A multi-tiered ADCIRC-based storm surge and wave prediction system

Transcription

1 A multi-tiered ADCIRC-based storm surge and wave prediction system Brian Blanton, Renaissance Computing Institute, UNC-Chapel Hill Rick Luettich, Institute of Marine Sciences, UNC-Chapel Hill, co-pi Jason Fleming, Seahorse Coastal Consulting, ASGS developer, ADCIRC Bootcamp organizer Jessica Smith, Department of Marine Sciences, UNC-Chapel Hill, MS Candidate Graduate Student Chris Calloway, Renaissance Computing Institute, UNC-Chapel Hill, software engineer Crystal Fulcher, Institute of Marine Sciences, UNC-Chapel Hill, ADCIRC grid development

2 Main Project Activities Extend/advance Adcirc Surge Guidance System (ASGS) Implement new ADCIRC grid for more comprehensive regional coverage Statistical/probabilistic hurricane tracks Statistical storm surge predictions Support ADCIRC users world-wide

3 End User Engagement ADCIRC Bootcamp Dr. Jason Fleming, Seahorse Coastal Consulting Held at US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) Coastal and Hydraulics Lab (CHL) in Vicksburg, MS 2-4 May 2016 Main topics: Grid development with SMS ADCIRC setup, simulations, and diagnostics Deploying the ASGS for forecasting applications. 50+ in-person and 7 virtual via webinar 8 students attended : North Carolina State University x2 University of Central Florida Kunsan University (Korea) x4 RPS Group 9 professionals: Stantec x3 Taylor Engineering Woods Hole Group Florida Department of Environmental Protection Applied Technology & Management Ransom Environmental USACE ERDC CHL

4 End User Engagement Hurricane Matthew Dr. Brian Batten, Dewberry, supporting FEMA Inundation grids for post-storm damage assessments UNC computed a rapid Matthew hindcast with GAHM vortex model and observed track In the development of FEMA s North Carolina Matthew Geospatial Damage Assessment, ASGS s Hurricane Matthew simulation was found to provide the best source of surge elevations as compared to observations. The RENCI Matthew surge elevations were used to establish flood depth information to facilitate initial building damage assessments to aid the FEMA disaster response by Dewberry under their Department of Homeland Security Remote Sensing Contract for Incident Management.

5 End User Engagement Hurricane Matthew Doug Bausch, Science Advisor, Pacific Disaster Center, Hawaii I know it is a busy time, but we are supporting our colleagues in the Bahamas (NEMA and other agencies) and are very interested in your products. Specifically the ADCIRC surge modeling.. FEMA HQ ADCIRC output more relevant than NHC s output for recovery purposes

6 End User Engagement Winter Storm Activities Science & Operations Officer, NWS Newport/Morehead City NC Recent winter storm Helena "It appears the ADCIRC underestimated the water levels at CG Hatteras today, by roughly 0.5 ft." Thank you for quickly getting NC CERA back online on Friday evening. A collection of tide hydrographs from 3 sites subject to water level rises in N/NNW/NNE wind events is also attached. CERA seemed to perform within about 0.5 ft of observations at Hatteras Village. We have a NC state run gauge at Cedar Island that is currently malfunctioning, so we did not get any observations there where CERA mostly focused the highest surge potential for this event.

7 End User Engagement Inland flooding reaching coastal areas Senior Hydrologist, NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center Sabine River and Pearl River flooding As this flood approaches the Gulf in East Texas, it s getting out of our domain. As well as significant impacts happening in Orange Texas that have no real modeling available and really should be performed by a coastal model. Is there any thoughts or plans or possibly any completed runs that can be performed in ADCIRC? We were able to provide guidance information from ASGS running on the Gulf of Mexico to unanticipated end-users.

8 Research Work and Accomplishments ADCIRC grid NOAA HSOFS Grid (1.8M nodes) Implemented NOAA HSOFS grid for ASGS prior to Hurricane Matthew Provided by NOAA CSDL Comprehensive US East coast and GoMex coverage Considering splitting the grid into east coast and Gulf of Mexico parts.

9 Research Work and Accomplishments Probabilistic track generation Hurricane Isabel (2003) All Models Generated our own SQL database of all hurricane forecast models, aligned with best-track times Enables comprehensive error analysis

10 Research Work and Accomplishments Probabilistic track generation 9x9 ensemble set for Hurricane Isabel (2003) Generated our own SQL database of all hurricane forecast models, aligned with best-track times Currently using cross and along track errors for OFCL model This is an extension of Davis et al (2010), who used only cross-track errors Davis, J., Paramygin, V., Forrest, D., and Sheng, Y. (2010). Toward the probabilistic simulation of storm surge and inundation in a limited-resource environment. Mon. Weather Rev., 138(7): See poster by J. Smith, presented at AMS 2017 Student Symposium in Seattle

11 Research Work and Accomplishments Probabilistic track generation Real-time Matthew Experiments NHC Consensus +/- Direction and speed errors

12 Research Work and Accomplishments Probabilistic track generation Real-time Matthew Experiments NHC Consensus +/- Direction and speed errors Individual Ensemble Members Left members more threatening

13 Research Work and Accomplishments Probabilistic track generation Real-time Matthew Experiments NHC Consensus +/- Direction and speed errors Individual Ensemble Members Left members more hazardous Exceedence Levels indicate GA/SC coast substantially threatened

14 Surrogate Model for ADCIRC (ADCIRC_Lite) Least Squares, Response Surface (ADCIRC_Lite) Kriging Artificial Neural Networks Storm Population

15 Research Work and Accomplishments Web deployment of Statistical Model Previously developed Response Surface Method statistical model deployed to web for dissemination dashboards.renci.org:3000 Allows concurrent, multi-user access

16 Research Work and Accomplishments Web deployment of Statistical Model Previously developed Response Surface Method statistical model deployed to web for dissemination dashboards.renci.org:3000 Allows concurrent, multi-user access Change parameters of model via sliders Radius to Max Winds Forward Speed Etc.

17 Anticipated Project Impact ADCIRC/ASGS End user outreach, education, and support Broaden use of critical hazard assessment method Advanced, state-of-the-science real-time storm surge and wave predictions via ASGS, CERA web outlets More comprehensive regional coverage of ADCIRC grid Enable alternative, rapid, probabilistic water levels Currently targeted at NC coast for high-resolution

18 Proposed Follow-on Work Continue ASGS and ADCIRC grid development, education, and outreach Support end-users during tropical (and non-tropical) events Extend probabilistic track generator to incorporate intensity (maximum wind speed and central pressure) and storm size (radius to maximum winds) parameters Integrate track generator with Web dashboard