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1 Climate change and variability - Current capabilities - a synthesis of IPCC AR4 (WG1) Pete Falloon, Manager Impacts Model Development, Met Office Hadley Centre WMO CaGM/SECC Workshop, Orlando, 18 November 2008

2 Current capabilities climate modelling (IPCC, 2007) Global Atmosphere Ocean GCMs (~100km, centennial) [Earth System Models] [Seasonal and decadal forecast models] Regional RCMs (~25km, centennial) statistical downscaling Uncertainty? Multi-model ensembles (e.g. AR4 models) Emissions scenarios (e.g. IPCC SRES) Perturbed physics ensembles (~300 members)

3 Africa current climate skill IPCC AR4 models: precipitation RCMs improve on GCM skill (tropics, West & South Africa) AGCMs good skill for C20th precipitation and temperature Significant systematic errors (e.g. Sahel variability & droughts, MJO) Missing feedbacks (dust, vegetation, LUC) Precipitation spread and warm bias in Indian Ocean Few studies of extremes

4 Africa future climate confidence IPCC AR4 models Consensus on annual warming Agreement in annual precipitation: Mediterranean, N Sahara (DJF/MAM), W Coast, S Africa, E Africa (DJF/MAM/SON), Seychelles (DJF), Mauritius (JJA) Confidence in extremes: temperature, precipitation (East, West, South) Precipitation uncertain Sahel, Guinea coast, S Sahara, West & East (JJA), South (DJF) Few downscaling studies (esp. Indian Ocean) Sea level rise, storm surges, cyclones uncertain

5 Asia current climate skill IPCC AR4 models: SE Asia annual cycles Precipitation: South East (DJF/JJA), South, Central Small temperature biases (South, Indian Ocean) Cold and wet bias in all regions/seasons, particularly North, Tibet (DJF/MAM), East Lack of observations (Tibet) Precipitation variability: South East Precipitation spread, warm/dry bias, systematic errors (ENSO, MJO): Indian Ocean

6 Asia future climate confidence IPCC AR4 models Consensus on warming Precipitation: North/East/South East/W Central (JJA), Tibet, Central (DJF), Indian Ocean Seychelles/Maldives (DJF) Some extremes: Temperature East, Indian Ocean; Precipitation South, East, South East Lack of regional analysis; climate-mode RCM studies, extremes Precipitation spread: South, South East, Tibet (JJA), East (DJF) Systematic errors: ENSO, monsoon, cyclones, extremes, complex topography Indian Ocean downscaling & sea level rise

7 South America current climate skill IPCC AR4 models: precipitation Small temperature biases: South South American Monsoon AGCMs RCMs improve on GCM precipitation Temperature biases cold: Amazon; warm: 30 o S, Central (SON) Precipitation biases wet: North, Uruguay, Patagonia; dry: Amazon, South Systematic errors: weak ITCZ Few, short, RCM studies, poor if AGCM driven

8 South America future climate confidence IPCC AR4 models Agreement on warming, especially South Precipitation: Tierra del Fuego (JJA), SE South (DJF), parts of North (Ecuador, Peru, N SE Brazil) Temperature extremes (all regions/seasons) Precipitation extremes: dry - Central, wet Amazon (DJF/MAM) Significant systematic errors: variability, ENSO, carbon cycle, land use change, Andes orography Small precipitation signal:noise Amazon, North, South (seasons) Little research on extremes

9 North America current climate skill IPCC AR4 models: temperature Temperature: North, Caribbean, North Pacific Precipitation: North, extremes (West USA) RCMs improve on GCMs: North, Central, Caribbean Average error Temperature: cold (Central), warm (North Pacific) Precipitation and spread: Central, Caribbean, North Pacific, North in some seasons (W, N) RCMs: formulation, few (Central), short runs (North), GCM biases Typical error

10 IPCC AR4 models North America future climate confidence Confidence in warming, extremes (W USA, Central, Caribbean, North Pacific) Precipitation: North, Central, Caribbean (G. Antilles summer) Snow depth (California, Rockies) Systematic errors: complex terrain, ENSO, NAO, AO, MOC Precipitation: South, o N, Caribbean RCM skill, lack of studies (Caribbean, North Pacific) Sea level rise, cyclones, few studies of extremes

11 SW Pacific current climate skill IPCC AR4 models: precipitation Climate/variability: Australia, South Pacific Broad ENSO patterns: New Zealand region RCMs better temperature for Australia Precipitation extremes: Australia Average error Lack of detailed validation Systematic errors: 50 o S pressure bias, monsoon, SPCZ, ENSO Temperature biases: warm (oceans, South Pacific, SE/SW Australia); cold (Australia) Typical error Precipitation biases: wet (Australia)

12 SW Pacific future climate confidence IPCC AR4 models General agreement on annual warming Precipitation: S Australia (JJA/SON), SW Australia (JJA), S New Zealand Extremes: temperature, precipitation & drought (Australia) Systematic errors: ENSO, monsoon Large warming spread: Australia (DJF) Large precipitation spread most of the region Extremes, cyclones, winds: few studies Sea level rise/downscaling small islands

13 Europe current climate skill IPCC AR4 models: pressure C20th temperature changes Area average precipitation RCMs improve on GCM precipitation and temperature Large temperature bias/range: cold - North (DJF), warm South (JJA), excessive variability Precipitation biases: wet North (SON/MAM), dry East, South Observational uncertainty: precipitation North Range in extreme temperature biases

14 Europe future climate confidence Temperature: annual, winter (North), summer (South) IPCC AR4 models Precipitation: North (DJF), South/Central (JJA) Extremes: temperature most regions, precipitation North (DJF), Central/South (JJA) Snow Uncertainties: circulation, MOC, variability, water/energy cycles Large seasonal temperature spread Large precipitation spread: annual, summer, complex topography Extremes: temperature Central (JJA), precipitation, winds

15 Conclusions Confidence in annual warming, uncertainty in regional (seasonal) precipitation Remaining issues with variability NAO, AO, MJO, ENSO, Sahel, MOC, monsoons, ITCZ, SPCZ Incomplete/missing processes and feedbacks Dust, vegetation, carbon cycle, complex topography, water/energy cycles Observations Lacking: Tibet, Northern Europe Signal/noise, uncertainty not considered Lack of studies of extremes, (time) downscaling in some regions

16 Conclusions & further work Largest present-day median climate biases: ~2K temperature Sahel, N Europe, Tibet, E Asia Precipitation Tibet (+110%), W North America (+65%), S Africa (+35%) Lowest future annual precipitation confidence (<2/3 models agree on sign): Central Europe, Central USA, Sahel, Amazon, Tibet/E Asia, Central/E Australia Lowest future temperature confidence (30y lead, 10y average signal:noise < 2)*: Northern North America, Northern Europe What do these uncertainties mean for impacts & adaptation (hedging/confidence)? Future tasks: Review IPCC AR4 working group 2 (Impacts) capabilities Review post-ipcc science *Hawkins & Sutton, BAMS, submitted (2008)

17 Uncertain: Regional climate change Projected precipitation changes 2090s (% relative to ) White: <2/3 of models agree on sign of change (+ or -) Stippled: >90% of models agree on sign of change

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