Performance and Verification of HWRF/HMON Ensemble Prediction System in 2017 Real time Parallel Experiment. Zhan Zhang, Weiguo Wang
|
|
|
- Benjamin Fleming
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 1 Performance and Verification of HWRF/HMON Ensemble Prediction System in 2017 Real time Parallel Experiment Zhan Zhang, Weiguo Wang and the EMC Hurricane Team Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, NCWCP, College Park, MD HFIP Annual Review Meeting, November 8, 2017
2 Background - Jet real time reservations for HWRF(1+20)/HMON(1+10) ENS - Real time parallel for one AL storm - Probabilistic guidance and mean track/intensity forecasts - Benefits from multi-model ensembles HWRF-ENS HMON-ENS Multi-model ENS Example of ENS Products Future plans Outline 2
3 2017 HWRF Ensemble Configuration Differences with 2017 HWRF operational configuration Less horizontal resolution: 27/9/3km vs. 18/6/2km Less vertical resolution: L43 vs. L75; No GSI due to lack of GDAS data IC/BC Perturbations (large scale): 20 member GEFS. Model Physics Perturbations (vortex scale): Stochastic Convective Trigger Perturbations in SAS: -50hPa to + 50hPa white noise ; Stochastic boundary layer height perturbations in PBL scheme, -20% to +20%; Stochastic Cd perturbation; Stochastic initial wind speed and position (TCVital) perturbations considering best track uncertainty; 3
4 Verification: HWRF-EPS vs Deterministic HWRF at AL RED: OPER GREEN: MEAN BLUE: CTNL 2016-Track 2017-Track 2016-Intensity 2016-Wind Bias 2017-Intensity 2017-Wind Bias 1. In the past years, HWRF EPS (at lowres) outperformed the deterministic operational model (at hires), but this year, the results are reversed; 2. As always, HWRF EPS produces better ensemble mean track/intensity forecasts than its own deterministic (control) system; 4
5 2017 HWRF Ensemble Configuration Conclusions The operational 2017 HWRF performed very well due to vertical resolution increase, data assimilation upgrades, and physics upgrades; Different results from HWRF EPS with 2017 season which had many more cycles with stronger storms ( 97/191 > 64 kts, 61/191 > 94 kts) as compared to the 2016 season; In future, need to run ensembles at similar resolutions as the operational configuration. 5
6 2017 HMON Ensemble Configuration Differences with the 2017 operational deterministic HMON model: 8% smaller domains to fit Jet runtime window Coupled to HYCOM ocean model IC/BC Perturbations (large scale): 10 member GEFS. Random initial wind speed and position (TCVital) perturbations considering best track uncertainty Multi-phys Options in members: Convection: BMJ, SAS, scale-aware SAS PBL: GFSPBL, EDMFPBL Land: GFDL, NOAH Microphys: Fer_hires, WSM6 Surface layer: use different z0 and zt values (Cd,Ch) 6
7 Physics options for coupled HMON ensemble members Domains CU PBL Land Cd,Ch MP Spec_adv 00 SAS GFSPBL NOAH ICOEF=2 Fer_hires No 01 D1: 431x431 Scale SAS GFSPBL NOAH ICOEF=2 Fer_hires No 02 BMJ GFSPBL NOAH ICOEF=2 Fer_hires No 03 D2: 219x191 BMJ GFSPBL GFDL ICOEF=2 Fer_hires Yes 04 SAS GFSPBL NOAH ICOEF=2 WSM6 No 05 D3: BMJ EDMF NOAH ICOEF=2 Fer_hires No 361x Scale_SAS EDMF GFDL ICOEF=2 Fer_hires 07 NZ=42 BMJ EDMF NOAH ICOEF=2 WSM Km Scale_SAS EDMF NOAH ICOEF=2 Fer_hires No 09 6 Km Scale_SAS GFSPBL NOAH ICOEF=6 Fer_hires Yes 2 Km 10 SAS GFSPBL NOAH ICOEF=6 Fer_hires No All ensemble members are ocean-coupled while the operational HMON is uncoupled in the NATL basin 7
8 Verification: HMON-EPS vs Deterministic HMON at AL Track Wind Bias Ensemble mean 8
9 Multi-Model EPS (HWMN+CTMN) Track Wind 2-model Pmin Bias 9
10 Products: HWRF-EPS Ensemble Spread 10
11 Products: HWRF-EPS Probabilistic Prediction Harvey 09L RI probability Irma 11L 11
12 Products: HWRF-EPS Swath plots Wind Speed at 10m Rainfall Swath 12
13 Future Plans HWRF/HMON based Ensemble Prediction System Use higher resolutions (same as deterministic model); Include data assimilation in ensembles; Improve representation of HWRF/HMON model error and initial uncertainties (SST); Develop more post-processed deterministic products: including median value of track/intensity, select best member to represent EPS; 13
14 Future Plans HWRF/HMON based Ensemble Prediction System Develop more probabilistic products, visualization of model variable uncertainty fields; Continue HWRF/HMON EPS real time demo, distribute track/intensity forecasts via a-deck files; Combined HWRF/HMON/COAMPS-TC multi ensemble system; Run 10 member HMON/HWRF-based EPS operationally in
Introduction to the HWRF-based Ensemble Prediction System
Introduction to the HWRF-based Ensemble Prediction System Zhan Zhang Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA/NWS, NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740 USA 2018 Hurricane WRF Tutorial, NCWCP, MD. January 23-25.
NCEP Operational Hurricane Modeling System. HWRF Performance Verification in 2016
1 NCEP Operational Hurricane Modeling System HWRF Performance Verification in 2016 The HWRF Team Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP NOAA/NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740, USA. Zhan Zhang, Avicha Mehra, Samuel
BASIN-SCALE HWRF: Evaluation of 2017 Real-Time Forecasts
BASIN-SCALE HWRF: Evaluation of 2017 Real-Time Forecasts HARVEY IRMA MARIA Ghassan Alaka1,2, Xuejin Zhang1,2, Gopal2, Frank Marks2, Mu-Chieh Ko1,2, Russell St. Fleur1,2 Acknowledgements: NOAA/NWS/EMC,
HMON (HNMMB): Development of a new Hurricane model for NWS/NCEP operations
1 HMON (HNMMB): Development of a new Hurricane model for NWS/NCEP operations Avichal Mehra, EMC Hurricane and Mesoscale Teams Environmental Modeling Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP HMON: A New Operational Hurricane
NCEP Operational Hurricane Modeling System. HWRF Performance Verification in 2015
1 NCEP Operational Hurricane Modeling System HWRF Performance Verification in 2015 The HWRF Team Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP NOAA/NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740, USA. Zhan Zhang, Samuel Trahan,
Advancements in Operations and Research on Hurricane Modeling and Ensemble Prediction System at EMC/NOAA
Advancements in Operations and Research on Hurricane Modeling and Ensemble Prediction System at EMC/NOAA Zhan Zhang and Vijay Tallapragada EMC/NCEP/NOAA/DOC Acknowledgements: HWRF Team Members at EMC,
Motivation & Goal. We investigate a way to generate PDFs from a single deterministic run
Motivation & Goal Numerical weather prediction is limited by errors in initial conditions, model imperfections, and nonlinearity. Ensembles of an NWP model provide forecast probability density functions
Recent COAMPS-TC Development and Future Plans
Recent COAMPS-TC Development and Future Plans James D. Doyle, Jon Moskaitis, Rich Hodur1, Sue Chen, Hao Jin, Yi Jin, Will Komaromi, Alex Reinecke, David Ryglicki, Dan Stern2, Shouping Wang Naval Research
Impact of Assimilating Aircraft Reconnaissance Observations in Operational HWRF
Impact of Assimilating Aircraft Reconnaissance Observations in Operational HWRF Mingjing Tong, Vijay Tallapragada, Emily Liu, Weiguo Wang, Chanh Kieu, Qingfu Liu and Banglin Zhan Environmental Modeling
Testing and Evaluation of GSI Hybrid Data Assimilation for Basin-scale HWRF: Lessons We Learned
4th NOAA Testbeds & Proving Ground Workshop, College Park, MD, April 2-4, 2013 Testing and Evaluation of GSI Hybrid Data Assimilation for Basin-scale HWRF: Lessons We Learned Hui Shao1, Chunhua Zhou1,
Ensemble Prediction Systems
Ensemble Prediction Systems Eric Blake National Hurricane Center 7 March 2017 Acknowledgements to Michael Brennan 1 Question 1 What are some current advantages of using single-model ensembles? A. Estimates
COAMPS-TC 2015 Version, Performance, and Future Plans
COAMPS-TC 2015 Version, Performance, and Future Plans James D. Doyle, R. Hodur 1, J. Moskaitis, S. Chen, E. Hendricks 2, H. Jin, Y. Jin, A. Reinecke, S. Wang Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 1 IES/SAIC,
Performance of the 2013 Operational HWRF
Performance of the 2013 Operational HWRF Vijay Tallapragada & HWRF Team Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA/NWS, NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740. HFIP Annual Review Meeting, February 19, 2014 1 Outline
HWRF sensitivity to cumulus schemes
HWRF sensitivity to cumulus schemes Mrinal K Biswas and Ligia R Bernardet HFIP Telecon, 01 February 2012 Motivation HFIP Regional Model Team Physics Workshop (Aug 11): Foci: Scientific issues on PBL and
GFDL Hurricane Model Ensemble Performance During the 2012 Hurricane Season
GFDL Hurricane Model Ensemble Performance During the 2012 Hurricane Season Tim Marchok (NOAA / GFDL) Matt Morin (DRC HPTG / GFDL) Morris Bender (NOAA / GFDL) HFIP Team Telecon 12 December 2012 Acknowledgments:
2014 real-time COAMPS-TC ensemble prediction
2014 real-time COAMPS-TC ensemble prediction Jon Moskaitis, Alex Reinecke, Jim Doyle and the COAMPS-TC team Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA HFIP annual review meeting, 20 November 2014 Real-time
NOAA s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: Framework for Addressing the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017
NOAA s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: Framework for Addressing the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 Frank Marks (NOAA/AOML/HRD) November 7, 2018 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement
Forecast Challenges of the 2017 Hurricane Season and NHC Priorities for 2018
Forecast Challenges of the 2017 Hurricane Season and NHC Priorities for 2018 Michael J. Brennan, Mark DeMaria, Eric S. Blake, Richard J. Pasch, Andrew Penny Annual HFIP Meeting 8 November 2017 Outline
Development of the Basin-scale HWRF Modeling System
Development of the Basin-scale HWRF Modeling System Xuejin Zhang and Ghassan Alaka, Jr. (AOML/HRD) HFIP Annual Meeting, 11 January 2017 Team AOML/HRD (Team Lead: S. Gopalakrishnan) G. Alaka R. Black H.
High-Res Physics Tiger Team Report
High-Res Physics Tiger Team Report Lin Zhu,Sergio Abarca & all EMC hurricane team, Robert Fovell, Jun Zhan, Ping Zhu, Shaowu Bao, Ligia Bernadet, Kathryn Newman, Evan Kalina, Mirnal Biswas, Avichal Mehra,
Current Issues and Challenges in Ensemble Forecasting
Current Issues and Challenges in Ensemble Forecasting Junichi Ishida (JMA) and Carolyn Reynolds (NRL) With contributions from WGNE members 31 th WGNE Pretoria, South Africa, 26 29 April 2016 Recent trends
HFIP Annual Review Meeting November 5-7, 2018 Embassy Suites by Hilton Miami International Airport 3974 NW S River Dr, Miami, FL 33142
HFIP Annual Review Meeting November 5-7, 2018 Embassy Suites by Hilton Miami International Airport 3974 NW S River Dr, Miami, FL 33142 Overall Objectives The new HFIP Strategic Plan detailing the specific
Operational Hurricane Modeling at NCEP/EMC
Operational Hurricane Modeling at NCEP/EMC Avichal Mehra Hurricane Project Lead Environmental Modeling Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 49 th Session 21-24 February 2017, Yokohama,
Overview of the NCEP Operational HWRF Modeling System
1 Overview of the NCEP Operational HWRF Modeling System Zhan Zhang Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA/NWS, NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740 USA HWRF Tutorial, Nanjing China, Nov. 30-Dec. 2, 2015 Outline
Have a better understanding of the Tropical Cyclone Products generated at ECMWF
Objectives Have a better understanding of the Tropical Cyclone Products generated at ECMWF Learn about the recent developments in the forecast system and its impact on the Tropical Cyclone forecast Learn
Overview of HFIP FY10 activities and results
Overview of HFIP FY10 activities and results Bob Gall HFIP Annual Review Meeting Miami Nov 9, 2010 Outline In this presentation I will show a few preliminary results from the summer program. More detail
HFIP ENSEMBLE PLAN. Jun Du (EMC/NCEP), presenting on behalf of the HFIP Ensemble Team:
HFIP ENSEMBLE PLAN Jun Du (EMC/NCEP), presenting on behalf of the HFIP Ensemble Team: Sim Aberson (HRD) Sim.Aberson@noaa.gov Tom Hamill (ESRL) tom.hamill@noaa.gov Carolyn Reynolds (NRL) carolyn.reynolds@nrlmry.navy.mil
2017 Real-time COAMPS-TC EPS
2017 Real-time COAMPS-TC EPS Jon Moskaitis, Will Komaromi, Alex Reinecke, and Jim Doyle Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA HFIP Annual Review Meeting: 8 November 2017 Typhoon Noru Hurricane Norma
A pseudo-ensemble hybrid data assimilation system for HWRF
A pseudo-ensemble hybrid data assimilation system for HWRF Xuyang Ge UCAR visiting postdoctoral scientist at PSU/NCEP Contributors: Fuqing Zhang and Yonghui Weng (PSU) Mingjing Tong and Vijay Tallapragada
1.2 DEVELOPMENT OF THE NWS PROBABILISTIC EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL AND POST PROCESSING METHODOLOGY
1.2 DEVELOPMENT OF THE NWS PROBABILISTIC EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL AND POST PROCESSING METHODOLOGY Huiqing Liu 1 and Arthur Taylor 2* 1. Ace Info Solutions, Reston, VA 2. NOAA / NWS / Science and
Numerical Weather Prediction: Data assimilation. Steven Cavallo
Numerical Weather Prediction: Data assimilation Steven Cavallo Data assimilation (DA) is the process estimating the true state of a system given observations of the system and a background estimate. Observations
Fernando Prates. Evaluation Section. Slide 1
Fernando Prates Evaluation Section Slide 1 Objectives Ø Have a better understanding of the Tropical Cyclone Products generated at ECMWF Ø Learn the recent developments in the forecast system and its impact
A Multi-Model Ensemble for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A Multi-Model Ensemble for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Jonathan R. Moskaitis Naval Research
Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Data Assimilation. Jason Sippel NOAA AOML/HRD 2018 WMO Workshop at NHC
Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Data Assimilation Jason Sippel NOAA AOML/HRD 2018 WMO Workshop at NHC Outline History of TC forecast improvements in relation to model development Ongoing modeling/da developments
Transitioning Physics Advancements into the Operational Hurricane WRF Model
Transitioning Physics Advancements into the Operational Hurricane WRF Model KATHRYN NEWMAN, MRINAL BISWAS, LAURIE CARSON N OA A / ESR L T EA M M E M B E RS: E. K ALINA, J. F RIMEL, E. GRELL, AND L. B ERNARDET
PSU HFIP 2010 Summary: Performance of the ARW-EnKF Real-time Cloud-resolving TC Ensemble Analysis and Forecasting System.
PSU HFIP 2010 Summary: Performance of the ARW-EnKF Real-time Cloud-resolving TC Ensemble Analysis and Forecasting System Fuqing Zhang Penn State University Contributors: Yonghui Weng, John Gamache and
Assimilate W88D Doppler Vr for Humberto 05
Assimilate W88D Doppler Vr for Humberto 05 WRF/EnKF Forecast vs. Observations vs. 3DVAR Min SLP Max wind The WRF/3DVAR (as a surrogate of operational algorithm) assimilates the same radar data but without
A Preliminary Exploration of the Upper Bound of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
A Preliminary Exploration of the Upper Bound of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Jonathan L. Vigh (NCAR/RAL) Kerry Emanuel (MIT) Mrinal K. Biswas (NCAR/RAL) Eric A. Hendricks (Naval Postgraduate School)
2012 AHW Stream 1.5 Retrospective Results
2012 AHW Stream 1.5 Retrospective Results Ryan D. Torn, Univ. Albany, SUNY Chris Davis, Wei Wang, Jimy Dudhia, Tom Galarneau, Chris Snyder, James Done, NCAR/NESL/MMM Overview Since participation in HFIP
NHC Ensemble/Probabilistic Guidance Products
NHC Ensemble/Probabilistic Guidance Products Michael Brennan NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC Mark DeMaria NESDIS/STAR HFIP Ensemble Product Development Workshop 21 April 2010 Boulder, CO 1 Current Ensemble/Probability
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Bob Gall HFIP Development Manager
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Bob Gall HFIP Development Manager Boulder, Colorado June 26, 2012 2 The HFIP Project Vision/Goals Vision o Organize the hurricane community to dramatically
A Comparison between Hurricane WRF and TWRF in Typhoon Track and Rainfall Forecast over the western North Pacific
A Comparison between Hurricane WRF and TWRF in Typhoon Track and Rainfall Forecast over the western North Pacific Chin-Cheng TSAI 1, Ling-Feng HSIAO 1, Der Song CHEN 2, Jian-Wen BAO 3 1 Taiwan Typhoon
The EMC Mission.. In response to operational requirements:
The EMC Mission.. In response to operational requirements: Maintain operational model suite The scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems Modify current operational
Ensemble TC Track/Genesis Products in
Ensemble TC Track/Genesis Products in Parallel @NCO Resolution Members Daily Frequency Forecast Length NCEP ensemble (AEMN-para) GFS T574L64-33km(12/02/15) 20+1_CTL 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC 16 days (384hrs)
TC forecasting with variable resolution in CAM-MPAS
TC forecasting with variable resolution in CAM-MPAS Sang-Hun Park Bill Skamarock, Chris Davis, Jimy Dudhia and Michael Duda collaborators (CGD) :: Peter Lauritzen, Andrew Gettelman and Stephen Yeager National
NHC Activities, Plans, and Needs
NHC Activities, Plans, and Needs HFIP Diagnostics Workshop August 10, 2012 NHC Team: David Zelinsky, James Franklin, Wallace Hogsett, Ed Rappaport, Richard Pasch NHC Activities Activities where NHC is
OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR HURRICANE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS / VERIFICATION
OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR HURRICANE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS / VERIFICATION Richard J. Pasch National Hurricane Center Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop Miami, Florida 4 May 2009 NOAA/NESDIS
Ensemble Prediction Systems
Ensemble Prediction Systems Eric S. Blake & Michael J. Brennan National Hurricane Center 8 March 2016 Acknowledgements to Rick Knabb and Jessica Schauer 1 Why Aren t Models Perfect? Atmospheric variables
Retrospective and near real-time tests of GSIbased EnKF-Var hybrid data assimilation system for HWRF with airborne radar data
Retrospective and near real-time tests of GSIbased EnKF-Var hybrid data assimilation system for HWRF with airborne radar data Xuguang Wang, Xu Lu, Yongzuo Li University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK In collaboration
Potential Operational Capability for S2S Prediction
Potential Operational Capability for S2S Prediction Yuejian Zhu Environmental Modeling Center Acknowledgements: Brian Gross and Vijay Tallapragada Staffs of EMC and ESRL Present for Metrics, Post-processing,
Evaluation and Improvement of HWRF PBL Physics using Aircraft Observations
Evaluation and Improvement of HWRF PBL Physics using Aircraft Observations Jun Zhang NOAA/AOML/HRD with University of Miami/CIMAS HFIP Regional Modeling Team Workshop, 09/18/2012 Many thanks to my collaborators:
Next Global Ensemble Forecast System
Next Global Ensemble Forecast System Yuejian Zhu, Dingchen Hou, Mozheng Wei, Richard Wobus, Jessie Ma, Bo Cui and Shrinivas Moorthi Acknowledgements: Jiayi Peng, Malaquias Pena, Yucheng Song, Yan Luo and
Unidata Policy Meeting Key Program Status
Unidata Policy Meeting Key Program Status May 14, 2013 Where America s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin Agenda Sandy Supplemental Integrated Dissemination Program AWIPS2 May, 2013
ARW/EnKF performance for the 2009 Hurricane Season
ARW/EnKF performance for the 2009 Hurricane Season Ryan D. Torn, Univ. at Albany, SUNY Chris Davis, Steven Cavallo, Chris Snyder, Wei Wang, James Done, NCAR/MMM 4 th EnKF Workshop 8 April 2010, Rensselaerville,
Expansion of NCEP Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Model Forecast Guidance to all Global Tropical Cyclones
Expansion of NCEP Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Model Forecast Guidance to all Global Tropical Cyclones Dr. Vijay Tallapragada, Hurricane Team Leader & HFIP Development Manager,
Development and research of GSI based hybrid EnKF Var data assimilation for HWRF to improve hurricane prediction
Development and research of GSI based hybrid EnKF Var data assimilation for HWRF to improve hurricane prediction Xuguang Wang, Xu Lu, Yongzuo Li School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK,
Report on EN6 DTC Ensemble Task 2014: Preliminary Configuration of North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE)
Report on EN6 DTC Ensemble Task 2014: Preliminary Configuration of North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE) Motivation As an expansion of computing resources for operations at EMC is becoming available
Discussion on HFIP RDITT Experiments. Proposal for extending the life of RDITT for one more year: Future Plans from Individual Groups
Discussion on HFIP RDITT Experiments Proposal for extending the life of RDITT for one more year: Future Plans from Individual Groups 1 EMC: Modifications to one-way hybrid ensemble-variational data assimilation
Physics Strategy. Sergio Abarca*, Avichal Mehra, Vijay Tallapragada, Jian Wen Bao HFIP Annual Meeting, Miami, FL Jan 11, 2017 *IMSG/EMC
Physics Strategy Sergio Abarca*, Avichal Mehra, Vijay Tallapragada, Jian Wen Bao 2017 HFIP Annual Meeting, Miami, FL Jan 11, 2017 *IMSG/EMC 1 Our aim: Improve forecast performance through betterment of
Ting Lei, Xuguang Wang University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA. Wang and Lei, MWR, Daryl Kleist (NCEP): dual resolution 4DEnsVar
GSI-based four dimensional ensemble-variational (4DEnsVar) data assimilation: formulation and single resolution experiments with real data for NCEP GFS Ting Lei, Xuguang Wang University of Oklahoma, Norman,
EMC multi-model ensemble TC track forecast
EMC multi-model ensemble TC track forecast Jiayi Peng*, Yuejian Zhu and Richard Wobus* *IMSG at Environmental Modeling Center Environmental Modeling Center /NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD 2746 Acknowledgements:
NCEP Hurricane Modeling: HWRF 2016 Upgrade Plans. Sam Trahan Hurricane Team NOAA NCEP EMC and collaborators around the world
NCEP Hurricane Modeling: HWRF 2016 Upgrade Plans Sam Trahan Hurricane Team NOAA NCEP EMC and collaborators around the world Overview Upgrades Test Plan 2016 HWRF Upgrades Overview Blue Upgrades are Mandatory
Recent activities related to EPS (operational aspects)
Recent activities related to EPS (operational aspects) Junichi Ishida and Carolyn Reynolds With contributions from WGE members 31th WGE Pretoria, South Africa, 26 29 April 2016 GLOBAL 2 Operational global
Tropical cyclone simulations and predictions with GFDL s prototype global cloud resolving model
Tropical cyclone simulations and predictions with GFDL s prototype global cloud resolving model S.-J. Lin and GFDL model development teams NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Workshop on High-Resolution
High Resolution Ensemble Prediction of Typhoon Morakot (2009) May 11, 2011
High Resolution Ensemble Prediction of Typhoon Morakot (2009) Ying-Hwa Kuo 1,* and Xingqin Fang 1,2 1 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA 2 Department of Atmospheric Sciences,
HFIP Global modeling team
HFIP Global modeling team ESRL Stan Benjamin (+ Mike Fiorino, John Brown, JeffW, Bao ) NCEP/EMC Steve Lord NRL Melinda Peng, Carolyn Reynolds GFDL Shian-Jiann Lin AOML Kevin Yeh Goal: Improve hurricane
NOAA Storm Surge Modeling Gaps and Priorities
NOAA Storm Surge Modeling Gaps and Priorities HFIP Meeting November 9 th, 2017 Laura Paulik Alaka NHC Storm Surge Unit Introduction to Probabilistic Storm Surge P-Surge is based on an ensemble of Sea,
N C E P. Ensemble Systems within the NOAA Operational Modeling Suite. William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP
US THORPE 19 Sept 2012 1 N C E P Ensemble Systems within the NOAA Operational Modeling Suite William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Data Assimilation, Modeling
Moving to a simpler NCEP production suite
Moving to a simpler NCEP production suite Unified coupled global modeling Hendrik L. Tolman Director, Environmental Modeling Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP Hendrik.Tolman@NOAA.gov page 1 of 14 Content The suite
The role of testbeds in NOAA for transitioning NWP research to operations
ECMWF Workshop on Operational Systems November 18, 2013 The role of testbeds in NOAA for transitioning NWP research to operations Ligia Bernardet 1* and Zoltan Toth 1 1 NOAA ESRL Global Systems Division,
Hybrid variational-ensemble data assimilation. Daryl T. Kleist. Kayo Ide, Dave Parrish, John Derber, Jeff Whitaker
Hybrid variational-ensemble data assimilation Daryl T. Kleist Kayo Ide, Dave Parrish, John Derber, Jeff Whitaker Weather and Chaos Group Meeting 07 March 20 Variational Data Assimilation J Var J 2 2 T
Model error and parameter estimation
Model error and parameter estimation Chiara Piccolo and Mike Cullen ECMWF Annual Seminar, 11 September 2018 Summary The application of interest is atmospheric data assimilation focus on EDA; A good ensemble
HFIP Diagnostics Workshop Summary and Recommendations
HFIP Diagnostics Workshop Summary and Recommendations Agenda Summary Operational input from NHC Atmospheric diagnostics EMC, NESDIS, CSU, GFDL, ESRL New verification techniques JNT/NCAR Land surface, ocean,
HFIP ENSEMBLE TEAM UPDATE
HFIP ENSEMBLE TEAM UPDATE Carolyn Reynolds (NRL) carolyn.reynolds@nrlmry.navy.mil Zoltan Toth (ESRL) zoltan.toth@noaa.gov Sim Aberson (HRD) Sim.Aberson@noaa.gov Tom Hamill (ESRL) tom.hamill@noaa.gov Jeff
A GSI-based convection-allowing EnKF and ensemble forecast system for PECAN
A GSI-based convection-allowing EnKF and ensemble forecast system for PECAN Aaron Johnson, Xuguang Wang, Samuel Degelia University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 26 May 2016 7 th EnKF Data Assimilation Workshop,
DA/Initialization/Ensemble Development Team Milestones and Priorities
DA/Initialization/Ensemble Development Team Milestones and Priorities Presented by Xuguang Wang HFIP annual review meeting Jan. 11-12, 2017, Miami, FL Fully cycled, self-consistent, dual-resolution, GSI
Focus on parameter variation results
Accounting for Model Uncertainty in the Navy s Global Ensemble Forecasting System C. Reynolds, M. Flatau, D. Hodyss, J. McLay, J. Moskaitis, J. Ridout, C. Sampson, J. Cummings Naval Research Lab, Monterey,
An Overview of COAMPS-TC Development and Real-Time Tests
An Overview of COAMPS-TC Development and Real-Time Tests James D. Doyle, R. Hodur 1, P. Black, S. Chen, J. Cummings 2, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C.-S. Liou, J. Moskaitis, M. Peng, A. Reinecke,
Na#onal Hurricane Center Official Intensity Errors
Na#onal Hurricane Center Official Intensity Errors Assimilate Airborne Doppler Winds with WRF-EnKF Available for 20+ years but never used in operational models due to the lack of resolution and/or the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Five-Year Strategic Plan
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Five-Year Strategic Plan 13 December 2010 Frederick Toepfer HFIP Program Manager Robert Gall HFIP Development Manager
CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting (SSEF) System
CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting (SSEF) System Fanyou Kong, Ming Xue, Xuguang Wang, Keith Brewster Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms University of Oklahoma (collaborated with NSSL, SPC,
Transition of Research to Operations
Transition of Research to Operations Ligia Bernardet Shaowu Bao, Mrinal Biswas, Tim Brown, Don Stark, Laurie Carson http://www.dtcenter.org/hurrwrf/users External collaborators: NOAA Environmental Modeling
Report on EN2 DTC Ensemble Task 2015: Testing of Stochastic Physics for use in NARRE
Report on EN2 DTC Ensemble Task 2015: Testing of Stochastic Physics for use in NARRE Motivation: With growing evidence that initial- condition uncertainties are not sufficient to entirely explain forecast
Current and future configurations of MOGREPS-UK. Susanna Hagelin EWGLAM/SRNWP, Rome, 4 Oct 2016
Current and future configurations of MOGREPS-UK Susanna Hagelin EWGLAM/SRNWP, Rome, 4 Oct 2016 Contents Current configuration PS38 and package trial results Soil moisture perturbations case study Future
GSI Data Assimilation System Support and Testing Activities: 2013 Annual Update
14Th Annual WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 24-28, 2013 GSI Data Assimilation System Support and Testing Activities: 2013 Annual Update Hui Shao1, Ming Hu2, Chunhua Zhou1, Kathryn Newman1, Mrinal
NOAA Update. SPARC DA and S-RIP Workshop October 17-21, 2016 Victoria, BC
NOAA Update Craig S. Long Bill Lapenta, Hendrik Tolman, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Leigh Zhang, Hyun-Chul Lee, Jack Woolen, Jeff Whitaker NOAA/NWS/NCEP and NOAA/OAR/ESRL Topics Recent Upgrades NCEP Production Suite
Comparison of Typhoon Track Forecast using Dynamical Initialization Schemeinstalled
IWTC-LP 9 Dec 2014, Jeju, Korea Comparison of Typhoon Track Forecast using Dynamical Initialization Schemeinstalled WRF Hyeonjin Shin, WooJeong Lee, KiRyong Kang, 1) Dong-Hyun Cha and Won-Tae Yun National
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou , China 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Article Sensitivity of Different Parameterizations on Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Durian over the South China Sea using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model Worachat Wannawong
The NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance System. William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP
WGNE-28 5 Nov 2012 1 N C E P The NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance System William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Geoff DiMego, John Derber, Yuejian Zhu, Hendrik
Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Project for the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)
Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Project for the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Final report documenting: Regional Application of the GSI- Hybrid Data Assimilation for Tropical Storm forecasts
HFIP Coupling Working Group
HFIP Coupling Working Group Progress report with contributions of Tolman (NCEP), Chen (NRL), Ginis (URI) Hendrik L. Tolman Chief, Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch NOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC Hendrik.Tolman@NOAA.gov
EMC Probabilistic Forecast Verification for Sub-season Scales
EMC Probabilistic Forecast Verification for Sub-season Scales Yuejian Zhu Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA Acknowledgement: Wei Li, Hong Guan and Eric Sinsky Present for the DTC Test Plan and
Comparison of Convection-permitting and Convection-parameterizing Ensembles
Comparison of Convection-permitting and Convection-parameterizing Ensembles Adam J. Clark NOAA/NSSL 18 August 2010 DTC Ensemble Testbed (DET) Workshop Introduction/Motivation CAMs could lead to big improvements
Development toward global aerosol DA system at NCEP
Development toward global aerosol DA system at NCEP Jun Wang, Jeff Mcqueen (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC) Sarah Lu (SUNY at Albany) Shobha Kondragunta, Qiang Zhao (NESDIS) Arlindo da Silva (GSFC) EMC GSI-EnKF group
Hyperlocal Marine Weather: What s Happening?
Hyperlocal Marine Weather: What s Happening? André van der Westhuysen 1,2 and Jeff McQueen 1 1 NOAA / National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction 2 I.M Systems Group, Rockville
Developmental Testbed Center: Core Activities for HFIP
Developmental Testbed Center: Core Activities for HFIP Kathryn Newman Evan Kalina, Louisa Nance, Bill Kuo DTC HFIP Annual Meeting 2017 November 8 DTC strategies to promote HWRF O2R2O DTC purpose: Facilitate
Using a high-resolution ensemble modeling method to inform risk-based decision-making at Taylor Park Dam, Colorado
Using a high-resolution ensemble modeling method to inform risk-based decision-making at Taylor Park Dam, Colorado Michael J. Mueller 1, Kelly Mahoney 2, Kathleen Holman 3, David Gochis 4 1 Cooperative
RTP SHIP Inclusion of Environmental Uncertainty for Automated Ship-Routing Guidance
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. RTP SHIP Inclusion of Environmental Uncertainty for Automated Ship-Routing Guidance Justin McLay 1, Jim Hansen 2 Naval
Unifying the NCEP Production Suite
Unifying the NCEP Production Suite Integrated coupled modelling approach at NCEP Michael B. Ek Deputy Director, Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Hybrid Variational-Ensemble Data Assimilation at NCEP. Daryl Kleist
Hybrid Variational-Ensemble Data Assimilation at NCEP Daryl Kleist NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC with acnowledgements to Kayo Ide, Dave Parrish, Jeff Whitaer, John Derber, Russ Treadon, Wan-Shu Wu, Jacob Carley, and