Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences

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1 Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences University Of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

2

3 1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun 1-Jul 8-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 5-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug 2-Sep 9-Sep 16-Sep 23-Sep 30-Sep Inches of Precipitation 25 Accumulation of Precipitation (April 1 Sept 30) Top Yielding Years: 1998, 2004, 2009, Normal Accumulated Precipitation 2004 Accumulated Precipitation 2009 Accumulated Precipitation 2015 Accumulated Precipitation 1998 Accumulated Precipitation

4 Inches of Precipitation 25 Accumulation of Precipitation (April 1 Sept 30) Low Yielding Years: 2002, 2006, Normal Accumulated Precipitation 2012 Accumulated Precipitation 2006 Accumulated Precipitation 2002 Accumulated Precipitation

5

6 When it comes to yields start watching the jet stream

7 So what types of weather patterns shut off the rain and bring in the heat? Flow of the Jet Stream Trough L H L Ridge Block storm systems Move heat north

8 H July 3, 2012

9 Markets move most when weather impacts this region in July and August.

10 Fear that June s heat and central US dryness would continue into July. Storms tend to ride around the ridge.

11 Forecast made during the the 3 rd week of June suggested a major breakdown in the ridge for the first week of July! Trough of cold air Trough of cold air 200% of avg First two weeks of July

12 Total Accumulation from August

13 Were we able to forecast this hot and wet summer?

14 From June 2, 2016 Governor's Ag Summit

15 Weather Prediction Most commonly used weather forecast models *I have left out the European Model (ECMWF) because it costs $$ to access these graphics and data. High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR) 0-18 hour forecast (1 hour time steps) Very high resolution, US only Updated every hour Great for timing when precipitation will arrive and same day severe weather prediction North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) 0-84 hour forecasts (3.5 days) 0-36 hrs (1-hour time steps) hrs (3-hour time steps) Updated every 6 hours High resolution, North America Only Great for short term weather forecasting for timing and amount of rain snow, temperature fluctuations Global Forecast System Model (GFS) hour forecasts (16 days) hrs (3-hour time steps) hrs (6 hour time steps) hrs (12 hour time steps) Updated Every 6 hours, Global Great for looking 2-weeks out for big picture weather events

16 Weather Forecasting: Tools of the Trade

17 Weather Forecasting Using Numerical Weather Prediction Indicates which weather model is currently being displayed. In this case, the Global Forecasting Systems (GFS) Model. Weather forecast display area. Click here to change the geographic location displayed Other Model Options: NAM (1-84 hours) higher resolution, but only for the US CFS (out to 1 month) Time the model was initialized. 12Z is 4AM local time PST. The GFS model produces a forecast for every 6 hours out to 384 hours (16 days). Each button is for a different forecast hour. Click here see all precipitation products (i.e., total accumulated rain, total snowfall, MSLP and precip type etc.) Click here see all surface wind speed and direction, winds near 1 mile AGL, MSLP anomalies. Click here see all upper level winds (i.e., jet stream maps), mid-level vorticity and height anomalies. Click here surface and near surface temperatures and temperature anomalies

18 World Record Hail Vivian, SD 2010 Look for Radar Reflectivity Values greater than 60 dbz

19 Severe Weather Threat Straight Line Winds

20 Local Stresses - Wind Watch out for the bow echo!!

21 Shelf Cloud Precedes the Bow Echo Outflow Inflow

22 Severe Weather Threat Tornadoes

23 Hook Echo Hook echoes are typically found on the SW side of large supercellsc

24 Weather Radar Best Sources Best: Radar Scope (app $9)

25 Forecasting flood!

26

27 smoke

28 H

29

30

31 Change is coming This is also on my Ag_Wx links page.

32 What are the other big players this winter?

33 What is El Niño and La Niña? Normal La Niña au/climate/enso/hist ory/ln /three-phases-of- ENSO.shtml El Niño

34 Typical Weather Pattern for La Niña (NOAA)

35 But is this La Niña Strong?

36 Nov 15, 2010 Summer 2012 US Drought South American Drought (Strong La Niña) Biofuel Mandate

37 La Niña typically causes drought and heat stress for southern growing regions

38 Early August 2016 Water Storage (% saturated)

39 Nov 25, 2016 Water Storage (% saturated)

40 Source: Observations NOAA, Forecast Agrible, Inc. Weak La Niña Projection for Brazil Soybean Yields ~45-46 bpa 102+ Million Metric Tons

41 What are others saying about the US Winter Forecast?

42 Source NOAA

43 December February Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts

44 NOAA Official Winter Outlook: Temperature

45 NOAA Official Winter Outlook: Precipitation

46 Agrible s Nov Jan Forecast: 1. Near average temps with the potential for a cool bias (low probability of winter being well above average like last year) 2. Near average precipitation, potentially wetter than average. 3. Expect and active freeze/thaw cycle. What to watch: 1. High Latitude Blocking Over Canada (high air pressure) 2. Position of the Polar Vortex!! Temperature Precipitation

47 Agrible s Feb - April Forecast: 1. Lower probability of cornbelt drought development 2. Potentially early Spring? What to watch: 1. More active severe weather. Published literature shows how La Niña or ENSO neutral conditions favor more early season severe weather and near average severe weather in central US Temperature 2. Another good year for yields? Precipitation

48 Strong Polar Vortex Cold Pocket of Air in Stratosphere Polar Vortex Cold Air Stays Concentrated Near the North Pole Polar Jet Stream

49 Weak Polar Vortex Warm Pocket of Air in Stratosphere Cold Air Spills South Introducing Arctic Air into the Mid-Latitudes Polar Vortex Polar Jet Stream Deep Trough in the Jet Stream

50 # of Days Length of the Frost Free Season (Huron, SD) Days 130 Days 100 Frost Free Season length 80 Poly. (Frost Free Season length) Mean Frost Free Season: May 8 Sept 29 Year ( )

51 Source: IPCC

52 Change in the # of Consecutive Dry Days

53 Change in the # of Hot Nights T > 70F

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