Case Studies in Communication Challenges: Hurricane Sandy

Transcription

1 Case Studies in Communication Challenges: Hurricane Sandy International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones Jeju Island, South Korea Chris Landsea, National Hurricane Center, RSMC Miami

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3 Major Hurricane Sandy Making Landfall in Cuba

4 Sandy s Impacts in Cuba

5 Evolution of Sandy s structure Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Out 140 nm from Sandy s Center

6 Evolution of Sandy s structure Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Out 140 nm from Sandy s Center Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Out 275 nm from Sandy s Center

7 Why were there no Hurricane Warnings for Sandy?

8 Issuing Hurricane Warnings for Sandy could have been a big problem for three reasons if it became extratropical before landfall:

9 Issuing Hurricane Warnings for Sandy could have been a big problem for three reasons if it became extratropical before landfall: 1) NHC could have continued to issue advisories for Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy, but the entire warning dissemination system could have broke - many internal and external systems are not expecting/could not handle multiple advisories on post-tropicals.

10 Issuing Hurricane Warnings for Sandy could have been a big problem for three reasons if it became extratropical before landfall: 2) NHC could have stopped writing advisories and the warnings would have transitioned to the local Weather Forecast Offices - emergency managers did not want an abrupt switch mid-way through the event.

11 Issuing Hurricane Warnings for Sandy could have been a big problem for three reasons if it became extratropical before landfall: 3) NHC could have faked it and continued to call it a hurricane when it was not - this would have severely damaged NHC s credibility in the future.

12 Why were there no Hurricane Warnings for Sandy?

13 Coastal Residents Weather Sources During Sandy

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15 Sandy Becoming An Extratropical Cyclone

16 Sandy s Surface Structure at Landfall

17 Peak sustained winds during Sandy

18 Sandy Rainfall Totals Sandy Snowfall Totals

19 Inundation Depths From Sandy

20 Sandy s Impacts in New York and New Jersey

21 So what can be done differently Fix the problem: in the future? At the 2012 NOAA Hurricane Conference, it was decided to allow NHC flexibility to issue multiple advisories on posttropical cyclones for landfalling systems (or close bypassers). This requires revision of the Hurricane Warning definition: An announcement that sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, sub-tropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.

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24 So what can be done differently Fix the problem: in the future? At the 2012 NOAA Hurricane Conference, it was decided to allow NHC flexibility to issue multiple advisories on posttropical cyclones for landfalling systems (or close bypassers). This requires revision of the Hurricane Warning definition: An announcement that sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, sub-tropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.

25 appaport 2014

26 New Inundation Graphics

27 Issued During Hurricane Arthur

28 Can Surge and Wind Be Warned for Separately?

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30 Changes made to NHC operations Ability to issue advisories/warnings for post-tropical cyclones added 2014 Inundation graphics issued for Hurricane Arthur 2015 Storm Surge Warnings will debut

31 Lessons Learned Every significant impact tropical cyclone reveals some aspect not previously anticipated Flexibility is needed in products for a range of possibilities Clear communication with easy-tounderstand graphics is essential Consistency within the National Weather Service is crucial to elicit the right response

32 Case Studies in Communication Challenges: Hurricane Sandy International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones Jeju Island, South Korea Chris Landsea, National Hurricane Center, RSMC Miami