5.2 IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS OF CONCERN

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1 5.2 IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS OF CONCERN 2015 HMP Update Changes The 2010 HMP hazard identification was presented in Section 6. For the 2015 HMP update, the hazard identification is presented in subsection 5.2 (Risk Assessment Identification of s of Concern). The Steering Committee chose to group some natural hazards together based on the similarity of hazard events, their typical occurrence or impacts, and consideration of hazard grouping in the 2014 State of New Jersey HMP. During the 2015 HMP update, sea level rise was added to the list of hazards of concern. s of Concern are defined as those hazards that are considered most likely to impact a community. These are identified using available data and local knowledge. To provide a strong foundation for mitigation strategies considered in Section 6, County considered a full range of natural hazards that could impact the area, and then identified and ranked those hazards that presented the greatest concern. The natural hazard of concern identification process incorporated input from the County and participating jurisdictions; review of the State of New Jersey Mitigation Plan (NJ HMP) and previous hazard identification efforts; research and local, state, and federal information on the frequency, magnitude, and costs associated with the various hazards that have previously, or could feasibly, impact the region; and qualitative or anecdotal information regarding natural hazards and the perceived vulnerability of the study area s assets to them. Table documents the process of identifying the natural hazards of concern for further profiling and evaluation. For the purposes of this planning effort, the Steering Committee chose to group some natural hazards together, based on the similarity of hazard events, their typical concurrence or their impacts, consideration of how hazards have been grouped in Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) guidance documents (FEMA 386-1, Understanding Your Risks, Identifying s and Estimating Losses; FEMA s Multi- Identification and Risk Assessment The Cornerstone of the National Mitigation Strategy ), and consideration of hazard grouping in the NJ HMP. The Flood hazard includes riverine (inland) flooding, coastal flooding and sea level rise. Other types of flooding that can occur in the County include storm surge, which is further discussed in in Section (Coastal Storm). Inclusion of the various forms of flooding under a general Flood hazard is consistent with that used in FEMA s Multi- Identification and Risk Assessment guidance. Tropical cyclones (hurricanes, tropical storms and tropical depressions) and extra-tropical cyclones (Nor Easters) were grouped under the Coastal Storm hazard. The Severe Weather hazard includes windstorms that often entail a variety of other influencing weather conditions including thunderstorms, hail, lightning, and tornadoes. Tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, sometimes grouped together under a coastal storms hazard (FEMA 386-2), are being grouped in separate hazard categories as explained above. The Severe Winter Weather hazard includes heavy snowfall, blizzards, freezing rain/sleet, and ice storms. This grouping is consistent with that used in the NJ HMP. DMA 2000 Mitigation Plan Update County and All Municipalities, New Jersey 5.2-1

2 Table Identification of Natural s of Concern for County Avalanche No No Coastal Erosion No Coastal Storm Disease Outbreak The NJ HMP does not identify avalanche as a hazard of concern for New Jersey. The topography and climate of County does not support the occurrence of an avalanche event. New Jersey in general has a very low occurrence of avalanche events based on statistics provided by the American Avalanche Association (AAA) between 1950 and County is not bounded by coastal waters; however, several areas in the southern portion of the County have waterbodies influenced by coastal waters (i.e., tides, surge). In this respect, coastal erosion is discussed in the Coastal Storm hazard. The NJHMP identifies coastal storms as a hazard of concern for New Jersey. Additionally, the NJHMP identified coastal erosion as a hazard of concern for the State as well. Due to the County's proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, County is susceptible to hurricanes, tropical storms, and Nor'Easters. Since 2008, County has been included in three FEMA declarations related to coastal storms: o August 26-September 5, 2011 FEMA-DR-4021 Hurricane Irene o September 28-October 6, 2011 FEMA-DR_4039 Remnants of Tropical Storm o October 26-November 8, 2012 FEMA-DR-4048 Hurricane Sandy The NJ HMP identifies disease outbreak as a hazard of concern for New Jersey. Infestations of ticks, mosquitoes, and/or other types of pest may be present in the County. Therefore, the Steering and Planning Committees identified disease outbreak as a hazard of concern. In addition to tick- and mosquito-borne illnesses, the County has been impacted by influenza, Hepatitis C, and foodborne illnesses and has participated in Ebola awareness/preparedness meetings as led by the State. Review of NAC-AAA database between 1998 and County HMP NJHMP FEMA NOAA USGS NJDOH DMA 2000 Mitigation Plan Update County and All Municipalities, New Jersey 5.2-2

3 Table Identification of Natural s of Concern for County Drought Earthquake No The NJ HMP identifies drought as a hazard of concern for New Jersey. According to the NJHMP, counties most often affected by a drought are densely populated areas that rely on above-ground reservoirs for water supplies. County fits this description. The drought hazard is a concern for County because the County s water is supplied by both surface water and groundwater. Surface water supplies are affected more quickly during droughts than groundwater sources. Since 2008, the County has been impacted by four drought events. Between 2012 and 2014, the State of New Jersey has been included in seven USDA declarations; of which, County was included in three of these disasters, with two resulting from drought conditions. County is located in the Northern Climate Division. According to the NRCC, this climate division has been impacted by the following periods of severe and extreme drought: o August September 1932 o November 1949 January 1950 o September November 1957 o August 1964 August 1966 o December 1980 January 1981 o March April 1985 o August September 1995 o July August 1999 o December 2001 May 2002 o July September 2002 The NJ HMP identifies earthquake as a hazard of concern for New Jersey. Although they are known to occur on a regular basis, records indicate that no major earthquakes have struck the State since the establishment of historical record-keeping (1500 s). Between 1783 and 2014, there have been 181 documented earthquakes in New Jersey. Twenty of these events have been epicentered in County. The Steering and Planning Committees identified earthquake as a hazard of concern for County. USGS USDA NRCC NOAA NOAA-NCDC Storm Database NJDEP NJGS DMA 2000 Mitigation Plan Update County and All Municipalities, New Jersey 5.2-3

4 Table Identification of Natural s of Concern for County Expansive Soils No No Extreme Temperature Flood The NJ HMP identifies expansive soils as a hazard of concern for New Jersey; however, the Planning Committee did not identify this as a hazard of concern for County. Soils that expand (swell) as they become wet and contract (shrink) as they are dry are called expansive soils. This change can cause the ground to move up and down several inches during a cycle of wetting and drying. Expansive soils that are predominately clay minerals have the ability to absorb water. In County, soils in the County have slight to moderate swelling potential and in some areas, contain little or no swelling clay. Based on the soil type and no history of expansive soil incidence occurring in the County, expansive soils is not a hazard of concern for County. The NJ HMP identifies extreme temperature as a hazard of concern for New Jersey. County has an average of 24.7 days of temperatures below 32 F ; 46.5 days below 20 F; and 2.3 days of temperatures below 0 F. County has an average of 14.5 days of temperatures in excess of 90 F; 2.9 days of temperatures in excess of 95 F; and 0.2 days of temperatures in excess of 100 F. The Steering and Planning Committees identified extreme temperature as a hazard of concern for County. NJHMP identifies flooding as a hazard of concern in New Jersey. There are 38,888 people in County living in the 1% and 0.2% annual chance flood zones, of which, 23,431 people in County live in the 1% annual chance flood zone. Over 20,000 acres of County are located in the 1% and 0.2% annual chance flood zones, with 15,921 acres located in the 1% flood zone. The County has 4,114 NFIP policies with total loss payments equaling over $278 million. Between 2008 and 2014, County was included in three FEMA declarations related to flooding: o August 26-September 5, 2011 FEMA-DR-4021 Hurricane Irene o September 28-October 6, 2011 FEMA-DR-4039 Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee o October 26-November 8, 2012 FEMA-DR-4048 Hurricane Sandy The Steering and Planning Committees identified flooding as a hazard of concern for County. USGS NOAA NCDC Storm Database Utah Climate Center ONJSC FEMA FEMA FIS NFIP NOAA-NCDC Storm Database DMA 2000 Mitigation Plan Update County and All Municipalities, New Jersey 5.2-4

5 Table Identification of Natural s of Concern for County Geological s The NJHMP identifies geological hazards as a hazard of concern for New Jersey. For the 2015 Plan Update, the Planning Committee identified landslides and land subsidence as hazards of concern for County. In County, the area most susceptible to landslides is concentrated near the center and southeastern portion of the County. With the exception of the far southeastern area, the majority of southeast County has high landslide susceptibility with moderate incidence. The central portion of the County has moderate landslide susceptibility with low incidence. The remainder of the County has a low susceptibility. In total, 6.27 square miles (3.18%) of the County is identified as having Class A landslide susceptibility and 0.57 square miles (0.29%) of the County is identified as having Class B landslide susceptibility. Hailstorm Please see Severe Weather Hurricane (and other Tropical Cyclones) Please see Coastal Storm Ice Storm Please see Severe Winter Weather Infestation No Please see Disease Outbreak Land Subsidence No Please see Geological s Landslide No Please see Geological s Nor Easters Please see Coastal Storms NJHMP NJGWS NJDEP DMA 2000 Mitigation Plan Update County and All Municipalities, New Jersey 5.2-5

6 Table Identification of Natural s of Concern for County Severe Weather (Windstorms, Thunderstorms, Hail, Lightning, and Tornados) Severe Winter Weather (Heavy Snow, Blizzards, Freezing Rain/Sleet, Ice Storms) identifies thunderstorms, lightning, tornadoes, hurricanes and extreme winds as hazards of concern for New Jersey. According to FEMA, between 2008 and 2014, County was included in five declarations associated with Severe Weather events. o March 12-April 15, 2010 FEMA-DR-1897 Severe Storms and Flooding o August 26-September 5, 2011 FEMA-DR-4021 Hurricane Irene o September 28-October 6, 2011 FEMA-DR-4039 Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee o October 29, 2011 FEMA-DR-4048 Severe Weather o October 26 November 8, 2012 FEMA-DR-4086 Hurricane Sandy New Jersey has experienced 144 tornadoes between 1950 and 2013, with four of those occurring in County. However, there have been no tornadoes between 2008 and 2013 in the County. Between 2008 and 2013, eight hail events have impacted County. The NJHMP identifies Severe Winter Weather as a hazard of concern for New Jersey. Normal seasonal snowfall in County is approximately 25 to 35 inches. According to FEMA, between 2008 and 2014, County was included in one declaration associated with Severe Winter Weather events. o October 29, 2011 FEMA-DR-4048 Severe Weather The Steering and Planning Committees identified Severe Winter Weather as a hazard of concern for County. Tornado Please see Severe Weather Tsunami No No Volcano No No The NJ HMP does identify tsunami as a hazard of concern for New Jersey. County is not bounded by coastal waters; therefore, based on input from the Steering and Planning Committees and the location of the County, tsunami is not a hazard of concern for County. The NJ HMP does not identify volcano as a hazard of concern for New Jersey. The Steering and Planning Committees did not identify volcano as a hazard of concern for County. NOAA NCDC FEMA NJ OEM SPC FEMA NOAA NCDC Storm Database ONJSC SPC DMA 2000 Mitigation Plan Update County and All Municipalities, New Jersey 5.2-6

7 Table Identification of Natural s of Concern for County Wildfire The NJHMP identifies wildfire as a hazard of concern for New Jersey. In County, approximately square miles of the County is located in the low to moderate NJFFS Risk Area and square miles is located in the high to extreme risk area. Between 2008 and 2014, there have several reports of brush fires and wildfires in County. The Planning and Steering Committees identified wildfires as a hazard of concern for County. Windstorm Please see Severe Weather NOAA NCDC Storm Events Query USGS NJFFS DR EM FEMA FIS HMP NCDC NFIP NJ NJDOH NJDOT NJFFS NJGWS NRCC NOAA NTSB OEM SPC USGS Presidential Disaster Declaration Number Presidential Disaster Emergency Number Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood Insurance Study Mitigation Plan National Climatic Data Center National Flood Insurance Program New Jersey New Jersey Department of Health New Jersey Department of Transportation New Jersey Forest Fire Service New Jersey Geological and Water Survey Northeast Regional Climate Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Transportation Safety Board Office of Emergency Management Storm Prediction Center U.S. Geological Survey DMA 2000 Mitigation Plan Update County and All Municipalities, New Jersey 5.2-7

8 According to input from the County, and review of all available resources, a total of 12 hazards of concern were identified as significant hazards affecting the entire planning area, to be addressed at the county level in this plan: Coastal Storm (including Nor Easter, Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Coastal Erosion, and Storm Surge) Dam Failure Disease Outbreak Drought Earthquake Extreme Temperature Flooding (including sea level rise) Geological s (landslide and subsidence/sinkholes) ous Materials (fixed site and in-transit) Severe Weather (High Winds, Tornadoes, Thunderstorms, Hail) Severe Winter Weather (Heavy Snow, Blizzards, Ice Storms) Wildfire Other natural and human-caused hazards of concern have occurred within County, but have a low potential to occur and/or result in significant impacts within the County. Therefore, these hazards will not be further addressed within this version of the Plan. However, if deemed necessary by the County, these hazards may be considered in future Plan updates. DMA 2000 Mitigation Plan Update County and All Municipalities, New Jersey 5.2-8

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