Computing the Joint Probability of Hurricane Sandy and Historical Coastal Storm Forcing Parameters from Maine to Virginia
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1 Computing the Joint Probability of Hurricane Sandy and Historical Coastal Storm Forcing Parameters from Maine to Virginia Chris Massey and Jeff Melby USACE-ERDC Coastal & Hydraulics Lab
2 Study Area
3 ERDC s Coastal Storm-Modeling System (ERDC CSTORM-MS) Application of high-resolution, highly skilled numerical models in a tightly integrated modeling system with user friendly interfaces Not just hurricanes and not just in the Gulf of Mexico. Expandable and upgradeable system. Next Generation Workflow Provides for a robust, standardized approach to establishing the risk of coastal communities to future occurrences of storm events. 3
4 SMS GUI s Through the SMS GUI s users can setup and execute models as well as visualize model results. New GUI for Project Overview New GUI for MORPHOS PBL Cyclone Model New GUI for CSTORM Coupled Models Updated GUI for AdH New GUI for WAM Wave Model Updated GUI for STWAVE Updated GUI for ADCIRC 4
5 ADCIRC Coastal Circulation and Storm Surge Model EC2001FIMP Grid FEMA Region 2 Grid An unstructured finite element hydrodynamics model 2D and 3D simulations Wetting/Drying algorithm allows for storm surge inundation over previously dry land Highly portable code A part of ERDC s Coastal Storm Modeling System Preliminary Surge Modeling for Sandy Used two meshes EC2001FIMP Grid FEMA Region 2 Grid Used tidal forcing and the imbedded asymmetric vortex Holland wind/pressure model* Wind model inputs derived from the NHC forecast using the ASGS Advisories were simulated Advisory 26 results sent to NAN. 5
6 FEMA Region II Mesh Details Colors Represent Element Size in Meters 6
7 Comparison of Hurricane Sandy Water Elevations (ft MSL) at the NOAA Gauge at the Battery, NY *Preliminary Results UTC Time Datum Conversions at this Location MSL to NAVD88 subtract 0.21 ft MSL to MLLW add 2.57 ft 7
8 ADCIRC Total Water Depth (feet MSL) Results from ADCIRC, using the FEMA Region 2 Mesh and NWS Forecast Winds from Advisory 31 of Hurricane Sandy. *Preliminary Results Total Water Depth (ft MSL) Location of Tunnel Entrance/Exit Datum Conversions at this Location MSL to NAVD88 subtract 0.21 ft BUILDING STRONG MSL to MLLW add 2.57 ft 8
9 SMS GUI for WAM WAM Controls New to the SMS Create and visualize WAM grids and model results Setup input/control files Execute WAM Close-up view of WAM Grid
10 STWAVE Version 6.0 STWAVE is a steady-state finite difference model based on the wave action balance equation. The model is used to compute wave transformation (refraction, shoaling, and breaking) and wind-wave generation. SMS GUI for STWAVE Some features of the full-plane model include: Wave transformation and generation on the full 360-deg plane. Option for spatially variable winds and surge. Option for spatially constant or spatially variable bottom friction. Option for one-dimensional wave transformation on lateral boundaries. 10
11 SMS GUI for Cyclone Models Setup and run the MORPHOS-PBL Cyclone Wind Model* *Updated version of TC96 Import storms from HURDAT Synthetic storm profile generation routine Easily create perturbations for storm track/characteristic 11
12 Example SMS GUI s for CSTORM-MS Project summary views Fine level specification of overlapping regions.
13 AdH Navier-Stokes Equations Unsaturated Groundwater Equations Computational Engine (FE utilities, preconditioners, solvers, I/O to xms GUIs) Shallow Water Equations
14 Features of ADH Shallow Water Adaption Part of System-wide program Links to CRREL, HEC, NFS Internal links to groundwater Supercritical and subcritical flow Vessels Static lids (culverts, floating guidewalls,...) Friction Library (vegetative, Manning s, ice) Linking to WQ library and ICM Structures (weirs, flapgates, ) Bendway correction Baroclinic Coupled sediment transport (sands, clays, mixed) Wave effects on sediment Portable PC to distributed memory HPC Dam failure, levee over-topping (example Ark-White-Miss River) Local Mass Conservation 3D companion for 2D shallow water
15 Advances in Morphology Response Philosophy: Efficient and Robust Model Components Quasi-3D Shallow Water Hydrodynamics Probabilistic Representation of Sediment Transport Includes both Wave and Current Transport Bed load and Suspended load Mississippi Coastal Improvement Program (MsCIP) Ship Island Lidar Pre-Katrina Post-Katrina Modeled Pre-Katrina Post-Katrina Model vs Measured
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