Jallow, WG 1 Vice Chair Nairobi, 6 February
Current and future climate of the Cook Islands. Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program Penrhyn Pukapuka Nassau Suwarrow Rakahanga Manihiki N o r t h e r n C o o k I s l a nds S o u t h e Palmerston r n C o o k I s l
Funded by the National Communications Support Programme (NCSP) and the UK Department for International Development (DfID).
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Documentation C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Observed Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty
Observed Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty David R. Easterling National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina Overview Some examples of observed climate
Climate Variability and Change Past, Present and Future An Overview
Climate Variability and Change Past, Present and Future An Overview Dr Jim Salinger National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Auckland, New Zealand INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON REDUCING VULNERABILITY
8.1.2 Climate Projections
Chapter 8 Nauru 167 8.1 Climate Summary 8.1.1 Current Climate Over the past half century it is likely that there has been a warming air temperature trend at Nauru which is partly associated with warming
Climate change and variability -
Climate change and variability - Current capabilities - a synthesis of IPCC AR4 (WG1) Pete Falloon, Manager Impacts Model Development, Met Office Hadley Centre WMO CaGM/SECC Workshop, Orlando, 18 November
How Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather. Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK
Teleconnections How Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK Teleconnections Connectedness of large-scale weather patterns across the world If you poke
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE
The Pennsylvania Observer
The Pennsylvania Observer April 2, 2010 March 2010 Pennsylvania Weather Recap Prepared by: Katelyn Johnson March did come in as a lion cub this year. The 1 st proved to be a calm day; however most of Pennsylvania
Climate Risk Profile for Samoa
Climate Risk Profile for Samoa Report Prepared by Wairarapa J. Young Samoa Meteorology Division March, 27 Summary The likelihood (i.e. probability) components of climate-related risks in Samoa are evaluated
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño
Current Climate Science and Climate Scenarios for Florida
Current Climate Science and Climate Scenarios for Florida Daniel Bader and Vivien Gornitz Water Utilities and Climate Change Workshop Palm Beach County Water Utilities/ Water Research Foundation June 10,
2015: A YEAR IN REVIEW F.S. ANSLOW
2015: A YEAR IN REVIEW F.S. ANSLOW 1 INTRODUCTION Recently, three of the major centres for global climate monitoring determined with high confidence that 2015 was the warmest year on record, globally.
Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Southern California and the Western U.S.
Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Southern California and the Western U.S. Sam Iacobellis and Dan Cayan Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego Sponsors: NOAA RISA
1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Impacts Assessment
1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Impacts Assessment Although the variability of weather and associated shifts in the frequency and magnitude of climate events were not available from the
Future climate change in the Antilles: Regional climate, tropical cyclones and sea states
Future climate change in the Antilles: Regional climate, tropical cyclones and sea states Ali Belmadani Météo-France Antilles-Guiana (DIRAG), Martinique Acknowledgements: P. Palany, R. Pilon, F. Chauvin,
Chapter outline. Reference 12/13/2016
Chapter 2. observation CC EST 5103 Climate Change Science Rezaul Karim Environmental Science & Technology Jessore University of science & Technology Chapter outline Temperature in the instrumental record
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic NiZo Index
Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC
Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC This threat overview relies on projections of future climate change in the Mekong Basin for the period 2045-2069 compared to a baseline of 1980-2005.
Climate Change Scenarios 2030s
Climate Change Scenarios 2030s Ashwini Kulkarni ashwini@tropmet.res.in K Krishna Kumar, Ashwini Kulkarni, Savita Patwardhan, Nayana Deshpande, K Kamala, Koteswara Rao Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology,
The Climate System and Climate Models. Gerald A. Meehl National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado
The Climate System and Climate Models Gerald A. Meehl National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado The climate system includes all components of the physical earth system that affect weather
Jill Key. Chapter 6 Kiribati
Jill Key Chapter 6 Kiribati 113 6.1 Climate Summary 6.1.1 Current Climate Warming trends are evident in both annual and half-year mean air temperatures at Tarawa from 1950. At Kiritmati, in eastern Kiribati,
Trends in the Character of Hurricanes and their Impact on Heavy Rainfall across the Carolinas
Trends in the Character of Hurricanes and their Impact on Heavy Rainfall across the Carolinas Chip Konrad Carolina Integrated Science and Assessments (CISA) The Southeast Regional Climate Center Department
Climate Profile for the Cayman Islands
Climate Profile for the Cayman Islands Variability, Trends and Projections Prepared by Climate Studies Group, Mona The University of the West Indies For Smith Warner International Ltd June 2014 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Current and future climate of Vanuatu. Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program Hiu Torres Islands Vanua Lava Gaua Banks Islands Espiritu Santo Malekula Ambae Épi Maéwo Pentecost Ambrym Shepherd Islands Éfate
FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS IN ASIA
FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS IN ASIA AKIO KITOH, MASAHIRO HOSAKA, YUKIMASA ADACHI, KENJI KAMIGUCHI Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan It is anticipated
Observations and projections of extreme events. Carolina Vera CIMA/CONICET-Univ. of Buenos Aires, Argentina
Observations and projections of extreme events Carolina Vera CIMA/CONICET-Univ. of Buenos Aires, Argentina Overview of SREX Chapter 3 More literature: ~ 900 references, ~ 75% of these published since AR4
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University August 4, 2017 July largely held true to forecast, although it ended with the start of one of the most extreme
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
Manfred A. Lange Energy, Environment and Water Research Center The Cyprus Institute. M. A. Lange 11/26/2008 1
Manfred A. Lange Energy, Environment and Water Research Center The Cyprus Institute M. A. Lange 11/26/2008 1 Background and Introduction Mediterranean Climate Past and Current Conditions Tele-Connections
TROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL INTERACTIONS
Notes of the tutorial lectures for the Natural Sciences part by Alice Grimm Fourth lecture TROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL INTERACTIONS Anomalous tropical SST Anomalous convection Anomalous latent heat source Anomalous
Projection of climate change in Cyprus using a selection of regional climate models
Projection of climate change in Cyprus using a selection of regional climate models C. Giannakopoulos, G. Lemesios, M. Petrakis, Th. Kopania, N. Roukounakis National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece
Karonga Climate Profile: Full Technical Version
Karonga Climate Profile: Full Technical Version Prepared by: University of Cape Town November 2017 For enquiries regarding this Climate Profile, please contact Lisa van Aardenne (lisa@csag.uct.ac.za) or
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through
I C P A C. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2017
Bulletin Issue October 2017 I C P A C IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2017 1. INTRODUCTION This bulletin reviews the September 2017
A Study of the Uncertainty in Future Caribbean Climate Using the PRECIS Regional Climate Model
A Study of the Uncertainty in Future Caribbean Climate Using the PRECIS Regional Climate Model by Abel Centella and Arnoldo Bezanilla Institute of Meteorology, Cuba & Kenrick R. Leslie Caribbean Community
Weather Atmospheric condition in one place during a limited period of time Climate Weather patterns that an area typically experiences over a long
Weather Atmospheric condition in one place during a limited period of time Climate Weather patterns that an area typically experiences over a long period of time Many factors influence weather & climate
WHAT CAN MAPS TELL US ABOUT THE GEOGRAPHY OF ANCIENT GREECE? MAP TYPE 1: CLIMATE MAPS
WHAT CAN MAPS TELL US ABOUT THE GEOGRAPHY OF ANCIENT GREECE? MAP TYPE 1: CLIMATE MAPS MAP TYPE 2: PHYSICAL AND/OR TOPOGRAPHICAL MAPS MAP TYPE 3: POLITICAL MAPS TYPE 4: RESOURCE & TRADE MAPS Descriptions
Chapter 3 East Timor (Timor-Leste)
Chapter 3 East Timor (Timor-Leste) 49 3.1 Climate Summary 3.1.1 Current Climate Despite missing temperature records for Dili Airport, it is probable that over the past half century there has been a warming
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through
What is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC WG1 FAQ What is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014
Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June
Bell Work. REVIEW: Our Planet Earth Page 29 Document A & B Questions
9.12.16 Bell Work REVIEW: Our Planet Earth Page 29 Document A & B Questions Intro to Climate & Weather https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhgyoa70q7y Weather vs. Climate Video Climate & Weather 3.1 Weather
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
Summer 2018 Southern Company Temperature/Precipitation Forecast
Scott A. Yuknis High impact weather forecasts, climate assessment and prediction. 14 Boatwright s Loop Plymouth, MA 02360 Phone/Fax 508.927.4610 Cell: 508.813.3499 ClimateImpact@comcast.net Climate Impact
Appendix 1: UK climate projections
Appendix 1: UK climate projections The UK Climate Projections 2009 provide the most up-to-date estimates of how the climate may change over the next 100 years. They are an invaluable source of information
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION There is now unequivocal evidence from direct observations of a warming of the climate system (IPCC, 2007). Despite remaining uncertainties, it is now clear that the upward trend
Weather Atmospheric condition in one place during a limited period of time Climate Weather patterns that an area typically experiences over a long
Weather Atmospheric condition in one place during a limited period of time Climate Weather patterns that an area typically experiences over a long period of time Many factors influence weather & climate
Fig P3. *1mm/day = 31mm accumulation in May = 92mm accumulation in May Jul
Met Office 3 month Outlook Period: May July 2014 Issue date: 24.04.14 Fig P1 3 month UK outlook for precipitation in the context of the observed annual cycle The forecast presented here is for May and
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
The Effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation On Atlantic Hurricanes Michael Barak-NYAS-Mentors: Dr. Yochanan Kushnir, Jennifer Miller
The Effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation On Atlantic Hurricanes Michael Barak-NYAS-Mentors: Dr. Yochanan Kushnir, Jennifer Miller Abstract Tropical cyclone behavior in the Gulf of Mexico (GM) and East
Nuku alofa. Chapter 14 Tonga. The contributions of Ofa Fa anunu and Mele Lakai from the Tonga Meteorological Service are gratefully acknowledged
Nuku alofa Chapter 14 Tonga The contributions of Ofa Fa anunu and Mele Lakai from the Tonga Meteorological Service are gratefully acknowledged 215 Introduction This chapter provides a brief description
Chapter 2 Cook Islands
Chapter 2 Cook Islands 21 2.1 Climate Summary 2.1.1 Current Climate Warming trends are evident in annual and half-year maximum and minimum air temperatures at Rarotonga (Southern Cook Islands) for the
WATER VAPOR FLUXES OVER EQUATORIAL CENTRAL AFRICA
WATER VAPOR FLUXES OVER EQUATORIAL CENTRAL AFRICA INTRODUCTION A good understanding of the causes of climate variability depend, to the large extend, on the precise knowledge of the functioning of the
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012 Issued: 6 th August 2012 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
Climate change and variability -
Climate change and variability - Current capabilities - a synthesis of IPCC AR4 (WG1) Pete Falloon, Manager Impacts Model Development, Met Office Hadley Centre WMO CaGM/SECC Workshop, Orlando, 18 November
World geography 3200/3202 Unit 2 review
World geography 3200/3202 Unit 2 review 1. Does this statement use the terms revolve & rotate correctly? "Saturn revolves on its axis while several moons rotate around it." 2. Does this statement use the
Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX. Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio
Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Outline A Look Back At 2014 Spring 2015 So Far El Niño Update Climate Prediction
Name: Regents Earth Science. Weather and Climate - Review Questions
Name: Regents Earth Science Weather and Climate - Review Questions Date: Thayer - 279 1. People sometimes release substances into the atmosphere to increase the probability of rain by A) raising the air
[State of the Jamaican Climate 2012]
![[State of the Jamaican Climate 2012]](/thumbs/81/83864622.jpg "[State of the Jamaican Climate 2012]")
State of the Jamaican Climate 2012 [State of the Jamaican Climate 2012] Information for Resilience Building PREPARED BY: i P a g e CLIMATE STUDIES GROUP MONA DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS UNIVERISTY OF THE WEST
"STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR "
"STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR 2001 2010" ESPERANZA O. CAYANAN, Ph.D. Chief, Climatology & Agrometeorology R & D Section Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño
Rainfall Patterns across Puerto Rico: The Rate of Change
Rainfall Patterns across Puerto Rico: The 1980-2013 Rate of Change Odalys Martínez-Sánchez Lead Forecaster and Climate Team Leader WFO San Juan UPRRP Environmental Sciences PhD Student Introduction Ways
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
ARUBA CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY 2017 PRECIPITATION
ARUBA CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY 2017 PRECIPITATION The total amount of rainfall recorded at Reina Beatrix International Airport for the year 2017 was 391.0 mm. This is 17.1 % below normal ( Figure 1 ). During
Our climate system is based on the location of hot and cold air mass regions and the atmospheric circulation created by trade winds and westerlies.
CLIMATE REGIONS Have you ever wondered why one area of the world is a desert, another a grassland, and another a rainforest? Or have you wondered why are there different types of forests and deserts with
Review of medium to long term coastal risks associated with British Energy sites: Climate Change Effects - Final Report
Review of medium to long term coastal risks associated with British Energy sites: Climate Change Effects - Final Report Prepared for British Energy Generation Ltd Authors: Reviewed by: Authorised for issue
Nairobi Climate Profile: Full Technical Version
Nairobi Climate Profile: Full Technical Version Prepared by: University of Cape Town November 2017 For enquiries regarding this Climate Profile, please contact Lisa van Aardenne (lisa@csag.uct.ac.za) 2
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College December 5, 2017 Summary: November was relatively cool and wet from central California throughout most of
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University November 5, 2016 After a year where we were seemingly off by a month in terms of temperatures (March
ICPAC. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, May 2017
s` ICPAC Bulletin Issue June 2017 Issue Number: ICPAC/02/302 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, May 2017 For referencing within this bulletin, the Greater Horn of Africa
Predicting climate extreme events in a user-driven context
www.bsc.es Oslo, 6 October 2015 Predicting climate extreme events in a user-driven context Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes BSC Earth Sciences Department BSC Earth Sciences Department What Environmental forecasting
Energy Systems, Structures and Processes Essential Standard: Analyze patterns of global climate change over time Learning Objective: Differentiate
Energy Systems, Structures and Processes Essential Standard: Analyze patterns of global climate change over time Learning Objective: Differentiate between weather and climate Global Climate Focus Question
Refer to FIGURE 1 which shows how temperatures over a city and its surrounding areas differ. This is an example of microclimate.
CLIMATE & WEATHER Checklist Make sure you know how to: Describe global air circulation Explain formation and effects of tropical cyclones Identify and explain weather patterns over southern Africa Interpret
IMPACTS OF A WARMING ARCTIC
The Earth s Greenhouse Effect Most of the heat energy emitted from the surface is absorbed by greenhouse gases which radiate heat back down to warm the lower atmosphere and the surface. Increasing the
Page 1 of 5 Home research global climate enso effects Research Effects of El Niño on world weather Precipitation Temperature Tropical Cyclones El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world. The
THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)
THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) refers to cyclical variations in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. A detailed summary of the PDO is given in D Aleo
Anibare Bay. Chapter 8 Nauru
Anibare Bay Chapter 8 Nauru The contributions of Andrew Kaierua, Russ Kun, Franklin Teimitsi and Douglas Audoa from the Department of Commerce, Industry and Environment are gratefully acknowledged 129
Fire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change. Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015
Fire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015 Outline Weather and Fire Risk Environmental conditions leading to
Introduction. Observed Local Trends. Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones. Projections for the Philippines. Temperature Rainfall
PAGASA-DOST ntroduction Observed Local Trends Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones Projections for the Philippines Temperature Rainfall Climate Change ssue ncreased use of fossil fuel Global Warming
What is Climate? Understanding and predicting climatic changes are the basic goals of climatology.
What is Climate? Understanding and predicting climatic changes are the basic goals of climatology. Climatology is the study of Earth s climate and the factors that affect past, present, and future climatic
THE CANADIAN CENTRE FOR CLIMATE MODELLING AND ANALYSIS
THE CANADIAN CENTRE FOR CLIMATE MODELLING AND ANALYSIS As Canada s climate changes, and weather patterns shift, Canadian climate models provide guidance in an uncertain future. CANADA S CLIMATE IS CHANGING
Research on Climate of Typhoons Affecting China
Research on Climate of Typhoons Affecting China Xu Ming Shanghai Typhoon Institute November,25 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Typhoon disasters in China 3. Climatology and climate change of typhoon affecting