Future Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS)

Transcription

1 Future Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) Enabling Seamless Activities from Research to Operations to Service (R2O2S) for the benefits of Members Michel Jean President of CBS

2 The GDPFS Is organized as a three-level system to carry out functions at global, regional and national levels World Meteorological Centre (WMC) Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) (incl. Regional Climate Centre (RCC)) National Meteorological Centre (NMC) Cg-17 Side Event 2

3 Purpose of the GDPFS The GDPFS provides the core operational prediction capabilities and systems of WMO (operated by Members 191) Nowcasting (VSRF) 0-6h Numerical Weather Prediction & EPS 6h-15d Long-Range Forecasting Sub-seasonal to Longer Time Scales up to 2 years Emergency Response Activities for Nuclear and Non- Nuclear dispersion Specialised centres eg sand and dust-storm, tropical cyclone centres

4 The structure of Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System

5 GDPFS Operational System

6 GDPFS Layers R&D WIS Global Centers High-Quality Information WIGOS Regional Centers High-Quality & High-Res Information National Centers Very High- Res, Tailoring products A Future Urban Layer Verification Data & Impact Data

7 The GDPFS today test footer 7

8 The Manual on the GDPFS (WMO- No 485) Any advanced technological infrastructure needs a manual A WMO source of technical regulations for all operational dataprocessing and forecasting systems It includes the criteria for designation of operational centres and their operations Revised version endorsed at CBS-16. Additional new centre types designation (e.g. RSMC for nonnuclear ERA) 8

9 New type of centres (examples) ASDF with CAS OWFV with JCOMM NTCP with CCl, CAS and WCRP 9

10 Observations and Technologies supporting GDPFS

11 How GDPFS relates to WIGOS and WIS WIGOS WIS GDPFS

12 Driving innovation in the GDPFS

13 How GDPFS relates to Research CAS Societal Challenges URBANIZATION HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WATER & AEROSOLS NEW TECHNOLOGIES & GHG Information System Seamless prediction in the CAS context considers all compartments of the Earth system as well as disciplines of the weather enterprise value chain (monitoring and observation, models, forecasting, dissemination and communication, perception and interpretation, decision- making, end-user products) to deliver tailor made weather information from minutes to months and from global to local.

14 A Seamless Services Production Chain User Driven Research Weather Climate Environmental Observational Systems Process description Dynamics - Predictability Data Assimilation Prediction from minutes to decades Ensemble Prediction Verification Postprocessing research Big Data Tailoring Observational capabilities Enhancement of Data Processing and Forecasting Systems Verification tools Automatized forecasting & early warning systems Various products specifically tailored to different user groups Strengthening NMHS capabilities

15 A Seamless Services Production Chain Filling the gap between research (R&D) and operations requires a move from a current linear model of transferring research to operations to an interactive model. This interactive path to value innovation requires: A continuous joint consultation of research and operations with the user community.

16 Plug-in of WMO interface 2.0 to GDPFS

17 CSIS and how it relates to Seamless GDPFS

18 Global infrastructure GPCLRFs GPCLRF & RCC inventory of GFCSrelevant climate data and products (ECVs) 165+ pp. Not discoverable or organized in systematic form RCCs

19 Global infrastructure GPCLRFs C3S portal into past, present and future ECVs globally WIS to catalogue all GDPFS for cascading system RCCs

20 The Vision

21 GDPFS Vision Vision: The GDPFS will be developed and expanded to cover seamlessly all timesacles from short to multiannual range (Cg 17, Resolution 11) Sustain and enhance quality and reliability of existing operational services incl ERA Dynamical monthly, seasonal and multi-annual products understood and integrated in National and regional services and informing adaptation to clim var & change and informing decisons retaled to GFCS priority areas and DRR ERA for non-nuclear hazards to reach same level of maturity as nuclear ERA

22 Seamless Prediction Essential support to decision making on all timescales Past climate Now Hours Days 1-week 1-month Seasonal Decadal Climate Confidence boundary Analysis of past weather observations to manage climate risks Eg. Agriculture: informs crop choice, planting to yield optimisation and minimise crop failure risk. Predicting routine and hazardous weather conditions. Public, emergency response, international Disaster Risk Reduction Monthly to decadal predictions - probability of drought, cold, hurricanes. Contingency planners, national and international humanitarian response, government and private infrastructure investment Global and regional climate predictions. Informs mitigation policy and adaptation choices. Impacts on water resources, heat stress, crops, infrastructure. Forecast lead-time

23 Future seamless GDPFS Common User Interface Platform Product Verification Rolling Review of User Requir. and R&D Seamless GDPFS Broaden Cascading Process (Timescale/ Applications) Designation of new-type of Centres Advances & science pullthrough to operations

24 The future GDPFS will Be an effective and adaptable monitoring and prediction system enabling Members and partners to make better-informed decisions Facilitate the provision of impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings through partnership and collaboration Do so through the sharing of weather, water, climate and related environmental data, products and services in a cost effective, timely and agile way, for the benefit of all WMO Members

25 In summary, the seamless GDPFS is WMO foundational activity addressing the data-processing and forecasting needs of the weather, climate, water and environmental services of its Members A framework for integrating all WMO data-processing and forecasting systems under a common regulatory and management framework An incentive for continuous innovation and integration with other technological endeavours

26 Thank you

27 Questions for discussion In a seamless GDPFS concept, encompassing weather, climate and water and related environment: 1. What WMO commission or other structure(s) would be appropriate for coordinating and integrating across the expanded scope of variables and timescales required of a seamless GDPFS? 2. Given the expanded number of types of centres and functions, how could/should the functions of these centres and their designations within the GDPFS be streamlined and harmonized? 3. What is the status of the user interface for defining and meeting end-use requirements and what are the key stakeholder forums for defining and meeting demand?