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1 National Weather Service Performance and Challenges Warning Systems Kenneth E. Graham Meteorologist-in-Charge New Orleans
2 Busy 2008 Number of Tornadoes Number of Tornado Fatalities *Preliminary So Far This Year * * Greensburg, KS
3 Super Tuesday February 5 through 6, 2008: 82 tornadoes including 5 EF4s 57 fatalities; most since May 31 st, 1985 and 13 th all time 350+ injuries > 400M in property damage 36 (63%) killed were in mobile homes Most of the tornadoes occurred after dark
4 Super Tuesday Even with advanced notice of the event and individual severe storms, there was still a large loss of life
5 Communication Prior to Outbreak SPC Day 6 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued: Jan. 30, 2008 Valid: Feb 5-6, 2008 Tornado, Wind, Hail Reports NWS began publicizing the potential for severe weather 6 days in advance of the outbreak.
6 Communication Prior to Outbreak Hatched area depicts the potential for significant EF2-EF5 tornadoes. Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued: Sun (2am), Feb 3. Valid: Feb 5-6 Day 1 Tornado Probability Issued and Valid Tue, Feb 5 NWS forecasts were further refined leading up to February 5, 2008
7 Communication Prior to Outbreak NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) advertised the potential for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, in their Hazardous Weather Outlooks (HWOs) as early as Thursday, January 31, Subsequent HWOs throughout the weekend refined the timing and magnitude of the threat. WFOs used conference calls, Go-To Meeting, /text alerts, and graphical HWOs to provide situational awareness. WFOs used IEM Chat and 800MHz to communicate with media and emergency manager partners.
8 Warning Lead Time Performance: Average lead time for tornado warnings was 18 minutes (17 minutes for tornadoes causing fatalities)
9 What Happened?
10 What Happened?
11
12
13 Storm Based Warnings Previously
14 Hurricane Season 2008 Tropical Storm Arthur Hurricane Bertha Tropical Storm Cristobal Hurricane Dolly Tropical Storm Edouard Tropical Storm Fay Hurricane Gustav Hurricane Hanna Hurricane Ike Tropical Storm Josephine
15 Storm Surge Bay St. Louis, MS
16 Communicating Impacts Routine Becomes Extreme Text Products Graphical Products Statements Discussions Stand-Alone Daily Forecast Impact Statements Live Go-To Meetings Briefings Press Conference Stand-By Life or Death
17 Communicating Impacts The following slides are the actual slides used during a situational awareness presentation
18 Communicating Impacts
19 Gustav Storm Surge
20 Communicating Impacts
21 Communicating Impacts
22 Communicating Impacts
23 Communicating Impacts The following slides are the actual slides we used during a situational awareness presentation
24 Communicating Impacts
25 Communicating Impacts
26 Communicating Impacts
27 Gustav SLOSH estimate using 50 nm RMW
28 Gustav estimate if ~ 10 knots stronger
29 Note that only 10 knots makes the difference between west bank communities dry or wet Faster Slower
30 Single Track Storm Surge Plot
31 Single Track Storm Surge Plot (moved track west)
32 Single Track Storm Surge Plot (moved track east)
33 Multiple Track Storm Surge Plot
34 Communicating Impacts
35 Communicating Impacts Time Event* 0300 Internal Coordination 0700 Governor Briefing 0800 SE Parish Task Force 0900 Internal Coordination 1000 New Orleans FEB 1100 MS Counties Briefing 1500 Internal Coordination 1600 SE Parish Task Force 1700 New Orleans FEB 1800 Governor Briefing *Does not include briefings on demand, press conferences, or media interviews
36 Future Improvements Improving Services for Future: Radar Advancements Super Resolution Doppler Radar Dual-Polarization Radars Phased Array Radar Warning Dissemination Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) Cell Phone Reverse 911 In Car Information GIS Storm Decision Aids Uncertainty Communication
37 Future Improvements Improving Services for Future: Hurricane Forecast Improvement Research Intensity Track Storm Surge
38 Future Improvements PAR PAR Advancements In Radar Technology Phased Array compared to WSR-88D KTLX KTLX
39 Future Improvements Improved Social Science Integration WAS*IS Strong Emergency Management Ties Target Those At Risk Continue Strong Partnerships Related to NOAA Weather Radio Transmitters Receivers Weather Radio Improvement Project (WRIP)
40 Continue to Grow Our All Hazards Partnership Incident Support
41
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