Hurricane Irma Page 1 HURRTRAK RM/Pro 2017 Summary Report for Tampa, FL 09/10/ EDT, Adv. # 46

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1 Hurricane Irma Page 1 Description of impact to Tampa, FL, Tampa, FL, is expected to receive a major impact from Hurricane Irma. The forecast maximum wind for this location has increased since the last forecast advisory by 2 s Northeasterly gale force are already impacting the area with storm force arriving Sunday, September 10th at 6 PM EDT and Northeasterly hurricane force by 9 PM EDT. The highest wind speeds from Hurricane Irma should occur near Monday, September 11th at 1 AM EDT when top sustained, from the East, could reach 98 s with gusts near 119 s. Based on the current forecast, there is a good chance that Tampa, FL will experience the eye wall of the storm, with the passage of the eye on Monday, September 11th at 2 AM EDT. This could result in higher wind speeds than expected. In addition, if this is a coastal location, storm surge levels may be at their highest. Winds should decrease below hurricane force 5 hours later. Sustained will fall below gale force after 1 PM EDT and generally be from the Southwest during this period of decreasing. Expect gusts above gale force level for several more hours thereafter. Wind from Hurricane Irma could be quite extensive with some homes shifted off of their foundation, roofs removed and collapse of some exterior walls. The total rainfall for the Tampa, FL area over the next 5 days is forecast to be 9. inches. This can vary significantly as tropical storm and hurricane rainfall is very difficult to predict. Latest Position: 184 nm. South (164 degrees) of Tampa, FL, Latitude Longitude Motion (s) Wind Speed (s) Central Pressure (mb) 64 NE 64 SE 64 SW / NW Wind Probabilities for Tampa, FL, 34 Knots (39 mph) 50 Knots (58 mph) 64 Knots (74 mph) Forecast Impact Summary for Tampa, FL, Hurricane Irma Page 1 50 NE 50 SE 50 SW 50 NW 34 NE 34 SE 34 SW 34 NW Eye diam Eye wall

2 Hurricane Irma Page 2 Max Wind (avg/gust) Max Wind Date/Time CPA Rain Arr. hrs. Time of arrival Time of departure Dur ation 98 / 119 s. Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT 6 nm. 9.0" Currently above 09/11/ :00 EDT N/A /10/ :00 EDT 09/11/ :00 EDT /10/ :30 EDT 09/11/ :00 EDT 10 Hurricane Irma Page 2

3 Hurricane Irma Page 3 Forecast Impact Detail Date / Time Time of Day Wind Speed (avg/gust) Wind Dir. (degs.) to 34 to 50 to 64 to center Comments Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT DAY 036/044 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :00 EDT DAY 038/045 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT DAY 039/047 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :00 EDT DAY 040/048 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT DAY 041/050 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :00 EDT DAY 042/051 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT DAY 043/052 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :00 EDT DAY 044/054 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT DAY 045/055 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :00 EDT DAY 0/056 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT DAY 047/057 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :00 EDT DAY 048/058 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT DAY 049/059 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :00 EDT DAY 050/060 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT DAY 051/062 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :00 EDT DAY 053/064 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT DAY 055/067 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :00 EDT NIGHT 057/069 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT NIGHT 059/072 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :00 EDT NIGHT 062/075 s Minor Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT NIGHT 064/077 s Minimal Sunday, 09/10/ :00 EDT NIGHT 065/079 s Minimal Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT NIGHT 067/082 s Minimal Sunday, 09/10/ :00 EDT NIGHT 072/087 s Minimal Sunday, 09/10/ :30 EDT NIGHT 077/093 s Minimal Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT NIGHT 084/102 s Moderate Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT NIGHT 092/112 s Moderate Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT NIGHT 098/119 s * Eye Wall *, Extensive Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT NIGHT 096/116 s * Eye Wall *, Extensive Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT NIGHT 000/000 s * Eye * Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT NIGHT 000/000 s * Eye * Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT NIGHT 092/111 s * Eye Wall *, Moderate Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT NIGHT 089/107 s Moderate Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT NIGHT 080/096 s Minimal Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT NIGHT 073/088 s Minimal Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT NIGHT 068/083 s Minimal Hurricane Irma Page 3

4 Hurricane Irma Page 4 Date / Time Time of Day Wind Speed (avg/gust) Wind Dir. (degs.) to 34 to 50 to 64 to center Comments Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT NIGHT 065/079 s Minimal Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT NIGHT 064/077 s Minimal Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT NIGHT 063/076 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT DAY 061/074 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT DAY 059/072 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT DAY 058/070 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT DAY 054/066 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT DAY 051/062 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT DAY 048/058 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT DAY 0/055 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT DAY 043/053 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT DAY 041/050 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT DAY 039/047 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT DAY 037/045 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT DAY 035/043 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT DAY 034/041 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT DAY 032/038 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT DAY 030/036 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT DAY 029/035 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :00 EDT DAY 027/033 s Minor Monday, 09/11/ :30 EDT DAY 026/031 s Minor Hurricane Irma Page 4

5 Hurricane Irma Page 5 NHC Public Advisory TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep AL IRMA HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST......WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION N 81.5W ABOUT 80 MI KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI KM SSE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS MPH KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MB INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River Florida Keys Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass Florida Keys Lake Okeechobee Florida Bay Cuban provinces of Matanzas and La Habana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... Bimini and Grand Bahama A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening Hurricane Irma Page 5

6 Hurricane Irma Page 6 NHC Public Advisory inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 81.5 West. Irma is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h, and a north-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, with that motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move over the Lower Florida Keys shortly, and then move near or over the west coast of the Florida Peninsula later today through tonight. Irma should then move inland over northern Florida and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While weakening is forecast, Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane while it moves near or along the west coast of Florida. Hurricane-force extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A 120 mph (193 km/h) gust was recently reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key. A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust of 94 mph (151 km/h) was reported at the Federal Aviation Administration station at Miami International Airport. A pressure of 940 mb (27.75 inches) was measured in the calm of the eye on Upper Sugarloaf Key. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the Hurricane Irma Page 6

7 Hurricane Irma Page 7 NHC Public Advisory tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys... 5 to 10 ft Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay... 5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay... 3 to 5 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...2 to 4 ft North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels along the north coast of Cuba will gradually subside today. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through this morning. Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Northwestern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Western Cuba...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. The Florida Keys...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and Hurricane Irma Page 7

8 Hurricane Irma Page 8 NHC Public Advisory western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous will return very quickly when the eye moves away. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. Forecaster Pasch Hurricane Irma Page 8

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