The Wind Hazard: Messaging the Wind Threat & Corresponding Potential Impacts

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1 The Wind Hazard: Messaging the Wind Threat & Corresponding Potential Impacts Scott Spratt Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Melbourne, FL David Sharp Science & Operations Officer NWS Melbourne, FL

2 How do we use the best technology, modeling and science

3 How do we use the best technology, modeling and science

4 to forecast & communicate impacts to infrastructure

5 and ultimately impacts to people!

6 Communicating Complex Information The majority of the NWS audience are not weather experts! When providing information for planning purposes, we must speak the language of the customer. MET DSS EM PUBLIC

7 Communicating Complex Information Our science-based wind information must be: Distilled made concise and focused Translated covert to easy to understand language Interpreted maintain meaning

8 Packaging and phrasing the message - MET function - DSS function Decision Support Service (DSS) Cycle Routine vs customer-specific

concept Confusion leads to delayed action A

the goal Internally, inter-agency and among

9 The Challenges of Messaging concept Conflicting information leads to confusion concept Confusion leads to delayed action A clear, consistent and unified message is the goal Internally, inter-agency and among partners The bottom line really is: be alert, be prepared, but also be wary of long-range projections that go beyond what the science can offer.

10 Managing the message Decision Support Messaging WHAT WHERE WHEN HOW MUCH HOW LONG HOW SURE Public Safety Messaging WHAT AM I SUPPOSED TO DO ABOUT IT

11 Very Long-term Outreach Climatology Seasonal Outlook Getting the Message Out About Potential Impacts WFO Knowledge of Potential Impacts - Conceptual Model Example: Wind Hazard I The Time We Know The Most Long-term Hazards Outlook Information Statement Mid-term Watch Warning Hurricane Statement (HLS) Impact Bulletin (TCV) Threat & Impact Graphics (HTI) I I I Short-term TCV HLS HTI Updates I 100 WFO Knowledge Very Short-term Updates Tornado Warning (TOR) Extreme Wind Warning (EWW) Throughout DSS Briefings Media Interviews Social Media Posts NWSChat updates Day 7 Day 5 Day 3 H48 H36 H24 H12 H IMPACT User Needs Plan/Prepare Implement According to Plan Last Chance Recovery

Question Which of the following options should you use as your planning forecast for wind (i.e. least regret forecast to err on the side of caution, for the protection of life and property)?

12 Question Which of the following options should you use as your planning forecast for wind (i.e. least regret forecast to err on the side of caution, for the protection of life and property)? A) Most likely alternative scenario B) The official (NWS, NHC) forecast C) Worst case scenario D) Reasonable worst case scenario E) Update from weather app you just found

13 Question Which of the following options should you use as your planning forecast for wind (i.e. least regret forecast to err on the side of caution, for the protection of life and property)? A) Most likely alternative scenario B) The official (NWS, NHC) forecast C) Worst case scenario D) Reasonable worst case scenario E) Update from weather app you just found

14 Scenario Types for Decision Support Official Forecast Most Likely Alternate Scenario DSS Reasonable Worst Case Scenario

15 Scenario Types Latest Forecast Deterministic (implies precision) Uncertainty not taken into account Official Forecast

Messaging Uncertainty: Latest Forecast The NWS has long provided deterministic forecasts (i.e. most likely outcome) Scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

However, deterministic forecasts can become problematic for high impact events Hurricane conditions expected.

16 Messaging Uncertainty: Latest Forecast The NWS has long provided deterministic forecasts (i.e. most likely outcome) Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures in the mid 90s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. However, deterministic forecasts can become problematic for high impact events Hurricane conditions expected. Periods of showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds 90 to 110 mph with gusts up to 135 mph.

17 Scenario Types Most Likely Alternate Scenario The alternative outcome which is next likely to occur if the most likely scenario does not come to pass Recognizes potential for error associated with the latest forecast and/or most likely scenario such that an alternate scenario should also be considered Secondary planning forecast ( what if ), differs from official forecast ; describes possible trend; remember the need for consistent messaging.

18 October 2, 2016

19 October 2, 2016

20 Scenario Types Reasonable Worst Case Scenario Probability based; defined as only a 10% probability of being exceeded; location specific i.e. Safety Margin Forecast (incorporate into evacuation planning to err on the side of caution)

21 To be Safe, Prepare for This

22 To be Safe, Prepare for This

23 Hurricane Threats and Impacts - Wind Mosaic HURRICANE WIND THREAT

24 Wind Hazard Major Hurricane Force (> 96 kt) Hurricane Force (64-95 kt) Strong Tropical Storm Force (50-63 kt) Tropical Storm Force (34-49 kt) How does HTI Wind help support preparedness actions? Less Than Tropical Storm Force (< 34 kt) Forecast: Highest Wind Expected? Potential: Highest Wind Threat X?? X X? X Most Likely Scenario Reasonable Worst Case Scenario

25 Tropical Cyclone Winds concept To help with Messaging the Hurricane Forecast Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 1 Hurricane Some Damage Category 2 Hurricane Extensive Damage Category 3 Hurricane Devastating Damage Category 4 Hurricane Catastrophic Damage Category 5 Hurricane Catastrophic Damage Cause vs. Effect

Tropical Cyclone Winds concept To help with Community Preparedness Messaging Hurricane Threats & Impacts Wind Scale Threat of Tropical Storm Winds (39-57 mph) Threat of Strong Tropical Storm Winds

26 Tropical Cyclone Winds concept To help with Community Preparedness Messaging Hurricane Threats & Impacts Wind Scale Threat of Tropical Storm Winds (39-57 mph) Threat of Strong Tropical Storm Winds (58-73 mph) Threat of Hurricane Winds ( mph) Threat of Major Hurricane Winds (111+ mph) Limited Impacts Possible Significant Impacts Possible Extensive Impacts Possible Devastating to Catastrophic Impacts Possible Threat vs. Potential Impacts

27 Impacts Bulletin (TCV Text Product)

28 TCV Text Product X

29 TCV Text Product X

A) Zip code-specific forecasts B) County-specific official forecast

30 Question Which of the following items are included within the TCV text product for wind? A) Zip code-specific forecasts B) County-specific official forecast C) County-specific reasonable worst case scenario D) County-specific potential impacts E) All of the above except A

31 Question Which of the following items are included within the TCV text product for wind? A) Zip code-specific forecasts B) County-specific official forecast C) County-specific reasonable worst case scenario D) County-specific potential impacts E) All of the above except A

32 What s the Main Message? From the Communications Desk Messaging Points for Media Interviews NWSChat Graphicasts; Infographics Flash Cards Social Media Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, etc.

33 G R A P H I C A S T

Hurricane Winds When wind speeds reach tropical storm strength, they become

That s why evacuation plans and shelter decisions are based on these speeds.

High Wind Safety Tips: Know your vulnerability relative to hurricane winds.

and at higher elevations are most susceptible.

35 Hurricane Winds When wind speeds reach tropical storm strength, they become dangerous. That s why evacuation plans and shelter decisions are based on these speeds. If winds reach hurricane strength, the threat to life and property significantly increases. The wind threat is extreme with hurricanes of Category 3 force or greater. High Wind Safety Tips: Know your vulnerability relative to hurricane winds. Those living in mobile homes, high rise buildings, along the immediate coast, and at higher elevations are most susceptible. If you are vulnerable to high winds, relocate to safer shelter. Securing doors and deploying shutters can help reduce the risk of property damage. Securing yard objects can help reduce the chance for dangerous projectiles. National Weather Service Melbourne, FL

36 Social Media: Partnering with Emergency Management Debunking Myths

38 The Wind Hazard: Messaging the Wind Threat & Corresponding Potential Impacts Scott Spratt Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Melbourne, FL David Sharp Science & Operations Officer NWS Melbourne, FL

Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support

Scenario-based Language for Hurricane Decision Support David Sharp NOAA/National Weather Service Melbourne, FL Pablo Santos NOAA/National Weather Service Miami, FL Weather Model Outcomes (as seen on TV)