Planning for the Threat Preparing for the Impacts The Role of the Local Forecast

Transcription

1 Planning for the Threat Preparing for the Impacts The Role of the Local Forecast 2014 Florida Governor Hurricane Conference Pablo Santos NOAA/NWS WFO Miami, FL FLGHC

2 FLGHC Decision Support Services Increased efforts toward a greater emphasis on DSS. Part of NOAA s Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) initiative. Practical Application: For places subject to tropical cyclones, we re interested in developing Hurricane- Ready communities. A nation that is ready; a society that responds. Concepts that already emanate from Storm-Ready & Tsunami-Ready Not a Certification Program!!! Strengthened partnerships: Hurricane Message Creation More closely with emergency management Hurricane Message Delivery More closely with the media

3 Planning for the Threat Preparing for the Impacts In order to help you plan for the threat: We must make a threat assessment. Latest official forecast Factor uncertainty and level of confidence What is the threat? Reasonable chance tropical storm/hurricane force/major hurricane force winds will be experienced. Reasonable chance that coastal inundation will be experienced. To individual partners/customers/public, chance particular thresholds will be exceeded. The same applies to other tropical storm/hurricane hazards: rain flooding and tornadoes. In order to prepare for the impacts: One must first recognize them once the threat assessment is made And finally a message must be crafted and communicated To help our partners filter the information clutter and make good decisions FLGHC We refer to this as the decision support cycle, and it is what we do at NWS offices

4 Communicate Message The Role of the Local Forecast MET = Forecast Operations Team ERS = Emergency Response Specialist(s) Specific Customer(s) Start / Repeat Unique Thresholds Assess Threats General Customer(s) Universal Thresholds Decision Support Cycle Tropical Cyclone Operations Recognize Impacts

5 Plug In Here Training Session 23 (On Tuesday) Local Wind Forecast and its Uncertainty; Local Applications of Wind Speed Probabilities Local Wind Impact Recognition/Messaging; Local Surge Forecast Forecast Local Surge Impact Recognition/Messaging Local rain flooding and tornado forecasts Rain flooding/tornado impact recognition/messaging WFO Tropical Storm/Hurricane Decision Support Services Weather Ready Nation Training Session 24 - Conveying Uncertainty to the Public : NWS/Media - Wed Afternoon Training Session 25- NWS Graphics for Media, PIO, and EM Planners Wed Afternoon Workshop New Ways the NWS is Communicating Tropical Cyclone Hazards Thu Afternoon Workshop 142 Wind Forecasting: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Friday Morning FLGHC

6 A Second Algorithm Example Advisory Time: _1500 (0-12 Hours First Period) CHARLEY (ZFP) * Punta Gorda Hurricane Charley (ZFP) FLGHC

7 Example: Forecast Applications: Expressions of Uncertainty Advisory Time: _1500 (25-36 Hours Third Period) FRANCES (ZFP) FRANCES (Click Point) Official in 2014

8 New Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) Affected Area Headline/Primary Message New Information primarily pulled from TCP and grids Brief Overview for entire Local Area FLGHC

9 New HLS Potential Impacts Uncertainty wording Order based on largest expected impact Information formatted using bullets/type lists making it easier to read and parse out of the document. Easier to decode by vendors, web, and smart device based applications Future plans include consideration for use of other more industry standard format (xml, etc) FLGHC

10 Threshold/Triggering Threat/Planning New WFO Local Watch/Warning Statement WIND When Supporting Decision-Makers - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: EQUIVALENT CAT 1 HURRICANE FORCE WIND - PEAK SUSTAINED WIND FORECAST: MPH WITH GUSTS TO 110 MPH - WINDOW FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS: SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING - WINDOW FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS: SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY (WITH SAFETY MARGIN): EXTREME - THREAT TREND: LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST - MAKE PLANS: FOR THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND COULD LOCALLY REACH MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE; ENACT YOUR EMERGENCY ACTION PLAN ACCORDINGLY - TAKE ACTION: FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING WIND TO POSSIBLY OCCUR; FAILURE TO ACT MAY RESULT IN INJURY OR LOSS OF LIFE - PREPARE: FOR THE CHANCE OF DEVASTATING TO CATASTROPHIC WIND IMPACTS BASED ON THREAT ASSESSMENT THAT CONSIDERS PLAUSIBLE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR SAFETY TCV

11 Impact/Preparation New WFO Local Watch/Warning Statement WIND When Supporting Decision-Makers - POTENTIAL IMPACTS (FOR PLAUSIBLE WORST CASE): DEVASTATING - STRUCTURES: MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS WITH SOME HAVING COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURES; COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES - ROADS AND BRIDGES: MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS - TREES AND SIGNS: NUMEROUS LARGE TREES UPROOTED AND MANY LARGE SIGNS BLOWN DOWN - POWER OUTAGES: WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING LONG-TERM OUTAGES TCV

12 Threshold Triggering Impact Preparation Threat/Planning STORM SURGE AND TIDE When Supporting Decision-Makers - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: MAJOR STORM SURGE FLOODING - PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION: 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN SURGE PRONE AREAS - WINDOW FOR STORM SURGE INUNDATION: SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY (WITH SAFETY MARGIN): HIGH - THREAT TREND: INCREASING - MAKE PLANS: FOR THE CHANCE THAT SURGE INUNDATION COULD LOCALLY REACH 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE WITHIN SURGE PRONE AREAS - TAKE ACTION: FOR VERY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO POSSIBLY OCCUR; FAILURE TO ACT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF LIFE - PREPARE: FOR THE CHANCE OF EXTENSIVE STORM SURGE IMPACTS BASED ON A THREAT ASSESSMENT THAT CONSIDERS THE PLAUSIBLE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR SAFETY - POTENTIAL IMPACTS (FOR PLAUSIBLE WORST CASE): EXTENSIVE - STRUCTURES: MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SHORELINE BUILDINGS FROM OCEAN WATER AND BATTERING WAVES; SOME WASHED INTO THE SEA - ROADS: SECTIONS OF ROADS AND LOW-LYING ESCAPE ROUTES SEVERELY FLOODED OR WASHED OUT - BEACHES: SEVERE BEACH EROSION; POSSIBLE NEW CUTS; EXTREME RIP CURRENTS - MARINE: MAJOR DAMAGE TO NEARBY PORTS DOCKS AND MARINAS; MANY SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS; SOME LIFTED AND STRANDED INLAND TCV

13 New WFO Local Watch/Warning Statement Companion to revised HLS Coding with all watches and warnings in effect Locations Affected: Where Statement of Confidence Wind: Emphasis is on specific hazard information to the sub county level to include also: What, When, How Long Potential Impacts Information is based on official forecast and implicit used of probabilistic information FLGHC

14 New WFO Local Watch/Warning Statement In addition to Wind: Surge Rainfall Tornadoes FLGHC

15 Threat/Potential Impact Graphics Deterministic NHC track/intensity forecast used by WFO s to create local wind forecasts (location/timing specific) Example: A major hurricane approximately 36-hours from projected landfall (Hurricane Warning issued). WFO s Probabalistic NHC wind probabilities also incorporated to produce Impact Graphics NHC 34 kt probability NHC NHC 64 kt probability

16 Threat/Potential Impact Graphics Official Forecast Actual Threat/Potential Impacts Example: Approaching major hurricane at the onset of the warning period (~ 36 hours). Remember to consider the trend with these from advisory to advisory also. Notice implicit use of probabilistic information FLGHC QUESTION: When advocating the measure of protective actions according to wind impacts, which is better?

17 Potential Inundation Graphic (2014) Not a deterministic inundation graphic! Based on exceedance graphics (10%, 20%, 30%?) Values above ground level are potential values given exceedance chosen. More suited to help decision makers refine evacuation decisions Threat/Impact Graphics more suited for messaging of area wide threat and potential impact/what people should be preparing for FLGHC

18 Take Away During tropical cyclones, local NWS offices provide a variety of products and services based on the decision support cycle of threat assessment, impacts recognition, messaging, and communication. Through our own public forecasts Hurricane Local Statements (social science) Tropical Cyclone Threat/Potential Impact graphics (social science) Briefs, Webinar, and conference calls (most effective to EM) Emphasis is on what, where, when, and for how long. This pertains to the threat. And Potential impacts We see our role as that of dissecting complex information making it relevant to you. Web: and click over your local area. Goal is to help you Plan for the Threat/Prepare for the Impacts FLGHC Are there any plans to better integrate access to info including new enhanced products and services on the Web?

19 Mock-up NHC Storm Information WFO Local Information Common Operating Picture Item: NOTE: Click on Storm will open page with NHC page on that storm. We can also bring that page within a pop up window in the context of this page or open a new tab sending to NHC page. Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics DS/PS/SW

20 Mock-up HURRICANE OMEGA NHC Storm Information WFO Local Information Item: Advisories Coastal Watches/Warnings Wind Speed Forecast Projected Track & Uncertainty Cone Wind Speed Probabilities Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics DS/PS/SW

21 Mock-up HURRICANE OMEGA NHC Storm Information WFO Local Information Item: NOTE: Other desired features here include ability to activate other popular layers such as Radar, Satellite, Hazards (including all Watches/Warnings). Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics DS/PS/SW

22 Mock-up HURRICANE OMEGA NHC Storm Information WFO Local Information Item: NOTE: Click over your local area (where you live) for local information Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics DS/PS/SW

23 Mock-up HURRICANE OMEGA NHC Storm Information WFO Local Information Local Forecast Local Statements Local Threats/Impacts Threat Meter Legend Hurricane Warning Item: NOTE: Click anywhere in the map with Local Forecast option active. If in Neighborhood mode you get point and click, otherwise you get county/zone based forecast. Display Watches and Warnings layers in the background. Legend should include all watches/warnings plotted. Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics Neighborhood County DS/PS/SW

24 Mock-up HURRICANE OMEGA NHC Storm Information WFO Local Information Local Forecast Local Statements Local Threats/Impacts Threat Meter Legend Hurricane Warning Item: NOTE: Click anywhere in the map with Local Forecast option active. If in Neighborhood mode you get point and click, otherwise you get county/zone based forecast. Display Watches and Warnings layers in the background. Legend should include all watches/warnings plotted. Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics Neighborhood County DS/PS/SW

25 Mock-up HURRICANE OMEGA NHC Storm Information WFO Local Information Local Forecast Local Statements Local Threats/Impacts Threat Meter Legend Hurricane Warning Item: NOTE: With Local Statement option on, if in Areawide mode when the user clicks over a particular area the HLS from the corresponding office should pop up in a window with scrolling capability. If none is available state so. Display Watches and Warnings layers in the background. Legend should include all watches/warnings plotted. Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics Areawide County DS/PS/SW

26 Mock-up HURRICANE OMEGA NHC Storm Information WFO Local Information Local Forecast Local Statements Local Threats/Impacts Threat Meter Legend Hurricane Warning Item: NOTE: With Local Statement option on, if in County mode when the user clicks over a particular area the information from the local TCV statement for that ZONE should pop up in a scroll up window. Display Watches and Warnings layers in the background. Legend should include all watches/warnings plotted. Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics Areawide Statement County DS/PS/SW

27 Mock-up HURRICANE OMEGA NHC Storm Information WFO Local Information Local Forecast Local Statements Local Threats/Impacts Threat Meter Item: NOTE: With Threats & Impacts button active, users should be able to switch among hazards from tabs at the bottom. The threat of a hazard is depicted on the map, and the potential impact is revealed if a user clicks on the map in a pop-up. Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics Wind Storm Surge Flooding Rain Tornadoes DS/PS/SW

28 Mock-up HURRICANE OMEGA NHC Storm Information WFO Local Information Local Forecast Local Statements Local Threats/Impacts Threat Meter Hurricane Omega Item: NOTE: Click anywhere to get a combined threat assessment from wind, storm surge, flooding rain, and tornadoes for your location. Background maps defaults to Wind but can be changed by clicking on the appropriate hazard tab below. This THREAT-METER is extracted from the threat grids already existing in the Tropical o Point and Click County Cyclone Impacts Graphics NDFD. Wind Storm Surge Flooding Rain Tornadoes DS/PS/SW

29 Mock-up HURRICANE OMEGA NHC Storm Information WFO Local Information Local Forecast Local Statements Local Threats/Impacts Threat Meter Hurricane Omega Item: NOTE: Click anywhere to get a combined composite max threat assessment from wind, storm surge, flooding rain, and tornadoes for your county. Background maps defaults to Wind but can be changed by clicking on the appropriate hazard tab below. This THREAT-METER is extracted from the threat grids already existing in the Tropical o Point and Click County Cyclone Impacts Graphics NDFD. Wind Storm Surge Flooding Rain Tornadoes DS/PS/SW