Hydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia

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1 Hydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia Justin Robinson, Jeff Perkins and Bruce Quig Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

2 The Bureau's Hydrological Forecasting Services Seasonal Forecasts 7 Day Forecasts Flood Warning Service The Seasonal Forecasting Service commenced in 2010 The 7 day forecasts commenced in August and was the first service using forecasts provided by HyFS. The Bureau has been providing flood warnings for over 50 years. HyFS will become fully operational in all forecasting centres this year.

3 Australian Flood Warning Service Forecasting Decision Making Response Bureau Emergency Services Community The flood forecasting service is a partnership across all levels of government. Strong working relationships are essential. A great forecast is worth nothing if there is no response!

4 Flooding in Australia Western Australia: Many large river basins in the north, but sparsely populated. Southwest WA: Large decrease in rainfall and little recent flooding. Inland Australia: Little rainfall and rivers do not flow to the ocean. Most of the Australian population lives along the east coast and is flood-affected Great Dividing Range East: Many small rivers flowing east to the sea. West: Large river basins that flow west into the Murray Darling Basin. Tasmania: Many small rivers and a large amount of hydropower generation.

5 Institutional Arrangements are Essential There are three levels of government in Australia National (Bureau), State and Local. The Bureau is actively engaged in consolidating the institutional arrangements. The Australia - New Zealand Emergency Management Committee (ANZEMC) provides an agreed and clear allocation of roles responsibilities. There are Flood Warning Consultative Committees (FWCC) in each state. Roles are documented in National and State Arrangements.

6 Roles and Responsibilities The Bureau is generally responsible for the rain gauge network State and local government are generally responsible for the river gauge network Bureau issues warnings and forecasts river levels at key locations State Emergency Services and local government interpret the forecasts and ensure that the community responds River gauges ~ 2600 (5 per cent Bureau) Rain gauges ~ 4100 (50 per cent Bureau)

7 The Bureau's Flood Warning Services Primary products:» Rainfall and river alerts» Flood Watch» Flood Scenarios» Flood Warnings» Flood data and information Products aimed to match user needs for» Planning, Preparation, Response, Recovery (PPRR)» Predictions for rising limb, peak and falling limb based on agreed flood classifications

8 Effective Decision Making Requires Flood Intelligence A great forecast is worth nothing if we don't know what actions to take The collection of flood intelligence is a key responsibility of the emergency management organisations.» What is the impact of forecast floods levels?» What protective actions need to be taken?» When and who needs to take action?

9 Flood intelligence is used to provide Flood Classifications Minor: closes minor roads and low level bridges Moderate: inundation of low lying areas, may require evacuations, major bridges cut Major: extensive rural inundation, towns isolated, urban areas flooded

10 Flood intelligence cards (NSW SES) Links gauge heights to flood effects and actions. The first flood intelligence cards were developed in the 1970s & 80 s. First databases in Large data set derived from actual floods less from design (synthetic) events. NSW SES 2015

11 An integrated flood intelligence system (Victoria) Outcome of the Victorian Floods Review (2011) was the development of an integrated flood intelligence system FloodZoom» Flood Warnings and Forecasts» Real Time Observations» Flood Mapping» Property Details» Sharing information with other agencies The user can fully interact with the available flood intelligence and real time data and forecasts. DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT LAND WATER AND PLANNING VICTORIA

12 Ensuring that agencies and the community take action Community readiness Warnings and forecasts that are clearly communicated Supporting evidence from multiple sources Consistent messaging across all organisations and communication channels Confidence in the Bureau's forecasts Requires strong personal and institutional relationships between the Bureau and response agencies

13 Community Readiness The Bureau undertakes pre-season tours to ensure that communities are ready. Tours are undertaken in conjunction with severe weather (cyclone season), emergency services and local government. Personal engagement with stakeholders is essential when the critical decisions need to be made.

14 Flood Watch Provides a heads up for possible future flooding. Usually 2-4 days notice. Based on rainfall forecasts and is developed in close consultation between the meteorologists, hydrologists and emergency services. Very important service because it is used by agencies to reallocate resources and prepare for potential flooding.

15 Flood Warnings The Bureau talks to the emergency services they need additional context to take action on important forecasts. Emergency Services add additional safety advice and actions to be undertaken when communicating to the public. The SES communicate the information at the local level to the community effected.

16 Warning Entry Tool (WET) New tool for entering flood warnings Efficient and consistent production of flood forecasts and warnings Encodes numerical forecasts (level, time, type, likelihood) that can support new forecasting products and integrate with flood intelligence systems like FloodZoom Integration with HyFS the forecaster can monitor issued forecasts in real time

17 Web based services Plots, tables and maps of the latest rainfall and river information updated at least hourly Provides important context to the flood warnings and forecasts

18 Future Plans for Improving Web Services Spatial warnings Making our knowledge available

19 Social Media - Twitter Can provide important contextual information that cannot be included in the flood warning Important communication channel for the media and public

20 Flood Forecasting Service Trajectory Moving from Deterministic predictions Best effort QPF from duty forecaster Event-based riverine flood models Peak predictions for point locations Assistance with flash flood Text based human readable products To deliver Ensemble predictions showing uncertainty Specialist QPF services utilising ensembles Continuous flood and flow (7-10 days) Full hydrograph forecasts National Flash Flood Information Repository Machine readable products integrated with downstream decision support systems

21 Next Gen Hydrological Forecasting System - HyFS Stage 1 Requirements and Procurement (2012) Stage 2 HyFS Functional System (2013) Stage 3 Stage 4 HyDS National Data System (2013/14) Model Migration and Integration (2014) Stage 5 Operational Cutover (2015) HyFS Metadata Management System Stage 6 Service Harmonisation and Automation HyFS 2020 T 0

22 Business Drivers for HyFS Efficient, robust and sustainable flood warning service National system with service delivery from regional and national offices Meets operational best practice high level of availability, ready for the COI Better use of weather forecasting guidance NexGen, ACCESS, ECMWF Supports current forecasting techniques URBS, SWIFT, Peak Heights, Realises benefits from investment in R&D can evolve to utilise new advances Supports collaboration with forecasting agencies in Australia and overseas

23 What's Next HyFS 2020 ( ) To build on HyFS to automate and harmonise manual services Build the capability of HyFS to deliver products and services Automated Alerting Automated Flash Flood Guidance Automated Flood Scenarios Enterprise Archiving Solution for the Flood Warning Observation Data

24 Automated Alerting Heavy rainfall bulletin Tasmania river alerts River height bulletin Twitter Like Alert Message?

25 Automated Riverine Flash Flood Guidance Catchment Wetness Forecast Rainfall Flash Flood Threat Automated flash flood guidance product. Would replace the current manual riverine flash flood service in NSW Extension of Automated Alerting? Continuous hydrological modelling? Short-Term Ensemble forecasts? Nowcasts?

26 Flood scenario product A service that may be driven by ensemble rainfall forecasts? Victorian Flood Scenario Product What additional contextual information do the emergency service require to interpret these forecasts? 7 day forecast using NOAA's Globe Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) rainfall forecasts.

27 Conclusions Effective decision making requires strong institutional and personal relationships between the forecasting and response agencies as well as the community. The Bureau is responsible for forecasting while the state based emergency services are responsible for deciding on the appropriate response. Flood intelligence is critical in determining what actions needs be taken. Forecasts and warnings need to be clearly communicated across multiple communication channels together with contextual information and personal briefings between the forecaster and the emergency response agencies. HyFS is going to be fully operational by the end of the year. Plans are in place to leverage off its capability to automate, harmonise and enhance our services.

28 Thank you Any questions?