Hurricane Charley: A Retrospective 2014 Florida Governor s Hurricane Conference
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1 Hurricane Charley: A Retrospective 2014 Florida Governor s Hurricane Conference
2 2004 Hurricane Season: Storm Tracks
3 Satellite Images of 2004 Hurricanes Charley Frances Ivan Jeanne
4 Three Hurricanes in Polk County in 1 Year! Last Hurricane was in 1960
5 2004 Hurricane Season Statistics First system formed July 31, 2004 Last system dissipated December 5, 2004 Strongest storm Ivan, 165 mph (270 km/h) Total depressions 16 Total storms 15 Hurricanes 9 Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) 6 Total fatalities Total damage $44 billion in U.S.
6 2004 Storms That Hit Florida Name Dates Max Wind Direct Deaths U.S. Damage Bonnie Aug mph 3 Minor Charley Aug mph 15 $15.1 billion Frances Aug 25 Sep mph 7 $9.5 billion Ivan Sep mph 91 $18.8 billion Jeanne Sep mph 3,000+ $7 billion
7 2004 Hurricane Fatalities in Florida Storm Surge Wind/Wave Tornado Flood Wind Wave 32 direct hurricane deaths 91 indirect deaths The most since the 1935 Labor Day hurricane that hit the Florida Keys!
8 91 Indirect Fatalities Stress (15) Cleanup Debris Removal Roof Repair Power (23) 25% 38% 16% Cleanup (34) 13% 8% Total: 91 Indirect Fatalities Data: Florida Medical Examiners Commission Motor Vehicle (12) Other (7) Power Related Carbon Monoxide Candle Fire Electrocution Stress Related Heart Attack Suicide Storm Preparations Motor Vehicle Accident Roadway Obstruction Traffic Signal Outage Other Note: Not a comprehensive list of causes
9 2004 Hurricane Charley Daniel Noah NWS Tampa Bay Wayne Sallade Charlotte County EM Scott Spratt NWS Melbourne
10
11 Costliest U.S. Atlantic Hurricanes Adjusted for Inflation 9 of the Top 10 have occurred in the last ten years Charley in Florida - 9 direct fatalities - 20 indirect fatalities
12 Newspaper Headlines
13 Television Coverage
14 Charley Was Mainly a Wind Event Arcadia, FL
15 Newspaper Headline Perception is Reality Yellow Dots Actual Position
16 Storm Size Matters Determined by distance from center to outermost closed isobar <120 miles Very small/ midget Charley miles Small Allison miles Average Frances miles Large Wilma >480 miles Very large Gilbert weather.gov/tampabay
17 2004 Charley Size vs 1988 Gilbert Max Diameter of T.S. Force Winds 488 Miles weather.gov/tampabay
18 Charley vs Frances Wind Field Orange/Purple = Hurricane Wind, Green/Yellow = Tropical Storm Charley 2004 Frances 2004
19 2004 Hurricane Charley Landfall on Friday, August 13 Fast moving storm at 20 mph weather.gov/tampabay wunderground archive
20 2004 Hurricane Charley Makes Landfall
21 Very Small Eye Wall Damage Similar to 20 Mile Wide F2 Tornado
22 Charley Enters Charlotte Harbor Notice the moat
23 Hurricanes vs Mobile Homes
24 Boca Grande
25 Captiva
26 Hardee County No electricity in county for 9 days
27 The Power of Flowing Water
28
29 Dangers of Flooding from Heavy Rains Lannis Waters The Palm Beach Post A man was killed when his car went into the water covered hole on Highway 60 near Lake Wales during Charley
30 Charley Brought Out Different Sides of People
31 I Was in the Lee County Emergency Operations Center
32 How About Hurricane Intensity Forecasts? Over 23 years No improvement in first 24 hours Little improvement at 48 and 72 hours Big improvement at 96 and 120 hours
33 Damage Crossed Florida Tampa * Arcadia
34 All we could hear was yelling and screaming as widespread panic set in Widespread Panic I never felt so helpless and small in all my life. David Gaylord St. Petersburg, FL ~1,400 people were in this auditorium Photo Courtesy of Scott Moe
35 Hurricane Charley Well Inland
36 Surge and Wind Probabilities
37 Wind Probabilities Were Not Available in 2014 Chances of hurricaneforce winds at Tampa Bay and Port Charlotte are both around 30%
38 2004 Hurricane Charley s Eye Wall was Tiny 12 mile wide eye wall 7 ft surge
39 What if Charley was a Normal Size Storm? 50 mile wide eye wall 18 ft
40 New Surge Product Harnessing the power of Social Science and input from key partners in the Media and Emergency Management
41 Experimental Storm Surge Inundation Map Available on NHC website at Created when warning issued, about 48 hours before impact 45 to 60 minutes after Advisory issued Updated every 6 hours
42 Storm Surge Maps are in High Tide Example of 1-in-10 chance of water depth Not the worse case but a realistic worse case based on current storm
43 On NHC Website at Hurricanes.gov Fact Sheets Public Media Emergency Management
44 NWS Tampa Bay Social Media US.NationalWeatherService.TampaBay.gov
45 2014 Forecast Cone has Gone on a Diet Since 2004 Size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over the previous 5 years 2014 Forecast Cone
46 72-Hour Forecast Cone: 2004 vs Cone
47 What if Charley Followed Skinny Black Line? Radar Simulation Below
48 Project Phoenix Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council
49 The Role of your local NWS Forecast Office Analyze all the various products and forecasts Develop localized picture of timing and impact Communicate uncertainty and impacts so our customers can make informed decisions
50
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