Hurricane Charley: A Retrospective 2014 Florida Governor s Hurricane Conference

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1 Hurricane Charley: A Retrospective 2014 Florida Governor s Hurricane Conference

2 2004 Hurricane Season: Storm Tracks

3 Satellite Images of 2004 Hurricanes Charley Frances Ivan Jeanne

4 Three Hurricanes in Polk County in 1 Year! Last Hurricane was in 1960

5 2004 Hurricane Season Statistics First system formed July 31, 2004 Last system dissipated December 5, 2004 Strongest storm Ivan, 165 mph (270 km/h) Total depressions 16 Total storms 15 Hurricanes 9 Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) 6 Total fatalities Total damage $44 billion in U.S.

6 2004 Storms That Hit Florida Name Dates Max Wind Direct Deaths U.S. Damage Bonnie Aug mph 3 Minor Charley Aug mph 15 $15.1 billion Frances Aug 25 Sep mph 7 $9.5 billion Ivan Sep mph 91 $18.8 billion Jeanne Sep mph 3,000+ $7 billion

7 2004 Hurricane Fatalities in Florida Storm Surge Wind/Wave Tornado Flood Wind Wave 32 direct hurricane deaths 91 indirect deaths The most since the 1935 Labor Day hurricane that hit the Florida Keys!

8 91 Indirect Fatalities Stress (15) Cleanup Debris Removal Roof Repair Power (23) 25% 38% 16% Cleanup (34) 13% 8% Total: 91 Indirect Fatalities Data: Florida Medical Examiners Commission Motor Vehicle (12) Other (7) Power Related Carbon Monoxide Candle Fire Electrocution Stress Related Heart Attack Suicide Storm Preparations Motor Vehicle Accident Roadway Obstruction Traffic Signal Outage Other Note: Not a comprehensive list of causes

9 2004 Hurricane Charley Daniel Noah NWS Tampa Bay Wayne Sallade Charlotte County EM Scott Spratt NWS Melbourne

10

11 Costliest U.S. Atlantic Hurricanes Adjusted for Inflation 9 of the Top 10 have occurred in the last ten years Charley in Florida - 9 direct fatalities - 20 indirect fatalities

12 Newspaper Headlines

13 Television Coverage

14 Charley Was Mainly a Wind Event Arcadia, FL

15 Newspaper Headline Perception is Reality Yellow Dots Actual Position

16 Storm Size Matters Determined by distance from center to outermost closed isobar <120 miles Very small/ midget Charley miles Small Allison miles Average Frances miles Large Wilma >480 miles Very large Gilbert weather.gov/tampabay

17 2004 Charley Size vs 1988 Gilbert Max Diameter of T.S. Force Winds 488 Miles weather.gov/tampabay

18 Charley vs Frances Wind Field Orange/Purple = Hurricane Wind, Green/Yellow = Tropical Storm Charley 2004 Frances 2004

19 2004 Hurricane Charley Landfall on Friday, August 13 Fast moving storm at 20 mph weather.gov/tampabay wunderground archive

20 2004 Hurricane Charley Makes Landfall

21 Very Small Eye Wall Damage Similar to 20 Mile Wide F2 Tornado

22 Charley Enters Charlotte Harbor Notice the moat

23 Hurricanes vs Mobile Homes

24 Boca Grande

25 Captiva

26 Hardee County No electricity in county for 9 days

27 The Power of Flowing Water

28

29 Dangers of Flooding from Heavy Rains Lannis Waters The Palm Beach Post A man was killed when his car went into the water covered hole on Highway 60 near Lake Wales during Charley

30 Charley Brought Out Different Sides of People

31 I Was in the Lee County Emergency Operations Center

32 How About Hurricane Intensity Forecasts? Over 23 years No improvement in first 24 hours Little improvement at 48 and 72 hours Big improvement at 96 and 120 hours

33 Damage Crossed Florida Tampa * Arcadia

34 All we could hear was yelling and screaming as widespread panic set in Widespread Panic I never felt so helpless and small in all my life. David Gaylord St. Petersburg, FL ~1,400 people were in this auditorium Photo Courtesy of Scott Moe

35 Hurricane Charley Well Inland

36 Surge and Wind Probabilities

37 Wind Probabilities Were Not Available in 2014 Chances of hurricaneforce winds at Tampa Bay and Port Charlotte are both around 30%

38 2004 Hurricane Charley s Eye Wall was Tiny 12 mile wide eye wall 7 ft surge

39 What if Charley was a Normal Size Storm? 50 mile wide eye wall 18 ft

40 New Surge Product Harnessing the power of Social Science and input from key partners in the Media and Emergency Management

41 Experimental Storm Surge Inundation Map Available on NHC website at Created when warning issued, about 48 hours before impact 45 to 60 minutes after Advisory issued Updated every 6 hours

42 Storm Surge Maps are in High Tide Example of 1-in-10 chance of water depth Not the worse case but a realistic worse case based on current storm

43 On NHC Website at Hurricanes.gov Fact Sheets Public Media Emergency Management

44 NWS Tampa Bay Social Media US.NationalWeatherService.TampaBay.gov

45 2014 Forecast Cone has Gone on a Diet Since 2004 Size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over the previous 5 years 2014 Forecast Cone

46 72-Hour Forecast Cone: 2004 vs Cone

47 What if Charley Followed Skinny Black Line? Radar Simulation Below

48 Project Phoenix Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council

49 The Role of your local NWS Forecast Office Analyze all the various products and forecasts Develop localized picture of timing and impact Communicate uncertainty and impacts so our customers can make informed decisions

50

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